[New Square 10] Ukra, Russia's first hit...Putin counters 'nuclear card'

■ Host: Anchor Park Seok-won
■ Starring: Former Ambassador to Russia and Ukraine Park Roh-byeok

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Ukrainian forces first attacked the Russian mainland using a long-range missile, Attax. Tensions are rising more than 1,000 days after the war began. Let's talk in detail with former Ambassador Park Roh-byeok, who served as ambassador to both Russia and Ukraine. Please come in.

[No wall]
How are you?

[Anchor]
First of all, with the US approved of use, Ukraine attacked the Russian mainland for the first time, how bad is the damage?

[No wall]
It is now known that they have attacked an arms depot on the Bryansk side of Russia. There were about 12 explosions, and it was a place where ballistic missiles and ammunition received by Russia from North Korea were stored, so it was determined that they hit the expected target. Six of them were fired, five of which were probably intercepted by Russian air defense missiles and one hit, which is known to have caused a chain reaction.

[Anchor]
You said that you hit the expected target, but weren't there observations that expected other Kursk regions before that? Why was it Bryansk, not Kursk?

[No wall]
That's where Bryansk is right next door to Kursk. The White House said that the U.S. is also targeting Kursk, but that it responded with the North Korean military's dispatch in mind. So, I think it was a weapon from North Korea, a weapon that will be used in the Kursk region in the future, and hit it.

[Anchor]
If it was a protest against the dispatch of North Korean troops, it could have been Kursk, where North Korean troops are stationed, but should it be considered that the level has still been adjusted?

[No wall]
That's right. I think it should be viewed as a warning message. There's also the quantity of Atax missiles that Ukraine can use right now, so we'll have to wait and see.Ma is believed to have been sent as a warning in the form of announcing it in advance because there is a possibility that the battlefield will become very fierce.

[Anchor]
Russia has eased the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons in four years as a counter-offensive, but isn't it that Putin approved the revision of the nuclear use doctrine? What is it about?

[No wall]
That's what was already known during the security conference on September 25th. There are two main differences. One is that a country like Ukraine, which does not possess nuclear weapons, attacked Russia with support from Western nuclear powers, such as Britain, France, and the United States, and became a very serious threat. If you look at the difference from the past, if this poses a threat to the existence of a country, it has significantly strengthened what happened. The second is the use of conventional weapons, but there are many different types of conventional weapons.It's amazing that Ma includes drones among them. However, for Russia, it is first of all strong that it is a threat to control Western weapons support in the war. In fact, nuclear weapons are maintained by the balance of use of nuclear weapons, which means deterrence, but it is not that urgent and difficult enough to use nuclear weapons, so this is now read as a warning or an intention to put pressure on the West, and the White House is also known to read it that way.

[Anchor]
So if Ukraine were to attack us with the help of the U.S. or the U.K., or even if we were to strike a drone strike, we could use nuclear weapons, which was a revision of this doctrine. We always talk about the core content whenever the lease of a depository leans little by little. What are the chances of this?

[No wall]
As I said now, the possibility is not very high at the moment because Russia currently has the upper hand in the battlefield. Instead, it seems to be interpreted as an expression of displeasure or anger at the fact that a long-range 300-kilometer-flying missile called Ae-Tax has attacked mainland Russia. The Russian senator also gave an additional explanation for this. This is for nuclear stability, but it doesn't seem to be enough to use nuclear weapons in the context of the battlefield. This can be seen as an expression of anger within Russia over the use of long-range missiles.

[Anchor]
In terms of range in the war between Russia and Ukraine, isn't Ukraine's weight class a little higher? What will happen to the fighting situation in the future?

[No wall]
The fighting situation is expected to become very intense until President-elect Trump takes office on January 20 next year. Because Trump said it was 24 hours in a short time.Ma said he would make the end of the war, so in order to make the end of the war, it is frozen around the current defense line and the current front line.
So it's the same for Russia and Ukraine, but it's going to be fierce because we're trying to get the upper hand in each other's negotiations and expand the front line as much as possible. Ukraine is at a disadvantage for now. Because Russia has more troops and much more ammunition or weapons than Ukraine, it could already retreat 30 to 35 kilometers further in the Donbas region. The provision of long-range missiles seems to be a measure to move in the direction of having to go toward a deadlock, as there are aspects that the Russian military can push in. If Russia really wants to end this war, it needs to reduce the tension. However, I think the principle of the battlefield will continue until just before the ceasefire.

[Anchor]
The battle between the two sides has become a little more intense, but the war will continue until Trump takes office, and the reason for this prediction is that the war will end after Trump takes office. Is that possible? Is the war frozen right after taking office? [No way] You can't freeze it right away.As the anchor said, we have to meet each other's conditions. The conditions should be right, but Trump said it easily, saying that it will not be able to continue because it will give more weapons to Russia, and that he will accept this because he will not provide weapons to Ukraine. This is not a situation where weapons alone can end the war. There's this difficulty of how you're going to guarantee security and then how you're going to give Ukraine status.Ma is likely to have some political will because President Trump is in his early term and strong.

[Anchor]
With the North Korean military dispatched now, the relationship with us is growing even more. President Zelensky's special delegation is scheduled to visit South Korea as early as next week. How should the South Korean government respond?

[No wall]
You've also been discussing between the G20 and Korea, the U.S., and Japan, but it seems that President Biden of the U.S. is trying to use up $6.1 billion before January 20th. It's noticeable that $6.1 billion is providing a lot of weapons. Third, there are some restrictions or conditions under our domestic law. Since there are restrictions on trade laws and defense business laws, I think the West will consider various things comprehensively, considering how to lead the security of the Korean Peninsula after the war, relations with Russia, and relations with Ukraine, rather than our direct intervention in the war in Ukraine.

[Anchor]
Ukrainian President Zelensky mentioned the possibility that up to 100,000 North Korean troops will be sent, what do you think about this?

[No wall]
The Ukrainian side should continue to raise the threat of the North Korean military. Only then can we expect to contribute to control of the North Korean military. That's a family thing.Ma is now 10,000 people in terms of being able to rotate if the war is longer and the ceasefire negotiations are longer, but I think we can talk about the possibility now if we take this out every three to four months and then bring in 10,000 people and increase it like this. Or maybe we can add more reinforcements. Because Russia is a little short of troops because almost 700,000 soldiers have been injured or killed. However, in light of the previous trends, we should continue to send the message that the North Korean military should not be accepted more so as not to make the situation worse in the United States or Europe, and we should respond in that way.

[Anchor]
The war in Ukraine has already passed 1,000 days. If there are any variables in the future when North Korean troops have been dispatched and long-range missiles have been launched, what will be the variables?

[No wall]
It's very important what this situation will look like. Whether it's a peace negotiation or an end to the war, we always try to have some room for each other to gain some advantage. This should be a deadlock to some extent. It will only happen if there is a deadlock. From Putin's point of view, time is on my side, no matter what Trump says, I can win if I keep going, this is hard to end the war. So the flow of the front line is the most important, and secondly, Trump will probably appoint an envoy. Through that special envoy, we should talk not only to both sides, but also to Europe. Through these various consultations, I will think about two variables, not just the end of the war, but the way peace can continue after the war.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. So far, we've been with former Ambassador Park No-byeok. Thank you.