Starting next year, the supply of apartments in the Seoul metropolitan area will become a reality...House prices are going up and down again?

Starting in the Seoul metropolitan area next year, the 'supply cliff' is expected to become a reality.

Shortage of supply is a factor in rising house prices...Pay attention to loan condition variables

Local Housing Market Starts Supply Decline From 2026

[Anchor]
Starting with the Seoul metropolitan area next year, it is predicted that the decrease in housing supply will begin in earnest.

The lack of supply is expected to be a factor in raising housing prices in the Seoul metropolitan area next year, and we should pay attention to changes in loan interest rates as well.

This is reporter Choi Doo-hee.

[Reporter]
As of the 18th, apartment prices nationwide turned downward for the first time in half a year.

Apartment prices in Seoul continued to rise for the 35th consecutive week, but Gyeonggi Province stopped rising for the first time in 25 weeks and Incheon turned downward for the first time in 34 weeks.

This is because buying has died down due to the influence of the government's loan regulations, and it is predicted that the "supply cliff" will become a reality starting in the Seoul metropolitan area next year.

The Korea Institute of Construction Industry predicts that the completion volume of apartments in the Seoul metropolitan area will be below the annual average of 156,000 households starting next year due to the decrease in construction of apartments in the Seoul metropolitan area, which began in 2022.

As non-apartments have already been on the decline since 2016, the overall housing supply in the metropolitan area is expected to be below the average of previous years starting next year.

This shortage of supply is considered a factor in the rise in housing prices in the Seoul metropolitan area next year.

However, interest rates and loan conditions are expected to act as important variables.

[Park Won-gap / KB Kookmin Bank Senior Real Estate Specialist: Shortage of supply insecurity may increase. However, market uncertainty could grow as prices have risen a lot, especially in Seoul, and lending thresholds could rise.]

The researcher predicts that the local housing market will also see a decline in the number of completion starting next year, but the decline in housing supply will begin in earnest from 2026.

In particular, he pointed out that the government's supply measures should maintain a stable policy stance from a long-term perspective as they are slow to take effect.

I'm Choi Doohee of YTN.

Video editing;Song Bo-hyun Design;Park Yoo-dong