[Economic PICK] Stimulating the Economy by Lowering Interest Rates?...External Variables 'Athletic'

Deciding the base rate on the 28th

Frozen or cut from 3.25%

Exchange rate and growth rate next year are key

[Anchor]
Let's look at the last keyword, the video.

As we saw earlier, as the economic outlook is bad, should we lower the base rate this time?

[Reporter]
In fact, looking at the domestic situation alone, interest rate cuts will inevitably weigh on it.

As you said, the economic outlook is not good.

Considering this, political circles are also calling for interest rates to be lowered to stimulate the economy.

On top of that, household debt and soaring housing prices, which made people hesitate to cut interest rates, also seem to have slowed down.

Consumer price growth slowed for two months to around 1%.

Considering this, there is a possibility of lowering interest rates this time following last month.

[Anchor]
Is it because of other variables that I'm not sure about?

[Reporter]
Yes, the external situation is not easy.

First of all, the won-dollar exchange rate is unstable.

It once exceeded 1,410 won, and it still goes back and forth around 1,400 won.

With Trump's return to power, which has put U.S. priority on it, the "strong dollar" trend is likely to continue.

In addition, the changing direction of U.S. monetary policy is also a burden on the Bank of Korea.

The Federal Reserve is making a tight statement, saying there is no need to hurry to cut interest rates.

If this happens, we have to pay attention to the difference in interest rates between Korea and the United States.

Now it's 1.5%p, but if we drop it this time, it's 1.75%.

Of course, there was a time when it reached 2%p, the largest ever.

However, as there is a lot of uncertainty from Trump, it is necessary to minimize other anxiety factors.

As a result, we need to see if the Bank of Korea tolerates a situation where the interest rate gap between Korea and the U.S. is widening amid exchange rate instability.

When I interviewed experts, there were many diagnoses that whether to risk such an adventure depends on next year's growth rate.

If next year's forecast falls to the 1% range, we will have no choice but to cut the benchmark interest rate,

If it's not that bad, the prevailing expectation was that it would freeze interest rates, which are currently 3.25% per annum.