Leading Rebuilding District, Price Surge? Expert "Kiwoo! Already Reflecting Market Prices, Market Trends 'Uljukshin'"

2024.11.28 PM 01:50
YTN Radio (FM 94.5) [YTN News FM Wise Radio Life]
□ Broadcast Date: November 28, 2024 (Thursday)
□ Host: Announcer Park Gui-bin
□ Castor: Park Won-gap, KB Kookmin Bank Senior Real Estate Specialist

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

◆ Announcer Park Gui-bin (hereinafter referred to as Park Gui-bin): We will continue with an interview again. The leading district for the first new city maintenance project has been announced. Thirty-six thousand households in 13 districts, including Bundang, Ilsan, Pyeongchon, Middle East, and Sanbon, were selected. Expectations are growing that the reconstruction project will begin in earnest as the government has come up with various supports to expedite the project. Let's find out about it. Let's call Park Won-gap, a senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, to talk. How are you, Commissioner?

◇Park Won-gap, senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank (hereinafter referred to as Park Won-gap): Yes, hello.

◆Park Gui-bin: Originally, the planned volume was about 26,000 households, but more were designated. What kind of background do you think it was?

◇Park Won-gap: First of all, the residents were willing to rebuild. I think it's a policy reflection. As you said earlier, 35,897 households were designated as leading districts this time, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport initially suggested about 26,000 to 39,000 households. So, it's almost full and we've designated the leading district. You can look at it like this.

◆Park Gui-bin: Among the first new cities, 13 districts that will be the first to start reconstruction were confirmed and announced yesterday. As far as I know, it was selected after fierce competition. And the criteria for being selected as a leading district were also revealed. They get a high resident consent rate. Why did I do that?

◇Park Won-gap: When we release it. The resident consent rate was the highest at 60 points. Because this reconstruction has to work together. There should be no noise. So I'm going to think highly of the will of the residents. That's what I did. So this time, we did a quantitative evaluation. So you can just look at it like this with the numbers, but as I said earlier, the resident consent rate was the most important, but I don't think it was a factor that determined the outcome this time. It's because there have been a series of perfect complexes. So in Bundang, there were 10 perfect areas where the resident consent rate exceeded 95%. So, other regions are also looking at the fact that maybe other variables have more influence than the agreement rate determines the outcome.

◆Park Gui-bin: What else did you see other than the consent rate when you were selected this time? Then the decision to lose earlier was made under conditions other than the consent rate.

◇ Park Won-gap: That's right. For example, items such as public contributions may have had a more impact.

◆Park Gui-bin: If it is selected as a leading district, it will be rebuilt first. But what other advantages do you have besides that?

◇ Park Won-gap: It's a kind of symbolism that leads to reconstruction. And it also has the advantage of being a landmark, but if you go to a new city, there's a demonstration complex. You can say that it's getting more attention. This time, the competition ratio was 7.6 to 1. As much as that, there seems to be an aspect that can be evaluated higher in that region. And this time, the reconstruction is basically a little fast track. So, I think there is an advantage to doing it quickly through various administrative support.

◆Park Gui-bin: Among the places selected as the leading district, Bundang is the place that receives the most attention. Also, I heard that competition was the most intense in the selection process. What's the reason?

◇Park Won-gap: Wasn't there a lot of expectations for the development? But if you look closely at the reconstruction, Basically, you can think of a place with high land prices as having good business feasibility. They usually say they renovate their house. If it's new, it won't be. But the problem is that we have to match profitability. Then the number of households won't increase. If so, it's a general sale. Then, isn't construction costs similar anywhere? That's a cost concept, so in the end, you have to sell it including the land price at the sale price. Then, the land price is higher when the sale price is higher, so you can think of it as a profit. That's why reconstruction is mainly active in the Gangnam area. Most of the non-Gangnam areas are slow. Because the land price is cheap, I think you can look at it like that. So, I believe that any reconstruction of this new city can be a significant wind tunnel for reconstruction projects in the future. But if you look at the first new city this time, Bundang is the same. In order to be designated as a leading district, I promised to make various public contributions and said that I would make a lot of parking lots, and I also wrote a very high percentage of rental housing. Next, it's a factor that affects business feasibility. Then you can say that the contribution that the residents have to pay could increase further. So, as you said, Bundang has a lot of expectations, so the market price has risen a little recently. However, given that other regions do not have such a big response, is it a differentiation between regions surrounding this reconstruction? Or maybe there will be some disputes later on. I'm also thinking about this.

◆Park Gui-bin: As you just said, you mentioned the contribution. I think this could be the biggest obstacle in a way, but in the case of the first new city, there are many elderly people, so how do you see the contribution? How do you think the agreement will be reached?

◇ Park Won-gap: There are many contributions. First of all, to build a new apartment, people say that it's 9 million won per 3.3 square meters. If you look at it two to three years ago, it almost doubled. In addition, there is another levy under the reconstruction excess profit recovery system. But if you look closely at the reconstruction. It's different from redevelopment. Basically, you can think of it as a project to improve the residential environment through market logic. It's kind of a financial technology business. Profitability is the most important factor, and as you said, there is something left after paying the contribution. If this happens, the power of reconstruction may decrease a little, and if many elderly people who cannot afford to pay the contribution live, there is a possibility that the development will be slower. I want to say that there are many things to consider.

◆Park Gui-bin: In the case of reconstruction, can't the contribution increase now that the construction cost and such are covered by the general sales revenue and contributions? It's more than I thought at first.

◇ Park Won-gap: That could happen. But it's true that the atmosphere is getting a little better. Because the government also gives various floor area ratio incentives. And then, it means that we're going to provide various funds and things like this. But today's benchmark interest rate has been lowered.

◆Park Gui-bin: Yes, he dropped 0.25 percentage points.

◇ Park Won-gap: That's why it's now 3%. I think it will be lowered once or twice next year, so if this happens, migration costs are a little less interest-bearing. And it is said that construction costs have increased a little recently, but recently, there is something that calms down a little. So, business feasibility may be slightly improved, but there is still some uncertainty.

◆Park Gui-bin: The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is also considering a support plan for the contribution, but no specific support plan has been released yet, right?

◇Park Won-gap: It's still coming out in detail, but for now, we're going to create a future city fund to secure funds for the initial stage of the business.

◆Park Gui Bin: That's right.

◇ Park Won-gap: So I will provide stable financial support. Then, we need to install the infrastructure. In this case, I will provide early support. And there are a lot of conflicts in reconstruction. Then, how will you calculate the contribution? What is the standard? When doing this, I will make sure that we can evaluate it fairly through real estate. I think the biggest factor is this re-involved levy issue, as I said. It could be the final gateway. This is paid when moving in, so the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport actually announced that it would abolish the re-invitation in the 88th measure. However, the opposition party has yet to pass the National Assembly due to opposition, but there are many people who have lived in the first new city for a long time now. However, for long-term homeowners, a 10% discount is given for six years for each holding period. Then, if you have lived for more than 20 years, 70% is now being reduced. This is good for long-term residents, but people who have recently come in may not think so. There is still a slight point of dispute over the contribution between members. You can think of it as this.

◆Park Gwi-bin: You're right. When the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced the leading district yesterday, it also announced the support plan. It will create a 12 trillion won future city punt and lower financial costs. We also announced that we will provide guarantees so that we can receive private investment necessary for reconstruction projects. But I think the important thing is now the migration measures. There are concerns about the migration crisis, and there are also concerns that if demand suddenly spills out into the monthly rent market, the price will surge. How do you see it?

◇ Park Won-gap: I think there is a possibility that it will be a raincoat. So roughly speaking, it will speed up when it comes to money. It may not speed up when money is not available. In the end, it can be said that profitability determines, but Gangnam is not working right now. In this situation, whether the business will proceed so fast that we are worried about the migration crisis and at the same time? There is a possibility that this will happen, but I don't think the probability is that high. First of all, from the government's point of view, it has decided not to supply complexes or houses exclusively for migrants, but now they have to start moving in 2026. Then, from the government's point of view, we need to prepare something, but I think we will announce a comprehensive migration plan sometime next week.

◆Park Gui-bin: You said you saw a rise in monthly rent prices due to the migration crisis as unfounded, so what do you think will be the impact on the housing prices caused by the announcement of the new city's leading district?

◇ Park Won-gap: I don't think it will have that much of an impact. In the case of Bundang, prices have risen a little ahead of the designation of the leading district. There is a side that reflects the expectations of development, but the rest of the region has not changed much. So, the market has already risen a little, so in the future, should I say that it's a big rebound? It seems a little difficult to expect a price increase, but the trend in the market right now is not reconstruction. Recently, the word "eoljukshin" has not become popular. Even if you freeze to death, there are high expectations for a new house, centered on new construction. So, it's often said that it's mainly an investment in reconstruction, but this has changed slightly to a trend of finding a new house unconditionally these days, mainly for x generations and older generations. But anyway, since I have special materials, I'm expecting that if I'm undergoing a little adjustment now, it will have a price defense effect.

◆Park Gui-bin: We have 30 seconds left. There are other first-generation new city organizations that were not included in the leading district this time. What happens to the places that are eliminated? Can I look forward to the additional designation?

◇Park Won-gap: Out of the applications this time, 117,000 households, or 76.5%, were eliminated. However, from the government's point of view, there is an expectation that housing will be selected collectively through a public offering method, but I don't think so. For now, I think I'll take suggestions from residents. So, I think that we will go in a way that allows reconstruction within the maintenance volume by year. Because it can be a little uneasy from the standpoint of the eliminated complexes. However, I think local governments should probably look at ways to lead reconstruction like this.

◆Park Gwibin: I see. Until now, Park Won-gap was a senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank. Thank you.

◇ Park Won-gap: Thank you.


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