North Korea's "South Korean UAV penetrates Pyongyang"...Actually? Building a justification?

■ Host: Lee Se-na Anchor
■ Starring: Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea has launched another trash balloon provocation, claiming that South Korean drones penetrated Pyongyang over three days. What is North Korea's claim and aim? Let's take a look at it with Cho Han-beom, a chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. How are you? Yesterday, the North Korean Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that South Korean drones had penetrated Pyongyang. What is it specifically about?

[Cho Han-beom]
I made a statement last night. And the title was a critical statement. It was paid by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Usually, this kind of military security is provided by the General Staff or the Ministry of National Defense. However, what the Foreign Ministry said is that it is a state-to-state relationship. Chairman Kim Jong-un's two-state theory is seen as clarifying it. According to the contents, drones penetrated three times on the 3rd, 9th, and 10th at night, and Jung-gu Station in Pyongyang and Jung-gu Station in Pyongyang are the most important areas. It's about distributing leaflets at Jung-gu Station. And I even took pictures. I think it was filmed on TOD, but I revealed it. Then we can look at some possibilities for this, and it's possible that it's North Korea's own play, and the first one. The second is likely to have been done by our private organization, and the third is likely to have been done by our authorities, but I don't think I'm from our authorities. There's no reason to do it now, in many ways. Then, the possibility of private organizations seems to be greater. Because there is enough technology.
But in many ways, he took the right picture at that point. That's not how you normally spread leaflets. If you look at it that way, it was also reported in the Rodong Sinmun. Then if you report in the Rodong Sinmun, oh, we have a hole in the sky. Jung-gu Station is where Kim Jong-un's office is. Then we're sloppy in many ways, and there can be side effects like this. Nevertheless, if you cause such a situation like that, you can raise tension. So it can further strengthen the hostile two-state theory. So the most likely thing is our private organization. The second is a self-written drama. And then lastly, our authorities seem highly unlikely.

[Anchor]
So, it means that it is more likely that our private organization did it than North Korea's own drama. You think it's reliable when you see the photo released, right?

[Cho Han-beom]
First of all, the photos are reliable. That's how I do it. But the questionable thing is that I took the right picture at that point. And the other thing is that when you spray leaflets, they're tied up. But they usually spray leaflets from the sky. But that one fell out as it was. And some of the barrels were broken, but if they fell to the ground at that weight, the barrel would have been smashed. Of course, it can get caught on a tree branch or something. From that point of view, it seems that the contents and such are true, but the subject of the action has both possibilities.

[Anchor]
It is highly likely that our private organization did it, but there are some parts that are unclear?

[Cho Han-beom]
The contents of the leaflets are a little different from the usual leaflets. Because how much is it when you buy food as a weapon. The content isn't that stimulating. Usually, when North Korean defector groups send it, it contains much more fatal and impactful content to the Kim Jong-un regime. If you look at it that way, it would be better to open up more possibilities for now.

[Anchor]
The South Korean military immediately refuted North Korea's claim by saying that it did not do so at first, but later made this official position that it could not be confirmed. I think there was some confusion.

[Cho Han-beom]
If you look at the contents at face value, the Minister of Defense and the military authorities said that it did not happen directly. It's impossible to do that without permission from the Minister of Defense. Then that's a life expectancy. But I changed my position a little later, so I can't check it. That means I can't confirm whether I spent it here or in the north. Because my military would have caught me moving on from here. Because we also captured North Korea. Our air defense is much stronger than North Korea's.
Then I think we're talking about that. We didn't. Our military. But I can't confirm this part if it's been exchanged. Then North Korea must be aware of it. That our authorities would not have done. If you look at it in that sense, you can put pressure on North Korea while maintaining some kind of strategic ambiguity. rather than clarifying It should be considered that level. The defense minister said it wasn't, but when I looked into it, I did, then it would be a mess.

[Anchor]
According to the representative of the North Korean defectors' group, there will be no organization to send drones due to cost issues, but if it was sent from the private sector as you said, wouldn't it be difficult for the South Korean government?

[Cho Han-beom]
There are two. First of all, I think it's a cost issue, but I don't think so. This is because North Korean defector groups also put USB or dollars when they send leaflet balloons. One USB is 5,000 won, 10,000 won is 10 million won if it's 1,000 won. So sending a balloon costs more than you think. But that drone itself costs only about 3 million won. In addition, navigation systems, GPS, and flyers are only about 1 million won even if you take about 50,000 pictures. So, from my estimation, the price of that drone will not exceed 5 million won. Then it's much cheaper than the dozens of balloons sent by North Korean defector groups. So it's hard for me to agree that I can't send it because of economic costs. Rather, balloons are inefficient. I don't know where I'm going to go, I don't know where By the way, even if you send only one of them, it comes back with accurate navigation. So that's a lot more economical. I can't do it because of cost issues. But the problem is that under our constitution, North Korea is our territory, but under international law, it is a separate country that has joined the UN. Then, under international law, airspace invasion is a problem for organizations, but that is clearly intended because it is equipped with an engine. He invaded the airspace he wanted. Then this creates a legal problem.

[Anchor]
So when you cross the airspace, balloons and drones are completely different problems?

[Cho Han-beom]
I'm sure that's deliberately invading the airspace. But in the case of balloons, you don't know where they're going to go. So it can be slightly diluted. But that doesn't mean balloons are free from international law. Why? There was a time when Chinese organizations went all the way to the United States and became a problem. However, engineered aircraft are much more likely to be illegal because their airspace invasion is intentionally clearer.

[Anchor]
Then, if a private organization sent a drone, how should our government respond to the problem that could even violate international law?

[Cho Han-beom]
It gets a little complicated. This is because although it is a violation of international law, North Korea is our territory under domestic law. So in many ways, complex problems arise that are difficult to clearly define. What is certain, however, is that such an act itself will certainly raise tensions between the two Koreas much more than balloons. So it's not desirable from our government's point of view. Because accidental armed conflict caused by that and North Korea's provocations are all possible. And what North Korea is most afraid of is leaflets, which they are now scattered in the center of Pyongyang. I'm saying that I sprayed a lot. Then, if that's true, all Pyongyang residents will know. So, there is a possibility that it was also disclosed in the Rodong Sinmun. Then if that happens repeatedly, North Korea will definitely respond to it to prevent it. In the past, there have been cases where you go to the tee shot, collide, and end with a conversation. So, if it's a matter of fact behind closed doors or if North Korea didn't respond, we need to manage our tension if we change the situation and respond like that.

[Anchor]
I mentioned that North Korea will be prepared for all means of attack, saying it is an ultimatum warning, what do you think about the possibility of an armed provocation in the future?

[Cho Han-beom]
First of all, if you look at the contents of the important statement, you point out that all causes are leaflets. That's why we use the expression "criminals." If you guess carefully, it seems that North Korea intends to hit the origin if it captures what has been done such as leaflets. So, although various types of provocations are possible, the possibility of accidental clashes in the border area is the highest, and they have fired in the past. For example, I have fired at leaflets and shot 14.5mm anti-aircraft guns. It is not easy to make high-intensity strategic provocations because there have been various kinds of provocations. Because we're going into an act of engagement right away. But I'll do something that reveals some kind of presence. From now on, it is important to pay attention to tension management and situation management. Private organizations also need to cooperate in managing tensions to some extent.

[Anchor]
For now, we have no choice but to make an estimate, but if our private organization sent us drones, can our government check which private organization did it? [Cho Han Beom] I can't check it out right now. Because unless North Korea sends gas or evidence. Of course, a few organizations have been preparing for that work. But it wasn't that way. As far as I know, it was a much more advanced way than that. I spray it on my way. I heard that there is an organization that seeks a way to spray and return rather than drop it in one place. But I just dropped that thin one. So, if you look at it in terms of utility, it has a great psychological shock effect, but there are two possibilities. One is sprinkled with some and the other is just a falling mass. But I don't know exactly which method I used, but it's not that efficient if you look at the ones that fell. If you see it sprayed from the sky, it just falls in a line. From that point of view, I don't think it's a professional group, you can see it like this.

[Anchor]
North Korea issued a statement on drones. At the same time, we started spraying the 28th garbage balloon, and gunpowder came out of the garbage balloon and various damages were occurring everywhere. Wouldn't there be another bigger threat in the future?

[Cho Han-beom]
It's originally used by our private organization. If the balloon goes, shouldn't we cut it off? It generates heat from the nichrome wire and cuts it off with a heating device. However, North Korea's recent discovery of gunpowder seems to be aiming for a small-scale explosion effect. If there was gunpowder, if confirmed. As a result of fever, what North Korea sends is mainly paper waste. It's because it generates heat and causes a fire. However, if you use gunpowder, the possibility of fire increases. The bigger problem is that the damage is minor so far, but for example, high-speed trains, express buses, highways, aircraft, flammable materials, LPG storage, etc. There is a risk of a major accident. So, even if North Korea does not intentionally put explosives or anything like that, the current situation alone continues to do so. It's my 28th time. It was 11 times from May 28th to August 11th, but it's already 17 times from September 4th. Then I'm just sending it from time to time.

Then, the risk of a major accident is increasing. If that happens, the conflict intensifies in many ways. We can't help but respond. So what North Korea is sending now is not a response to our fliers but a response to our military's psychological warfare broadcast. Why? In autumn and winter, the south wind doesn't blow, not to the north. The north wind and the south wind blow. So, mainly North Korea's psychological response to stop our military psychological warfare broadcasts is garbage balloons. It became a conflict of response between authorities. Although the trigger was caused by a private organization. North Korea also keeps saying that it doesn't want to worsen the conflict now. So now, we talk even during the war. Ukraine and Russia also talk and exchange prisoners. The South and North Korean authorities should open military channels. You have to open it and prevent it from going into an armed conflict now. So in many ways, I'm trying to manage my tension. It is a situation where we need to pay more attention to tension management. Rather than a strong confrontation. That's how you see it.

[Anchor]
You need to open a conversation channel. On the other hand, he said that he would cut off everything connected to us, such as roads and railroads, and proceed with fortification work. What is the intention of this part?

[Cho Han-beom]
North Korea declared this nationalism. It's a hostile two-state theory. Some of us agree on the two-state theory, but this state theory that North Korea is talking about is not peaceful coexistence, but a shift to a two-state theory that is at war. I'm saying I'm going back to war. Kim Yo-jeong herself has already declared that she is a full-fledged enemy of ∀. So if we turn to war relations, we should be ready for war. So I think the No. 1 combat posture on the front line is probably a month old. So it's kind of building a bulwark. completely distinct from us So we're building structures that are advantageous in combat activities. It's trying to separate the state completely. You have to look at it like this. [Anchor] By the way, North Koreans are continuing to defect despite the fortification work?

[Cho Han-beom]
The reason is that fortification is not to prevent North Korean defectors, but rather to defend themselves. The preparation for war is much larger. It's structurally difficult to escape now. There are double and triple barbed wire fences between North Korea and China, and there is a semi-spacing method in China, making it difficult to operate. It's hard for brokers to operate. Brokers won't move even if the cost of defection goes up to 100 million won. Then, Russia was able to defect, but Russia is rather arresting North Korean defectors and handing them over to North Korea due to close ties between North Korea and Russia. That's why North Korea and China are completely blocked. But internally, it's the worst economic situation. It's the worst. So there are a lot of push factors. You can't go north, so you're coming down south. The sea is open. So, if we block the structure, it will be difficult to do land MDL and military demarcation line, but there will be more boat people on the sea side. If a large amount of boat people is generated, that is a terminal symptom. There were already two last year.

toward the West and the East. Towards Ganghwa Island in the West Sea in May. And then in October, towards Goseong. Then, in August this year, toward Gyodongdo Island. And there was another one near Goseong. In October last year, we went to the East Sea raft. But this time, we rode a wooden boat again. Then this is boat people. Then, because of internal pressure, you can't go north, so you'll come down south, and the DMZ has been blocked, so there will be more sea defection.

[Anchor]
Didn't North Korea hold the Supreme People's Assembly on the 7th? At this time, there were many expectations that the constitutional amendment would be made, but there was no specific information and Kim Jong-un did not attend.

[Cho Han-beom]
In a plenary session at the end of last year, Chairman Kim Jong-un turned the two Koreas into war relations and hostile relations, and then ordered three things in a speech to the Supreme People's Assembly on January 15. Separate our borders. Then delete the concept of unification and nationality. Where? In the Constitution. Originally, it should have opened in April, but it opened on October 7th and 8th. But in the end, I couldn't revise it. Some say that it was revised, but even if it was revised, I don't think the three things I'm talking about have been included. Because first, Kim Jong-un didn't attend. Second, when the concept of territory, ethnicity, and unification is erased, the secretary in charge of propaganda and instigation of the Labor Party is in charge of this. But this person didn't attend either. Cho Yong-hoon, a heavyweight, didn't attend either. Then, in the absence of all these key figures and the core of power, the concept of unification and nationality was deleted, and the border was deleted.
So instead, Kim Jong-un went to Kim Jong-un's military university and said this. I spoke of two national theories. It's creepy to be aware of in the south. I will never face you.

But I didn't talk about unification, national concept, or territorial concept. And when the General Staff of the People's Army reported, the southern border, then the territory of the Republic of Korea, then the territory of their sovereignty, was used vaguely. So two-state theory. We'll live separately. Chairman Kim Jong-un's real intention is to maintain a dictatorship. I talked about it, but it seems that the unification, the deletion of the national concept, and territorial regulations were not touched.

[Anchor]
So it would be difficult to explain to the residents the removal of nationality and unification. There's also an analysis like this.

[Cho Han-beom]
It's not difficult, it's impossible. Because Kim Il Sung's Juche ideology is a nationalist communist ideology. Of course, I didn't use the concept of ethnicity much before the 1980s, but I use it after the 1980s. In that way, if you erase the nationality and unification, you are destroying your grandfather. I'm trying to be a deputy. Then, you are Baekdu bloodstream, and Baekdu Mountain is an anti-Japanese partisan, and Baekdu Mountain is the unification of the motherland and the people. He took a picture of himself on the top of his foot. I'm the only one who wants to maintain dictatorship, I understand what I want to do up to this point, but I can't contain this because I want to delete the concept of unification and nationality. Even North Korean defectors get angry when they see it. It doesn't even work for North Koreans. So it's a mistake to spit it out. The failure to revise the constitution this time will cause fatal damage to authority.

[Anchor]
I see. I've heard that the conflict is getting worse, and we need to open a conversation channel first. So far, we have reviewed the North Korean issue with Cho Han-beom, a chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Thank you.