Ukra Releases Video of Estimated North Korean Forces in Forces Korea...The authenticity?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Lee Ho-ryeong, Director of the Security Strategy Center of the Korea Institute for Defense Development

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN 24] when quoting.

[Anchor]
This is a Korean Peninsula review time to analyze North Korean issues and diplomatic security news on the Korean Peninsula in depth. Today, Dr. Lee Ho-ryeong, head of the Security Strategy Center at the Korea Defense Institute, came out. Welcome.


Hello,

[Anchor]
I think we should talk about sending troops to Ukraine first, but is this the first time North Korea is sending troops like this? It's my first time. It's the first time we've sent a large-scale troops. If you look at it now, according to the announcement by the National Intelligence Service, doesn't it mean that from October 8th to 13th, Russia's naval ships came in and carried North Korean troops out? So it's the first time since 1990 that the Russian navy has come in.

So it was reported that about 1,500 people are now going to four regions of Russia. [Anchor] How can we guess the size of the troop dispatch or what role it will play when it goes?


Hasn't there been a lot of reports of North Korea providing military supplies and actually weapons systems used in the war in Ukraine? 122mm artillery shells, 155mm artillery shells, lightning-4 shells, and new short-range missiles KN-23 newly developed by North Korea have already been used, and the performance of them has already been reported in the media.

The amount entered through the container has reached 16,000 times on 70 occasions, and 8 million artillery shells have been used in the war in Ukraine, and North Korea's artillery and supplies have been provided tremendously. The size announced by the National Intelligence Service now is about 1,500 people sent in the first round and will be added in the future, so you can think that a large part of the North Korean military will be deployed to the combat zone.

[Anchor]
It is said that it was filmed in the Russian Primorsky Krai, but a video that is believed to be a North Korean military has also been released. According to various reports, the words used by the North Korean military are recorded as they are, and how do you guess the authenticity of them?


First of all, 1,500 North Korean soldiers are in Vladivostok and several places. If you look at it, there are four North Korean troops in Vladivostok, Usisk, Khabarovsk, Blako, and Bainsk, and if you look at it now, you can see that the recorded voice came out in the process of training at Sergeevsky Training Center between Khabarovsk and Usisk, saying, "Let's go together when we go eat."

[Anchor]
It's quite credible. In a way, it is presumed to be in training, you can see it like this. In the past, North Korea reportedly sent only military support groups like this, but it sent troops to Russia in earnest. What does this mean for North Korea?


I think it's going to have a lot of meanings. Before that, North Korea used to conduct training exercises or support digging through military advisers in Africa and the Middle East to make money, but now President Putin said it was a special military operation related to the war in Ukraine.

However, receiving the dispatch of a third country, North Korea, to one place called a special military operation means that Russia acknowledges itself that it is not actually a special military operation. Then, the participation of a third country in the war in Ukraine can bring about a change in the nature of the Russian war, and then NATO and other like-minded countries can bring a turning point of the nature of the response based on the norms of the international order.

And in the case of North Korea, military supplies, weapons, and dispatch of troops now are all in violation of the UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea. But the problem is that North Korea is now a member of the United Nations. When these things are put together, it can be seen that North Korea's position and role in confusing the international order can lead to enormous criticism from the international community and another higher level of sanctions.

[Anchor]
Let's look at the impact of sending troops again in a little while. They say they sent special forces this time. How can we see North Korea's special forces' operational capabilities and compare them with Russia? So there is a saying that it will be difficult to participate in earnest, but there is also a view that it will be directly at the forefront of the war.


North Korea's Special Operations Force Since 2017, North Korea has integrated its special operations forces in each military. About 200,000 people are talking. If you look at it, there are various types such as the Light Infantry Brigade, the Sniper Brigade, or the Air Land Forces, which are airlift units in Korea, and some of them seem to have gone now, but in Russia, it is very difficult to draft. And I'm not going to go. And more than a thousand people are dying every day, so who would apply for it?

So the fact that Russia is going to sign a military alliance treaty with a country that is not going to war this June is something that has opened up the possibility of a de facto dispatch of troops. And you can say that North Korea has given it enough thought and signed a new treaty with Russia. That's why we'll take that logic that North Korea should send it, of course, based on the treaty.

[Anchor]
You said North Korea-Russia relations are close together, but if this happens, will it go to blood alliance? How do I look at it?


If we send troops and fight together on the battlefield, we will eventually emphasize that North Korea is a blood ally. Isn't it to get something that North Korea is sending troops and providing large-scale support for military supplies and weapons like this? Therefore, the international community, including us, is most concerned about North Korea's attempt to transfer key high-tech technologies that have been blocked from Russia.

[Anchor]
There's something we're exchanging with each other.


If so, the possibility of providing such high-tech technologies to North Korea, such as re-entry, multi-warhead functions, nuclear submarine, and other core technologies related to space, may gradually increase. And it can be seen that there is a growing concern as a factor that has ripple effects and instability on the international community as well as the region.

[Anchor]
Then, in the current situation, there is no way to stop North Korea from getting so close to Russia at a time when North Korea's sanctions against North Korea have become almost useless, so what do you think of that?


In the end, there could be this skepticism. The fact that Russia eventually held the hands of North Korea, not other countries, is that Russia's national power and ability to carry out wars are very limited, and its capabilities are very poor.

[Anchor]
Is Russia that urgent?


[Lee Ho-ryeong]
This proves that you are in a hurry. And what happens to the Korean Peninsula when North Korea is helping Russia and providing a large amount of military power, supplies, and manpower? As North Korea is escalating its crisis on the Korean Peninsula, the question remains as to how much capacity North Korea is prepared to handle. So in the end, isn't it a very exhausting war for the two Russia and North Korea to respond like this?

North Korea's support eventually disappeared into a war of attrition and did not play a role in bringing Russia's overwhelming victory in a practical way, so the longer the current situation continues, the more likely Russia and North Korea are to fall underdogs together.

[Anchor]
Anyway, North Korea sends troops to Russia? How does China see this situation?


From China's point of view, the counting method will be very complicated. I think there are advantages and disadvantages. As for the advantage, I thought China had an overwhelming advantage in the region that could have an influence on the Korean Peninsula, but by showing close ties to Russia to provide military support or dispatch troops, you might think that China has weakened its influence on North Korea relatively, but in a way, this could be an opportunity.

If Russia and North Korea end up exhausted in this situation, and Russia cannot give North Korea what it wanted and provide support in economic matters. And now, if you look at it now, we depend a lot on China for material support and the economy from China rather than Russia.

Then comes another opportunity for China to speak out. And in this situation, China is the only country that can control North Korea's behavior with the international community, and China's diplomatic position has increased relatively.

[Anchor]
North Korea has recently decided to dispatch troops and is strengthening inter-Korean ties, and the North additionally claims that it has flown drones from the South, saying, "Do you have any evidence?" and I put out the photo, saying it was real evidence. How credible is it?


If you look at North Korea's statement and actual contents regarding drones, I think there are a lot of inconsistencies and disproving how embarrassed and disorganized North Korea is internally. Looking at it, I saw a North Korean drone flying over Pyongyang and over the Labor Office.

They said that it was on October 3, 9th, and 10th, and then on the 13th, they started to take measures to find that drone. And they found it on the 14th. And today is the 19th. I showed you that picture on the 19th. There's a lot of gap between the two. If you look at the contents of today's statement that was released, there is something that can be used for about five to seven days if you look at the oil that can be used.

Then, if we calculate it again, it takes about 5 to 8 days to arrive in North Korea, not 3, 9, 10 days, that it flew in the air. The numbers of these things are not right either. So why is North Korea continuing to make an issue with this drone, and in the case of the dispatch of troops and the bombing of the Korean Central News Agency, the Gyeongui Line, and the East Sea Line, the Rodong Sinmun does not carry it at all. However, loading and carrying drones like that in relation to unmanned aerial vehicles has a much greater internal purpose.

[Anchor]
There are some parts that don't fit the timing. He explains that there are a lot of doubtful parts, but I'll see if North Korea will refute this part as well. This has been Dr. Lee Ho-ryeong. Thank you.