[New Square 10] U.S. presidential election D-11, poll 'super close'...Who's the final winner?

■ Host: Park Seok-won Anchor
■ Video broadcast: Min Jeong-hoon, professor of the American Research Department at the National Diplomatic Institute,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.



[Anchor]
With the U.S. presidential election just over 10 days away, national polls show Trump ahead of Harris. However, in Gyeongsang Province, Harris is a little ahead, so it is an "ultra-tight" situation where it is difficult to predict victory or defeat. Let's talk about the U.S. presidential election and details with Min Jeong-hoon, a professor of the American Research Department at the National Diplomatic Institute. You're out, right?

[Minjeonghun]
Hello,

[Anchor]
How are you? First of all, if you look at the national polls, candidate Trump seems to be a little ahead, how do you see the current polls?

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. Reports in the media today show that former President Trump is about 2% ahead of Harris on a national level. However, yesterday's poll shows that Harris is still 2 to 3 percent ahead, so I can tell you that it's really close, it's a toss-up, and in competing states, former President Trump is 2 percent ahead in today's polls, and Harris is 2 to 3 percent ahead in four of the major contending states, so if you look at the current situation, which candidate is ahead. Of course, as former President Trump's supporters gather, the poll's approval rating for former President Trump is gradually increasing.Nevertheless, Ma is still in the fog, I can tell you this.

[Anchor]
Among the various variables in the fog, isn't this part of the attention being paid to how Shy Trump's movement will be? What do you think?

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. When asked why former President Trump's approval rating has risen recently, I'm thinking about two things. First, former President Trump's supporters are solidifying their gathering. Because the presidential election is just around the corner, Republican supporters are rallying much stronger than Democrats, and they have decided to vote faster than Democratic supporters even though there is not much time left to support former President Trump, while black and Latino voters seem to lack more determination for Harris than Republicans.
So it's kind of being pushed out. And the second is the votes of undecided voters. If this swing vote is the main factor in Trump's rise, this could be a devastating shock to Harris. If we take five polls as an example, we should wait and see because Harris is 3 to 4% ahead of former President Trump. That's why I think the rally of former President Trump's supporters is stronger and faster than the rally of Democratic supporters, so I think that former President Trump is currently on the rise in this area.

[Anchor]
After all, isn't the U.S. presidential election a competitive battle? How is the situation in 7 Gyeongsang provinces now?


[Minjeonghun]
As I said, it's very close. But to break it down a little bit, when we have Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt in the Midwest, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada in the South and West, Harris is strong, and that part has recently fallen into the fog. And yet again, the Rust Belt shows Harris making strides again. Isn't the
sun belt almost certain that former President Trump will prevail? So in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, former President Trump is leading, and in Nevada, he's very up and down, so I personally think he's going to pay more attention to Harris, so I think the Rust Belt is divided into Harris, and the Sun Belt is Trump.

[Anchor]
Professor, you mentioned black votes earlier, but I thought Harris would overwhelmingly win black votes after she was confirmed as a candidate, but there is a scene where black male votes are heading toward Trump. How should I interpret this?

[Minjeonghun]
I don't think the verification of Harris has been completely completed for black voters. In the case of black women, Harris' characteristics seem to be more intimate in that she is a female non-white candidate, but those parts seem not to be convincing to black men yet. However, since black votes are traditionally very strong and loyal to the Democratic Party, we expect that black votes will gradually return to the Democratic Party as the voting day approaches.

[Anchor]
With 10 days left in the U.S. presidential election, there are areas where we continue to pay attention to the U.S. presidential election. In particular, the U.S. presidential election is unfamiliar because the election is held in a different way from Korea, so could you explain how it goes?

[Minjeonghun]
The election system is different from ours, so there is a bit of confusion. In the case of Korea, the winner is determined by compiling the results of the voter vote nationwide based only on the results of the voter vote when holding the presidential election. In the case of the U.S. presidential election, we hold a primary and we're talking about the final and the final, so we hold a voter vote when we hold the final. Instead of compiling these voter turnout results nationwide, each state has adopted a winner-take-all system that gives all the electors distributed to that state to the voter-voting winner. Therefore, each state has a system that determines the winner of the electors and allows the candidate who wins 270 votes, which is the majority of the electors nationwide, to become the president, so it has the characteristics of indirect elections. Therefore, who wins mainly in competing states rather than the results of the national voter vote. That's why the campaign is focused on seven competing states because the focus is on who will effectively match the 270 electors.

[Anchor]
Even with a small number of variables in mind, the situation changes so much that we need to pay attention to this, but as a result, experts' predictions of the winner are also mixed.

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. I think many experts make predictions by turning predictive models. Because it's so close, and because the results of the polls are changing, there are also changes in the winner's prediction. And because it's very up and down, it's divided by scholars who predict it. So it's almost 50-50 divided, so it's hard to predict who can win with just the predictive model. That's why this story is showing that this presidential election is never strange no matter which of the two candidates wins.

[Anchor]
However, on the other hand, since it is so close that it is difficult for anyone to accept it easily, there are voices of concern that violence will occur after the election. What do you think?

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. I'm a bit cautious about whether violence will really happen.Ma is very likely to disagree with the results of the presidential election anyway. If former President Trump loses, he is very concerned because the Republican Party is legally suing and as you said, supporters can riot. The Democratic Party is not free in this situation either. Since there is a possibility that the Democratic Party of Korea will legally discuss that part when it loses due to an extremely close defeat, the biggest scenario is likely to result in a court battle because if anyone wins, it can be difficult for one side to accept the election result smoothly. I think that the results of this presidential election can be determined by the Supreme Court's decision like the results of the 2000 U.S. presidential election.

[Anchor]
As the campaign moves toward the second half of the year, the battle for allies is getting fiercer, and Beyoncé is going to be with Harris on the campaign trail. Do you think this friendly fight will be a variable?

[Minjeonghun]
I think it will help to rally the support base. Of course, it is not easy to find research results on how directly this affects voters' votes because these celebrities and celebrities are supporting campaigns. So I can't tell you definitely.If celebrities and celebrities well known to the American public, such as Beyoncé and Stevie Wonder, go and support a specific candidate, the image of the candidate will improve, and fans who can't decide their votes can positively play a role in determining their votes. I think it's meaningful in that regard, but on the other hand, the full mobilization of these cell methods can give the perception that Harris and Trump candidates are now very close and losing ground, so the full support of such celebrities does not have a 100% positive effect. There's also this perspective.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. So far, I have been with Min Jeong-hoon, a professor of American Studies at the National Diplomatic Institute. Thank you.