"My gut feeling"... What are the two U.S. presidential election tweezers, Harris vs. Trump predictions?

ⓒYonhap News Agency

With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, more competition is expected as the predictions of presidential election tweezers are mixed.

First, Nate Silver, a political statistics expert, predicted that Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate and former president, and Alan Rickman, a chair professor at American University, would win Democratic presidential candidate and vice president Kamala Harris.

"If you ask who will be advantageous in this presidential election, I will answer former President Trump," Silver said in a New York Times article. A statistician from the University of Chicago, he rose to stardom by matching the results of both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.

Silver made the remarks if close games are expected in all seven competing states that will determine the presidential winner: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.

"The poll may not reflect the approval rating for former President Trump properly due to the voter's 'non-response bias'," he said, adding that former Trump presidential candidate Daetongryeong won higher votes than polls in both 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

Harris, who is of mixed Indian and Jamaican descent, also noted that she could face the so-called "Bradley effect," which means that non-white candidates' actual votes are lower than polls.

On the other hand, Professor Liktman predicted in an interview on the cable broadcast "News Nation" that "Considering the economic situation, Harris will win."

Professor Liktman, who has predicted Harris' victory since July, also strengthened his prediction by diagnosing that "there will be no recession in the U.S. this year, and the per capita wage growth rate of the Joe Biden administration is also above the average of the past regime."

Professor Liktman has predicted the results of the presidential election through the "13 Key to the Presidential Election" model, a framework developed by historically analyzing the trends of the U.S. presidential election since 1860.

After predicting the re-election of President Ronald Reagan in the 1984 presidential election, he correctly won most of the election, including George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and former Presidents Trump and Biden. The only time the prediction was wrong was in the 2000 presidential election, when George W. Bush and Al Gore faced off and there was a recount controversy.

Reporter Lee Yu Na from Digital News Team.