"North Korean troops are about to go into action"...Government shares intelligence with NATO

■ Host: Anchor Yoon Bori, anchor Na Kyung-chul
■ Starring: Kim Kwang-seok, adjunct professor at Hanyang University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Foreign media reports that the North Korean military has gathered in battlegrounds in mainland Russia suggest that the actual deployment is imminent.

[Anchor]
Our government has also started preparing for a full-fledged response with the international community. Let's take a look at the contents related to Cho Han-beom, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Please come in.

[Anchor]
There is news that the North Korean military has gathered in Kursk, Russia. I think it's going to be a real deployment, what role will it be?

[Cho Han-beom]
It's still uncertain. This is because at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers have been dispatched to the Far East and are being trained. So far, the United States, our side, and Ukraine are shared. But now there are troops on the front lines, there are dead, there are prisoners. These are all from Ukraine.

So what the North Korean military will do so far... All circumstances suggest that the North has been dispatched and there is a possibility of combat, but the mission must be completed. Because even if there are 12,000 people, it will be consumed if they are put into the front line.

Then, during the Vietnam War, we sent 320,000 troops a year from 64 to 73. Among them, 5,000 were killed and 11,000 were injured. But it was a guerrilla war. But this is an all-out war on flat land. It's a large-scale war of attrition. 700,000 Russian casualties in two and a half years. Usually, the number of dead and injured is 2:1.

Then, there are 1 million people in total in Ukraine, but even if there are 12,000 people, they will be consumed quickly if they go to such an all-out war. Then, North Korea must constantly replenish its troops. So, the situation is likely to be combat, but it is not yet known whether those personnel will participate in the battle or support the rear. In fact, you have to open up all possibilities, so you can see it like this.

[Anchor]
If North Korea really participates in the battle, the United States is concerned that if that happens, North Korea will also become a joint war of war. In other words, Russia is in a very difficult situation right now that it is supported by the North Korean military from Russia's point of view, which is an urgent situation. Can it be interpreted like this?

[Cho Han-beom]
Of course. Because Ukraine seems to be losing ground, but Ukraine can always turn the tide. Because even if the range of weapons supported by the West and NATO is extended right now, there is a condition that there are long-range missiles now, but only in Ukrainian territory.

You can only use it to invade Ukraine and then Russia, for example, Kursk, and then you can't use it to attack and capture Ukraine. And in the case of Stormshedo and Atex, the range is 300 to 500km. But from the west, weapons are flying to attack Ukraine. Even if weapons are allowed only up to Russian territory, Russian rear bases will be devastated.

Ukraine can turn the tide depending on Western support. But Russia is isolated now. Except for North Korea, China does not give weapons and Iran does not have the capacity to mass-produce. On the surface, Russia controls the battlefield, but it can always turn the situation around and shows serious limitations, especially in military resources.

I did the 1st draft and said there was no more, but if you do the 2nd draft, there will be internal cracks, and there will be backlash. He keeps hiring at the mercenary level. It's the first time I've been dispatched on a national basis. And there are 12,000 in the media, but the combat troops don't end here. If it continues to be consumed, North Korea will constantly receive troops, so Russia has met a welcome rain of drought.

Because it's so desperate, it's actually a lifeline for Russia, but the side effects of it are beyond imagination. You can lift the arms range limit that NATO and the United States mentioned. However, NATO also has to think about supporting troops, and we also have to pay attention to the support of weapons of death right away.

However, one of the things Russia fears most is that Korea provides weapons of destruction to Ukraine. The quality of our support for lethal weapons and North Korea's support for ammunition to Russia are different. However, taking that risk and accepting the dispatch means that Russia is so desperate, and the battlefield is dominant, but it is unclear how long it will be dragged.

[Anchor]
From Russia's point of view, it is a welcome rain of drought, but from our perspective, it is too much for North Koreans. What are you trying to get by putting your people on the battlefield like this?

[Cho Han-beom]
First of all, the Kim Jong-un regime is also an adventure. Simply put, the reason why I say I joined hands with the devil is that some say foreign currency, dollar mercenaries. But if you judge like that, you are ignoring the Kim Jong-un regime too much. There are a lot more strategic initiatives. For example, when we dispatch troops to the Vietnam War, there is a security vacuum.

So I asked the United States to rent a battalion of F-4 Phantom Squadron for free in '69. It's a state-of-the-art plane at that time. It's like an F-21 Raptor right now. That's why we've had the strongest air power in Northeast Asia for a few years, surpassing Japan, the Middle East, and the Soviet Union.
So in the case of North Korea, you're sending so many troops, so you're just going to make some foreign currency? I don't think so.

Obviously, North Korea's high-tech air power is in desperate need of a security attack from Russia. SU-27 to 35 series. They say they're eyeing this, but they can't eat nuclear-powered submarines with North Korean technology. What's more concerning? It is to modernize the conventional power of the North Korean People's Army.

Whether it's improving the performance of advanced fighter jets, tanks, armored vehicles, and field guns, or improving KN-23 and 29 precision, this is a bigger threat to us. In addition, combat experience, and North Korea has no experience in modern warfare. We haven't had one since the Vietnam War. Since the modern war is completely different now, when the People's Army who have experienced that battle returns, the improvement of the People's Army's power will be enormous.

After the Vietnam War, the Korean military's combat power improved significantly. Another thing is that Russia is also obligated to participate in the war if North Korea is in a state of conflict because it has dispatched soldiers. So for the Kim Jong-un regime, there are many multipurpose cards. You don't just make that judgment on dollars.

[Anchor]
Therefore, it can be a great opportunity to improve military power.

[Cho Han-beom]
It's a significant risk to us. Some people think we're being dragged in for no reason. You can't be dragged in. However, there is an inevitable fuel. So this is a considerable concern for us.

[Anchor]
However, as North Korea dispatched troops this time, President Putin's cause is the North Korea-Russia Treaty, which was ratified by the Russian House of Representatives. So if one side goes to war, they will support it without delay. But is there no way the international community can stop this?

[Cho Han-beom]
First of all, Putin started a war without justification. But there is no right to prevent war, even illegal war. However, Putin has been charged with war crimes. Like killing civilians. He was charged as a war criminal. Then the UN Security Council should impose sanctions now, but the UN Security Council is unanimously agreed by the permanent members. The U.S., China, Russia, the U.K., France. You can't sanction just one opposition.

But Russia is themselves. The Security Council is in a vegetative state. It is the Western camp that is sanctioning now, because it is the United States, NATO, and Europe. And I've done almost everything to sanction. And even Russia at that level made an extreme choice. Russia also joined hands with the devil.

If you make that choice, it's a situation that doesn't matter. So I'm going to impose sanctions or pressure, but I'm not going to change my choice.

[Anchor]
On the other hand, documents were released on social media in case the Ukrainian military met the North Korean military. There are Korean meanings and Ukrainian words, and among them, throw away your weapons, what's your mission? Are you hungry? There's this expression. I think it's to induce surrender.

[Cho Han-beom]
It's because it's said that North Korean special forces have gone, but it's not the Navy SEAL we think of. How would legions become special forces? That unit has 40,000 to 80,000 storm troops, and the mission is that North Korea's corps has up to 12 troops. There's no 6th Army. Then, the 4, 2, 5, and 1st Corps are in front of us.

This means that the Storm Corps and the 11th Corps are in the back and light in case of emergency. It's just a simple armament, bypassing through the mountain march and penetrating backward. And the Sniper Brigade is still . . . a specialized unit of war with us and never once had the concept of war with a foreign army. But Russia is not even a blood ally.

All of a sudden, the leadership is good for a year or two. North Koreans don't like Russians. Russians don't treat North Koreans very much. In the meantime, would there be fraud if I suddenly told them to fight Ukraine in a strange land, not in Korea? And because it's a war of attrition over there, there are large-scale deaths.

Then the North Korean military has no intention of fighting. If you're a mercenary, you'll get a salary, but the North Korean authorities can't reduce your salary. They're going to take almost everything. Then, there is a high possibility of a large number of defectors. So there are a lot of Koryoin people in Ukraine. I'm going to do a surrender manual with their help. In my view, when you go into battle, the Storm Corps is not a strong unit.

So, it seems that the horse is a special forces unit, so it seems that it will have combat power, but if there is a large-scale death, there is a high possibility of a large-scale departure. So the Ukrainian authorities are preparing for that.

[Anchor]
Then, do you expect that the prepared surrender power will work?

[Cho Han-beom]
It's going to work pretty well.

[Anchor]
Then, if a surrender comes out, can it be something like moving from there to Ukraine and possibly defecting to our country?

[Cho Han-beom]
We're forced to get involved because some people say we shouldn't because we're involved, but we got involved whether we wanted it or not. Because North Koreans are our people under the Constitution of the Republic of Korea, even if they are the People's Army. Then, if you surrender and stay there, we have to bring you. It's our people, actually. If you surrender and go, you become our people from that point on.

So we need our communication system to be up and running right away, in many ways. You have information about the People's Army and you have to get information about the People's Army activities. But as I've told everyone, I don't know what dimension it is yet. It's information I got from the North Korean side yesterday, it's intelligence, not yet. The news of the dispatch of troops is coming out.

However, it is not a storm troop, but an engineering bureau under the 7th General Bureau. What this means is that the engineering force and the military construction force are called the engineering force. These friends are mostly sent abroad. It's because they're dispatched and built. It was built by 50,000 people during the Sochi Olympics in Russia.

And even before the war, the Seven Corps of Engineers went to St. Petersburg. So, there are rumors that these people went. However, we also need to check whether the information was leaked by the North Korean authorities on purpose to deceive the dispatch of combat troops or whether the 7th General Bureau of Engineering actually went. However, first of all, I heard rumors that the dispatch of troops to North Korea was known and that the 7th General Bureau went.

Therefore, it remains to be seen whether there is still a possibility of prisoners of war and deaths at the front line or not. And another thing is that North Korea's storm troopers mainly trained in mountainous areas. But Ukraine is a plain, a plain. If that happens, those people will be light-armed, and there will be no heavy weapons.

And the language is different and the organization is different. The first Iljin said he went on October 8th. Then, as President Zelensky said, by the end of October, they will be trained for two or three weeks and put on the front line. It doesn't make sense.

[Anchor]
It's physically too short a time.

[Cho Han-beom]
When foreign troops can't communicate, 10,000 troops from India, Pakistan, Brazil, Uganda, and Europe arrive at the airport, train for two to three weeks, and are sent to the front to fight right away? I can't explain it logically. So if that happens, there's really a problem right before the Russian front collapses. If not, there's a lot of work to do in the back.

We'll wipe out Ukrainian guerrillas, pro-Ukrainian militias, or engineers. That's why we need to open up various possibilities, including the possibility of sending combat troops and putting them all into combat. As I said, if you participate as a combat soldier, this is an endless war of attrition, and supplementary forces will continue to go from North Korea.

And if it's prolonged, I have to change my shift because of fatigue. Then, if tens of thousands of people and more than tens of thousands of people experience foreign countries and enter North Korea, this could be a variable in the change of the regime. In addition, North Korea will also have one child, so there will be a considerable number of deaths. Would parents stay still? no matter how closed it is I'm going to put everything on my child.

So, if you really send combat troops and participate in the battle, the Kim Jong Un regime will gain a lot, but in my view, it's the biggest handshake. And the Putin regime will also have a lot more to lose than to gain. In the case of the Korea-U.S. alliance, we have operated for decades, so it is possible to operate almost in one piece. The language is different, there is no intimacy, and I don't know if the information being released is true, but the language of the hostile Russians is coming out. More information is needed to understand the situation more accurately.

[Anchor]
Let's stop here. So far, I've been with Cho Han-beom, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Thank you for talking today.