October 16 by-elections D-3...What is the outlook for the second week of the National Assembly inspection?

■ Host: Chang Won-seok Anchor
■ Starring: Lee Jong-geun, current affairs critic, Bae Jong-ho, professor of Seha University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The 10.16 by-elections to select the heads of four local governments and the superintendent of education of Seoul are just three days away. Representatives Han Dong-hoon and Lee Jae-myung are visiting battlegrounds every day to appeal for support. We will take a look at political issues such as the situation of the by-elections three days away and the news of the parliamentary inspection entering the second week with Chung-geun, a current affairs critic, and Bae Jong-ho, a professor of Seha University. Welcome, two of you. The by-elections are just three days away. Looking at the results of the early voting, it was a little less than 9%. Of course, it's a bit ambiguous to compare with the general election.In the Ma general election, the early voting rate was a little over 31%, so how do you rate this figure?

[Bae Jong Ho]
First of all, if you look at it overall, it's a very low early voting rate, so it can be summarized like this. First of all, it can cause an optical illusion. The reason is that it is 8.98 overall, but if you look at each district separately, it is completely different. The reason why 8.98 came out overall this time is that the by-election of the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education was 8.2, so the average was 8.98. First of all, in Yeonggwang, Jeollanam-do, which is the hottest, it is 43% and paradoxically, it is the highest ever in early voting. And in the case of Gokseong, 41%. As expected, it's the best. On the other hand, although it is relatively low in other regions, it is 23% in Ganghwa, Incheon, and 20% in Geumjeong, Busan. Other areas are not so low. Rather, it's an all-time high. You can see it like this. First of all, in the case of Yeonggwang Gokseong in Jeollanam-do, why it has such a high early voting rate of more than 40%, the three opposition parties, the Democratic Party, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, and the Progressive Party, are pouring out all their energy. In the case of my country, I got a monthly rent here and I'm practically living here. In the case of the Progressive Party, all organizations across the country are engaged in volunteer activities and campaigning, so it is analyzed that they are recording such a high pre-voting rate. In the case of Geumjeong in Busan, the result of winning and losing is a region of keen interest, but this region is relatively low by about 20%. Then why is it relatively low? Generally speaking, this area is a traditionally conservative garden, but conservative supporters are showing an alienation in relation to President Yoon Suk Yeol's misrule and Kim Geon-hee's ongoing suspicions. Wouldn't it be a relatively low early turnout to express disappointment? As a result, the Democratic Party and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party succeeded in unifying the candidates here, right? As a result, there are voices from the ruling party who are worried that such a low early voting rate will lead to a disadvantageous result for the people's power, but we should open the lid.

[Anchor]
I see. The critic said that 8.98% of the vote is early and there is some optical illusion. What did you think?

[Lee Jong-geun]
The overall stance agrees with the professor. Because the early voting rate is the highest in the presidential election, followed by the general election, and the by-elections are the lowest. However, the by-elections, especially those related to the heads of local governments, have never reached the 20% range, but for the first time in the last election of Gangseo-gu District Office, it reached a really high of 22.64%. The reason is that the head of the local government rarely went to central politics in the by-elections before. The party leader went and held a campaign rally, and this was actually a rare phenomenon. It was an implicit trend that each party should do it with current issues in the region. However, the election for Gangseo-gu Mayor last time grew like a regime trial theory. As a result, the early voting rate has increased, and it's the same here now. This other flow chart. However, I think that the different point from the professor is the interpretation of the pre-voting rate for each region, for example, Geumjeong-gu, Busan, is now in the 20% range. Twenty percent of Geumjeong-gu, Busan, is less than half as big as other regions, such as the glory and wailing of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party or the Democratic Party. But this area is actually putting more effort into it than other areas. Representative Cho Kuk and representative Lee Jae-myung are so eager to join hands and hold a campaign together, and furthermore, they have unified their candidates. Then, the wind should blow that much, but the low early voting rate means that the wind does not blow, and conversely, the organizational vote is much more advantageous. If so, I think there is room for the people's power to be interpreted as a more advantageous terrain.

[Anchor]
Party leaders are emphasizing this part of the campaign in Geumjeong-gu, Busan, but representatives Han Dong-hoon and Lee Jae-myung emphasized a little different parts. Let's hear what it's about.

[Han Dong-hoon / Representative of People's Power: I think it is necessary to renovate the presidential office. That is the important starting point for the government and the ruling party to reform, change, and reform according to public sentiment.... ]

[Lee Jae-myung / Democratic Party leader: If you still don't know why you were judged in the general election, you must take this opportunity to make a second judgment. Please show me the national yellow card and the second yellow card. ]

[Anchor]
Representative Han Dong-hoon mentioned the need for personnel reform of the presidential office, but did you judge that this is advantageous to distance yourself from the presidential office?

[Lee Jong-geun]
I think it will be a learning effect for the last general election. In the last general election, Han Dong-hoon, chairman of the emergency committee, led the general election and confronted the regime's judgment with the theory of judgment. However, as a result, it was a crushing defeat in the general election. Then, rather than making a judgment, Han Dong-hoon should not repeat the criticism that the appointment of Lee Jong-seop as the Australian ambassador or President Yoon Suk Yeol's medical reform press conference, but that the content of the press conference itself was virtually insufficient. If so, isn't one of the biggest reasons for the public sentiment, that is, the president's positive performance rating, or the party's approval rating, the accumulated problems in the presidential office? If so, with regard to the issue related to First Lady Kim Gun-hee, he seems to be raising his voice on the issue of First Lady Kim Gun-hee at every campaign site, thinking that he should not repeat the mistakes of the last general election.

[Anchor]
As you said, the public should also come up with convincing results on the alleged manipulation of Deutsche Motors' stock price. In fact, it seems that the prosecution is suggesting that the prosecution should present an opinion of prosecution. Do you think this has an advantage?

[Bae Jong Ho]
I also think that the anchor's interpretation is accurate. What is important is that now CEO Han Dong-hoon's message continues to rise. The first thing I asked for was an apology from Mrs. Kim Gun-hee, and the second thing that came out was Mrs. Kim Gun-hee's restraint from public action. And the third one was Kim Gun-hee, the anchor just mentioned, talking about judicial action in relation to the alleged manipulation of Deutsche Motors' stock price, and the fourth one was the presidential office's personnel reform. However, it was Kim Gun-hee who eventually aimed at personnel reform in the presidential office. What does that mean? There are about seven people related to Mrs. Kim Gun-hee. Therefore, it is the requirement of representative Han Dong-hoon or his close side to organize the seven secretaries and administrators of the planning part, but the reason why representative Han Dong-hoon's level has risen step by step is that there are three steps in my opinion. First, I'll draw a line for sure. I will differentiate myself from the president of Yoon Suk Yeol. Among them, the issue of First Lady Kim Gun-hee seems to have judged that there is no future for the ruling party, no re-creation of the regime, and no future for her own Han Dong-hoon. And secondly, the results of the by-elections, which are only three days away, are very important. Especially in the case of Busan Geumjeong, if you lose, you'll be in big trouble. Since his leadership command itself can be shaken, it seems that he will win the hearts of conservative supporters who are shaking through these clear differentiation line-drawing remarks. Third, if you lose as a result of the by-elections here, there is a very high possibility that the pro-yoon side will come up with Han Dong-hoon's representative responsibility. Then, I personally believe that the defeat of the by-elections is not due to the responsibility of Han Dong-hoon or his close friends, but rather to the situation, incompetence, and problems of President Yoon Suk Yeol.

[Anchor]
As representative Han Dong-hoon's remarks are getting stronger, the level of criticism in the pro-yoon world is getting higher. What is your interpretation of the factional conflict in earnest after the by-election?

[Lee Jong-geun]
First of all, Chin Yun-gye is raising his voice, but he doesn't cross the line, I see. The reason for crossing that line is the result of the by-election, and as you said earlier, I think we are looking at the result of the by-election. So if you lose the head of a local government that you thought was an existing garden, including Geumjeong-gu or Ganghwa-gun, you will shake the representative system by saying, "Look at that." This has always happened. After the convention, the biggest question of whether the representative's term will be preserved or shaken is whether the shaking continues depending on the outcome of the first by-election. There are two more things here. a question of approval ratings Currently, the approval rating sometimes decreases with the party leader's approval rating and then the party's approval rating and the president's approval rating, but at some point, there is a slight decoupling. However, after the by-election, the parliamentary audit has just been conducted, and the rumor of a crisis in November has been included, so what is the difference in approval ratings? Even if the president's approval rating falls, if decoupling, or the party's approval rating stagnates, or if the party's approval rating rises upside down, then pro-Yoon probably won't speak out more, but if the approval rating continues to fall even after the by-election, pro-Yoon is likely to rise with almost nothing.

[Anchor]
Kim Gun-hee, who has emerged as the core of the current conflict among factions of people's power, is suspected of manipulating Deutsche Motors' stock price. The prosecution is expected to announce the results of the investigation this week. The Minister of Justice's remarks came out during the parliamentary inspection, but he made remarks that put weight on non-prosecution. We'll be back after hearing this.

[Park Sung-jae / Minister of Justice (last 8th): If this evidence alone is sufficient to prosecute, why couldn't it be processed (before)? I'm sure there's a reason for that, but wouldn't the people who are investigating now be thinking the same thing.... ]

[Anchor]
The Minister of Justice made such remarks that the prosecution is likely to be prosecuted, but now there are suggestive remarks within the ruling camp that seem to be talking about prosecution and public opinion must be considered, so what do you think?

[Bae Jong Ho]
Looking at the prosecution's actions so far, I think it is very likely that Kim Gun-hee will be acquitted of charges in connection with the alleged manipulation of Deutsche Motors' stock price. The reason for this is because, first of all, the prosecution has already concluded that they will not be indicted in connection with the luxury white goods case, right? Regarding that, first of all, the spouse cannot be punished. Also, there is no relevance or quid pro quo of the president's duties. And the prosecution's position is that it is simply an expression of gratitude. But what happened during the investigation? He did a business trip investigation and rather returned his cell phone to the suspect. So, the prosecutor general rather apologizes to the public, but the result was that he was not indicted. However, there are already reports that the prosecution will not be prosecuted if you look at the media regarding the alleged manipulation of Deutsche Motors' stock price. What does this mean, in the end, isn't it the result of the prosecution's media play? I personally think that. So in the end, it is expected that they will be acquitted without charge, but the problem is the public's perspective. According to a poll about Kim Gun-hee, about 65% of the respondents should conduct an independent counsel now. However, the prosecution will not be charged with any charges in connection with the alleged manipulation of Deutsche Motors' stock price following the luxury white goods case. But in the second trial, Son was convicted of aiding and abetting. If so, whether the Korean people will say that the prosecution's investigation is fair, it is expected that the public's distrust and criticism will grow, which could put the entire prosecution organization in crisis. In particular, the Democratic Party and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party continue to demand the dismantling of the prosecution, but it is expected to raise their voices even more.

[Anchor]
CEO Han Dong-hoon is also raising the level of his remarks regarding Kim Gun-hee, but I don't know how many weeks he has been talking about a private meeting here. Can we meet this time?

[Lee Jong-geun]
I know. But this is what I think. If you're desperate, you'll meet. Desperation means that when there is a risk that the approval rating is really out of the critical point without political momentum, something must be done then. Now, even if it's actually just before that, it seems highly likely to me to have a private meeting. Because there is no such mechanism to rebound or reverse the approval rating. And the presidential office still says that approval ratings will only decline in the process of continuing to complete reform, but I think that's a false diagnosis. The important thing is this. There are two things about the president having a private meeting. One has to come up with an answer. In other words, it's not important for CEO Han Dong-hoon to meet, but CEO Han Dong-hoon has already asked questions or talked about solutions during the campaign. Then what meeting means is that I will come up with an answer to that. That's why the answer has to come out already. The second reason why it's meaningful to meet is because so far, the president has met politicians, especially the ruling party, and he has only met people who say what he wants to hear. But now it's time to show that the president meets even those who say things they don't want to hear. So, meeting CEO Han Dong-hoon can give the image that he's trying to communicate a little bit now, so I think the solo meeting will probably happen for those two reasons.

[Bae Jong Ho]
I think I should convey a different perspective to the viewers. I think that the possibility of failure is much higher than the possibility of a solo meeting. There are two reasons for that. One is the message that CEO Han Dong-hoon is asking for and the second is the question of timing. As I said earlier, representative Han Dong-hoon is putting up conditions that President Yoon Suk Yeol cannot accept. Specifically, Kim Gun-hee's judicial process and the presidential office's personnel reform. However, Yoon Suk Yeol's position is clear that it is impossible to punish Kim Gun-hee alone. However, CEO Han Dong-hoon continues to demand this, but if they meet, they can't hear the agenda, so I have a question of whether they will meet. Secondly, when I asked for a private meeting last time, I refused twice, and if I want to meet you, I can meet you immediately. I asked you to meet me after the 10.16 by-elections. In other words, as I said earlier, if the ruling party suffers a crushing defeat after the October 16 by-elections, there is a possibility that the pro-yoon faction will call for Han Dong-hoon to step down as representative. Then, in a situation where pro-Yoon-gye and his close circle face off again, then President Yoon Suk Yeol and Representative Han Dong-hoon cannot meet. So, I think the results of the 10.16 by-elections will be the criteria for deciding whether or not to hold a solo meeting.

[Anchor]
Now let's look at the by-elections. They evaluated it comprehensively.Ma is considered a very fierce battleground for the election of the head of Busan Geumjeong-gu, how is the situation going now?

[Lee Jong-geun]
First of all, it's very close. So I think it's slightly different for each poll and for each institution. However, in general, it is not possible to say that anyone is completely superior, but in the end, this is it. This area itself was taken by the Democratic Party only once in the election for the head of Geumjeong-gu. And then it's a place that's never been taken in a parliamentary election, from the perspective of the Democratic Party. Moreover, in the previous election, the people's power won by a 52% to 47% margin in the general election, so we have united candidates together, but it is still not enough in that regard to whether they are campaigning enough to cause a wind. If this is to be completely reversed, the early voting rate should have been as high as the glorious wailing, but the desire of Busan Geumjeong is not so great as expected. Of course, there are answers in the polls, but if you look for the active voters in them, you can see a gap between the active voters and the entire poll. It seems that the Democratic Party will probably be thinking about how to overcome that point.

[Anchor]
And Yeonggwang, Jeollanam-do, which is analyzed as a fight within the opposition party, has an early voter turnout of 43.06%. It's 41.44 percent of the time. The opposition party is fighting fiercely right now, but the progressive party is doing well unexpectedly. How are you analyzing the situation?

[Bae Jong Ho]
This place really needs to open the lid. At first, the two-way structure of the Democratic Party and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party was changed, but the Democratic Party and the Progressive Party candidates went to the two-way structure as they went toward the end. So, since the three parties are in a close race within the margin of an ultra-close error, I can tell you that you have to open the lid to know. I think what is more important here than winning or losing is the high political consciousness and political level of the voters of this region. Although it is a traditional Democratic Party garden, it is not voting for the Democratic Party unconditionally. So, if the Democratic Party loses as a result of this time, there is a possibility that this will be a vaccination for the Democratic Party. What does that mean? Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, said, "If we lose here, even if we win again, I think we should restructure the Democratic Party's strategy for Honam." In the case of Busan Geumjeong, I can't ignore that it's a traditional garden, but it's becoming a 1:1 structure. In addition, it is an extremely close situation where the game cannot be predicted due to the high resistance to First Lady Kim Gun-hee, and if he loses in the region, there is a possibility that President Yoon Suk Yeol's leadership will be completely tarnished. Because in the case of Busan, there are 18 parliamentary constituencies. They drove 17 cars there. Nevertheless, the opposition won 192 seats. In other words, if Busan did not give such a vote, the Democratic opposition would have been able to take more than 200 seats that could be impeached, but if they lose in such an area, there will be a huge crisis for the entire ruling party, and even if they win by a narrow margin, they will have a sense of crisis and voice of reflection.

[Anchor]
However, the head of Geumjeong-gu and the former head of the district office died of a cerebral hemorrhage, and the by-election is now being criticized because Kim Young-bae of the Democratic Party of Korea wasted taxpayers' money for providing the cause of the by-election. What do you think about the possibility that this will be a variable?

[Bae Jong Ho]
First of all, this is a very inappropriate statement. He immediately apologized for his mistake, and in the case of the Democratic Party, he referred it to the Ethics Tribunal and has started disciplinary proceedings, but overall, every word is very important. However, in my view, it will be difficult for this to affect the victory or defeat. Because in the case of Busan Geumjeong, two messages collide head-on. In other words, the second judgment theory claimed by the Democratic Party and the local worker theory claimed by the power of the people. That's why it won't affect this situation, but it must be a very inappropriate statement, I can tell you.

[Anchor]
In the by-election of Ganghwa County, Incheon, the early voting rate was close to 30%, but the variable now is that candidate Ahn Sang-soo, who served as mayor of Incheon, came out as an independent. Isn't the conservative vote going to be split?

[Lee Jong-geun]
There is a possibility of division. However, if you look back at the characteristics of this area, there is one data that may not have such a significant impact. It's the last election. In the very previous local elections, candidate Yoo Chun-ho and candidate Yoon Jae-sang overlapped as conservative candidates. So, there was a prospect that candidate Han Yeon-hee would go to Han Yeon-hee because the Democratic Party's candidate Yoo Chun-ho and Yoon Jae-sang came out together after the Democratic Party's candidate report, but this is not the case, with Yoo Chun-ho at 47.33 percent, Yoon Jae-sang at 17.36 percent, and Han Yeon-hee at 36.35 percent, the conservative candidate Yoo Chun-ho won the election now because people are important in this region, but who is this party pushing? So there is a strong sense that we should vote for the party. The Ganghwa-do area and Ganghwa-gun County are very security conscious because it is the closest border area to North Korea, such as Baengnyeong-do, in front of Ganghwa-do. Therefore, no matter how high the name of former Mayor Ahn Sang-soo is, it is time for him to come out. As you can see, CEO Han Dong-hoon goes to Geumjeong more than Ganghwa. CEO Han Dong-hoon believes that Ganghwa is not currently at a disadvantage, so I think he is focusing more on gold politics.

[Anchor]
The early voting rate for the superintendent election, which receives relatively less attention, was 8.28%, which is similar. The candidates of the progressive camp have been unified, but the conservative camp has two. Candidate Cho Jeon-hyuk, Yun Ho Award.

[Bae Jongho]
The current situation is very unpredictable, but the conservative candidate is going a little disadvantageous. The reason is that in the case of the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education election, it is a typical situation in which if they unite, they win and lose if they divide. But until recently, it was a 2:2 match. Two conservatives, two liberals. But now, the progressive side succeeded in complete unification at the last minute. But now, the conservative party has failed to unify the conservative party, and one conservative candidate said he would finish the race until the end. Then, in such an extremely close situation, conservatives are divided and progressives are unified, so progress is highly likely to win. In fact, the progressive superintendent won all three of the last three elections for the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education. The decisive reason is that conservatives were divided and progressives unified candidates, so in the current situation, the presidential election, which ended with a 0.7 percent difference if not unified, was the case.

[Anchor]
There is not much time left, but it is now the second week of the parliamentary audit. Can you tell us what you remember the most about a minute each?

[Lee Jong-geun]
As I said about the parliamentary audit in this section, I don't think it should be political. The inspection of the government should be centered on people's livelihood, and it is Kim Gun-hee and Lee Jae-myung. These are actually political conflicts. It's not actually a parliamentary audit. So last week, what stood out to me the most was the National Policy Committee, where both the ruling and opposition parties focused on people's livelihoods. It is an exploitation structure in which delivery app companies are actually causing pain to self-employed people. I think these scenes showed the true meaning of the government's audit, with ruling party lawmaker Kim Sung-won and Cho Kwang-jin of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party raising their voices together and urging the government to take measures on how to reform the delivery app itself.

[Anchor]
Is there anything that the professor remembered or wished for in the parliamentary audit?

[Bae Jong Ho]
First of all, I can't do political controversy.And I agree with the principle that we should go to the parliamentary inspection of people's livelihoods. So I gave up, but I think it was too much to even bring Moon Da-hye's drunk driving issue into the subject of the National Assembly, although it is acceptable to go to Lee Jae-myung and Kim Gun-hee. As expected, the part that drew attention was the issuance of an accompanying order. During last year's parliamentary inspection, there were three cases of issuing accompanying orders, and this time, eight of them were issued with accompanying orders, and five of them were related to the suspicion of Kim Gun-hee. But all of them were not home because they knew in advance. Therefore, it failed to deliver it, so it is noteworthy from the Democratic Party's point of view that even if the law itself is changed, the accompanying order can be enforced in the future.

[Anchor]
I see. Sunday night's hot political issues, critic Lee Jong-geun, and Professor Bae Jong-ho of Seha University. Thank you.