[New Square 10] The U.S. presidential election is just 15 days away.Open early voting for key contention sites

■ Host: Park Seok-won Anchor
■ Starring: Min Jeong-hoon, Professor of American Research at the National Diplomatic Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The U.S. presidential election is just 15 days away. As we are engaged in a super-contest, the pre-voting heat is also hot.

For more information, let's talk with Min Jeong-hoon, a professor of American Studies at the National Diplomatic Institute. Please come in.

First of all, early voting is very hot in major contending states, is there a reason why the voting is so hot?

[Minjeonghun]
Isn't this presidential election attracting a lot of public attention? And since it's very close, from the perspective of voters, the one vote they cast can produce meaningful results in a way. So, as a result of the two candidates, if the race is very wide, will there be a change just because I vote? This self-help evaluation can be made, but it is very close, and especially in the case of seven competing states, the approval rating of the candidates is really less than 1%. That's why you're very interested and the one vote you cast is very meaningful. So, since there is this part that can produce meaningful results for the future of the United States, I think that the pre-voting heat is hot because interest is highlighted as it progresses very closely.

[Anchor]
We're always interested in every vote, but isn't this part of the attention that the higher the early voting rate, the more favorable it will be to which party? Where would it be more advantageous?

[Minjeonghun]
Traditionally, research results show that progressive parties are advantageous. Because in the case of the United States, it is a two-party system of democracy, republican, progressive, and conservative. And in the case of the Republican Party, election day is not a public holiday in the United States because there are generally a lot of wealthy or elderly supporters. So you have to take time to come and vote while working. So, in the case of the Democratic Party, where there are many relatively young or low-income supporters because the elderly have more time to spare, the turnout will inevitably fall if they vote only on the day of the election. That's why if early voting is held and the time and space for voters to vote is expanded, then the Democratic Party is more advantageous because there are many progressive parties, young people who support the Democratic Party, and people with low incomes, and those who have two jobs and three control. This time, early voting was so close to 70% in 2020, that even on the Republican side, early voting cannot be ignored. In 2020, former President Trump lost so close that early voting is fraudulent or mail-in voting is fraudulent, but this time, he is trying to persuade him to go to early voting by changing his strategy and encouraging him to do so. Looking at that, it's hard to see that early voting will be unilaterally driven to only one party or tilted. Nevertheless, I predict that it will work again this time in some favor of the Democratic Party.

[Anchor]
the progressive party, the Democratic Party So, the higher the early voting of Harris, the more favorable there are analyses, but so far, we don't know what will happen because Trump also encourages early voting. The two candidates are very busy with 15 days left. First of all, Harris visited a black church, and Trump was seen frying fries at McDonald's. First of all, Harris' attendance at church services, what kind of strategy should this be considered?

[Minjeonghun]
I heard you visited a black church in Georgia on your 60th birthday. So these are two things that reflect the situation that Harris is in. Georgia, a representative Sun Belt contention state. There, the traditional Democratic vote these days, the black vote, is a little strange. This is a situation where the Democratic Party is very nervous because of the results of these polls that show that they are leaving the Democratic Party. Of course, that's not the case with the follow-up polls. Black votes are still going to Harris, the Democratic nominee, and these follow-up polls have put me at ease.Ma must still be nervous. That's why Georgia has a very large black population.

Since it is about one-third of the electorate, it makes up more than 30% of the electorate, so where is the black vote going? The important thing for Harris is that the traditional Democratic supporters, black voters, must be properly mobilized to win Georgia on the day of the vote. That's why I think he visited a black church to win the votes of black people who believe that the votes that will come to him in Georgia, one of the most competitive states, are shaking on his birthday.

[Anchor]
I think Harris should be seen as a house rabbit and a vegetable garden, and then Trump will show you the scene of frying fries at McDonald's. This scene. Why are you implementing this strategy?

[Minjeonghun]
It's the same situation as Harris. I think it's a performance to make up for my weaknesses. In the case of former President Trump, isn't he from a gold spoon that everyone knows? Because I'm a billionaire. In fact, what kind of part-time job or experience would former President Trump have at McDonald's, which is called the representative restaurant for ordinary people in the United States? Of course, there's a rumor that former President Trump enjoys hamburgers.Nevertheless, he emphasizes that former President Trump is a presidential candidate who is directly related to the lives of the common people and understands the lives of the common people. In addition, I think there is such a political paving the way to refute the claim that Harris had a part-time job at McDonald's when she was in college.

[Anchor]
There have been claims that Harris had a part-time job at McDonald's in the past, and refutation of that. No, I've never worked a part-time job like that, I think there's a similar move to emphasize this. There are signs that the fierce war of nerves between the two sides is getting more and more overheated. Your remarks are getting stronger. How do you view these remarks?

[Minjeonghun]
The fact that the level of the two candidates' remarks is that the current race is very fierce. If you think about a few months ago, after the shooting of former President Trump in July, he was very gentle and inclusive when he sent a message of unity at the Republican National Convention. What kind of atmosphere it reflects is that he took the victory. Since he has won, he is showing a message of unity and a relaxed attitude that he will lead the country as a national leader while doing positive content rather than negative content as a national leader. However, the situation has changed so much that they are competing fiercely, so if they compete fiercely, they need an election strategy that changes the status quo or brings it to their advantage.

For that, it is necessary to make an effort to shake the status quo by attacking the other candidate. Both candidates are showing that. In the case of candidate Trump, he is very personally attacking Harris' mental part, saying, "Isn't he crazy?" Harris did not make such an attack at first, but it is unfolding very close, and recently, Trump's rise is so close that it cannot be ignored. And in seven competing states, former President Trump is leading. That's why you can't sit idly by on this part. So, highlight the problems of former President Trump and shake the status quo so that the atmosphere can return to him. At the very least, it is necessary to create momentum for the supporters to gather. So, I think that the positions of the two candidates are bound to be rough.

[Anchor]
Trump's mouth is famous for being so rough and familiar, but from Harris' point of view, some analysts say that the more harsh the story, the more shaken the voters they originally had. What do you think?

[Minjeonghun]
That's what's considered. So, as you said, if Harris had continued to rise, as she had shown over the past few months, she wouldn't have engaged in such a wild war of words. However, as the approval rating, which had been rising, faltered and fell out a little, and as Trump's supporters gathered, the polls are very close and Trump's close advantage is changing. That's why he's able to show a stronger performance to rally his support base. So, some of the supporters complain about why Harris does not attack so strongly and show strong performance like former President Trump. I think you've considered that, but as you said, if you show such a strong side, you can be relatively shaken. So it can be negative because it can be shaken to show the mild and moderate side of the past, but now the situation is so urgent that I think it's showing a strong side.

[Anchor]
Now that they are competing so fiercely, there may be a situation that they have never seen in more than 200 years of the U.S. presidential election. Is it because of issues such as voter uniformity and election disobedience?

[Minjeonghun]
The most talked about saying that such an election result, which is rare in American political history, is that the most talked about scenario is that the electors are tied 268:268. So if you look at the U.S. federal constitution, you have to win a majority of the electors to be president of the United States. So the candidate who won 270 votes out of 538 votes is elected, but since the total is 538, it can be logically divided into 268:268. And if you look at the current distribution of electors in the seven competing states, it's not impossible. So 268:268, you can assume that there could be an unprecedented event.

If that happens, in the case of the United States, the winner is decided not by re-election, but by a provisional election in the U.S. House of Representatives. So there's a situation where the two candidates become candidates for the provisional election and each state can only exercise one vote, and if that happens, we'll have to consider the number of Democratic and Republican seats in each state. Considering that, there is a prediction that former President Trump will be more advantageous if that happens because the Republican Party is slightly ahead in 50 states. Anyway, I think that there are really various scenarios because the election is so close.

[Anchor]
I'll point out the other parts, too. North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia. Evidence supporting the dispatch of troops to Russia is coming out one after another, and we also showed it in our previous report.The issue of dispatch of troops is emerging as the Korean questionnaire for measuring the size of the military uniform has been released. But the U.S. government is saying it can't confirm it, so why is that?

[Minjeonghun]
From the perspective of the U.S. government, it will be very cautious and embarrassing. So, the U.S. presidential election is just around the corner, and two wars are already underway. Among them, the Biden administration's situation is due to the Israel-Hamas war, the lack of control of Israel, and this is a very embarrassing situation as public criticism grows, but in fact, the war in Ukraine was somewhat forgotten by American voters. However, following military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, as you have just said, it is emerging again due to North Korea's dispatch of troops. That's a situation that the Biden administration is never happy about. So I think there are two considerations. It's embarrassing to highlight the situation of another Biden administration before the presidential election, so isn't it taking the position as carefully as possible?

Second, it is said that North Korean soldiers will be dispatched, but there is nothing accurate about whether the soldiers are combat soldiers or special forces. In general, experts' perspective is that rather than combat soldiers, they are engineers or non-combat forces, so they play a role in supporting troops that are lacking or from the rear. This analysis is still gaining more power. Considering that, I think this is why we are being cautious about the fact that North Korean troops have been sent to the front line, analyzing it narrowly like this and not confirming it yet.

[Anchor]
In terms of whether the North Korean military is dispatched and supports from the back or develops military strategies together from the front, the probability of this war being longer is higher than before. I think the Ukraine war will change a lot depending on the results of the U.S. presidential election. What do you think?

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. If Harris is elected, the war will be prolonged. Because Harris has declared that she will continue to provide support to Ukraine, the question is, will the U.S. be able to provide large-scale military support to Ukraine as it did in the early days of the Biden administration? I have doubts about this part. That's why we can't provide large-scale military support like we did in the past, but Ukraine will continue to provide support, so I'm expecting that the war will be prolonged as it falls into a lull.

If candidate Trump is elected, there is a high possibility that a very unfavorable situation will develop for Ukraine because he is pledging to end the war as soon as possible. Of course, that doesn't mean the war will end in a short period of time, as Trump says.Ma thinks that there is a high possibility of a somewhat unfavorable armistice agreement for Ukraine as the situation slowly unfolds in favor of Russia.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here.

So far, I have been with Min Jeong-hoon, a professor of American Studies at the National Diplomatic Institute. Thank you.