North Korea's participation in the war in Ukraine... Kim Jong Un conducted 'Operation Guidance in Seoul'

■ Host: Anchor Kim Youngsoo Kim, Juda Won-Ang
■ Starring: Kim Dae-young, Researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea's dispatch of troops to Ukraine has been officially confirmed. It is expected to have a significant impact on the situation on the Korean Peninsula as well as the Ukraine-Russia war. Concerns are also growing in the international community. Let's take a look at the news of North Korea's dispatch of combat troops and recent trends in North Korea with Kim Dae-young, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy. North Korean troops will be sent to Russia-Ukraine war The National Intelligence Service actually confirmed it, right?

[Daeyoung Kim]
It was officially distributed through a press release. What's important is satellite images, or didn't North Korea provide a lot of KN-23 missiles or shells to Russia right now? The current activities of weapons-related personnel in Ukraine were also identified through artificial intelligence, and the contents were also included. Then in the Russian Primorsky Region. It appears on the screen, but you can also see the North Korean military receiving supplies. The more important thing in this video is that Korean came out. There's a North Korean word. Don't fall for it, this is also included in this video, so until then, I thought, "Is the North Korean military in Russia?" and this time, another solid evidence was created through that video.

[Anchor]
Then, how many North Korean troops have been dispatched this time?

[Daeyoung Kim]
The National Intelligence Service and all the news from overseas are estimated to be about 10,000 people. But the problem is that depending on what kind of results North Korean soldiers really get into the front line in the future, I think additional dispatch can be continued.

[Anchor]
Then, what units in North Korea will be dispatched?

[Daeyoung Kim]
First of all, I think we selected agents based on special forces troops. However, we generally see the size of the North Korean military's special forces as 200,000. The figure of 200,000 is problematic. Compared to our military, our military has a special forces unit called Special Forces, and if you look at the Army, there is a special forces unit that mainly performs strike and reconnaissance missions. We have divided perks and special forces, and when we estimate 200,000 North Korean special fighters, we estimate them all together.

There is a light infantry unit and a unit that actually conducts special operations, but several units are mixed and talk about 200,000. Perhaps in the case of North Korean soldiers who went to Russia this time, retired soldiers may be the center. Among the special forces, there is a possibility that only the best personnel were selected and there are many possibilities.

[Anchor]
I heard that the place on the screen is Russia's Far East base?

[Daeyoung Kim]
From bases in Primorsky Krai or the Far East, troops move there.

[Anchor]
How did you move?

[Daeyoung Kim]
There's also a saying that they used a ship. There's also a rumor that he used a transport plane to go. Based on the videos that are coming out now, it is difficult to say that they are training, but for now, it is seen as a process of receiving supplies from the Russian military, changing into Russian military uniforms, and preparing them.

[Anchor]
You're going to get ready over there and get some basic training or other training and go to a war zone in Ukraine?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Maybe you can prepare there first and then train there, or go to the area near the Russia-Ukraine front and do practical training, or you can do both at the same time.

[Anchor]
But the problem is, can you communicate with the language? Earlier, we also reported that Russia distributed questionnaires in Korean to North Korean soldiers who were dispatched to Russia, so they were asked to write down the size of military boots and military uniforms. Will this part be okay?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the Russian side is bringing in a lot of mercenaries from various countries around the world. The problem of language communication you just mentioned. This is another barrier. But if you look closely, don't we have a translator function on our smartphones these days? So what's unique about the war in Ukraine is that you can find out more news through social media than through general news reports.

So, if you look at such SNS, you can use the function of a smartphone translator to command and communicate with these foreign mercenaries. In fact, there are cases where Chinese people are also mercenaries. Then, Cuba, India, Nepal, and even Africa participated as mercenaries. In some cases, they were scammed and dragged to the wire.

[Anchor]
However, among the North Korean military, North Korean soldiers from various divisions, such as the Sniper Brigade, the Light Infantry Brigade, and the Aviation Army Brigade, are dispatched in addition to the Special Operations Forces.

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's right. In fact, in a way, this is different from our military, but in the case of the part you just mentioned as our military, he is a soldier with a special character. It's not really a special operation unit. There is such a difference, but if you calculate it in a lump, the number comes out to be 200,000. It is very likely that among those troops, only those with good physical strength and combat power were selected and taken.

[Anchor]
I heard that there was also a Korean questionnaire. According to a CNN report, the North Korean military through a Korean questionnaire. This is the screen released by CNN. It's written right now. The size of the hat, the perimeter of the hat.

[Daeyoung Kim]
In the past, there were relatively many Russian-speaking soldiers because North Korea had military cooperation with the Soviet Union. But now, even within the North Korean military, there has not been much military cooperation with Russia, so not many people speak Russian well. Therefore, it seems that from Russia's point of view, there is no choice but to use such a Korean questionnaire when managing troops.

[Anchor]
However, the Russian government has not officially stated its position on the dispatch of North Korean troops. There are even rumors that they are giving fake IDs to North Korean troops who have been dispatched now. What's the reason?

[Daeyoung Kim]
From Russia's point of view, if North Korea formalizes its dispatch of troops, there may be domestic problems and international relations problems. Russia is also a multi-ethnic country if you look closely. As a result, there are Mongolians, so they deceive the status of North Korean soldiers in that way. And if it's official, isn't North Korea actually not officially mentioning it? In that case, international sanctions may also arise, so it seems that they are deceiving the status of North Korean soldiers in this way by considering each other in that respect.

[Anchor]
Inside Russia, there seems to be an analysis that it will be difficult for the front line situation to play a decisive role because the North Korean military lacks experience. On the other hand, some people said that the situation would change anew. How should I look at it?

[Daeyoung Kim]
I feel the same way, but if it's wrong, it can be self-inflicted. The North Korean military cannot go and demonstrate its ability to turn the tide on the Ukrainian front. The first reason is, of course, the Korean Peninsula has a lot of mountainous terrain. As a result, the North Korean military's special forces also train a lot in preparation for these mountainous terrain. The battlefield environment itself is different between the Korean Peninsula and Ukraine. Ukraine is mostly flat. There is no mountain.

And one of the most important variables in the Ukraine war is drones. The reason why neither Ukraine nor Russia can fundamentally turn the tide right now is that thousands of drones fly a day. If there is an intention to attack something, it is all understood by the drone. Then shell the area where the troops gather, or use drones to self-destruct. That's why the biggest problem for the Russian military is being attacked like that, so they are fighting a war of charge while consuming troops.

If that happens, a lot of North Korean troops could be literally injured. Another problem is that some people will run away to Ukraine when they experience PTSD. And the other thing that I think is crucial is that the salaries of the mercenaries employed by Russia are quite high. If you get at least $3,000 to $5,000 a month, this is a personal opinion, but at least half or two-thirds of that money should be taken by the North Korean authorities.

If the North Korean military's casualties increase on the front line, there may be complaints about salaries. Then there could be another rebellion. If this is done wrong, North Korean troops could revolt on the Russian front and there is a possibility of mass desertion. It seems that there are several possibilities left.

[Anchor]
It's on the screen right now. It's the image of the North Korean military with a Russian soldier. If you look at that screen, there is a story that the North Korean military may have been sent to get technology related to Russian missile development.

[Daeyoung Kim]
Shouldn't we do after-sales service when we see cars rather than technology? Supporting follow-up support related to missiles or ammunition. And another NIS press release also showed that when Kim Jong-un went to the missile production base, he used artificial intelligence to match the person next to him. Usually, because artificial intelligence technology has improved, if there is a possibility of more than 80%, it should be considered the same person. Such people are now being put into the Russia-Ukraine war in North Korea.

[Anchor]
First of all, I sent troops to Russia. And as you said, receiving mercenary salaries, and since North Korea has dispatched troops, won't you get some skills or something?

[Daeyoung Kim]
In my view, the fact that Russia has sent troops beyond ammunition and missiles in the past, for example, energy or supplies that North Korea lacks. If you focused on food and energy, sending mercenaries means providing cash. They give dollars and stuff to North Korea on a regular basis every month. In this way, at least a third of them are given to North Korean soldiers and their families who participated in the Ukraine war. In a way, when Korea participated in the Vietnam War, of course, it participated as a member of the free world, but wasn't there an economic purpose? From the perspective of North Korea, it seems that such a thing has not been calculated.

[Anchor]
The more the situation becomes, the deeper the concerns of NATO will inevitably deepen, but there is a possibility that additional sanctions may be imposed on Russia and North Korea. Will it be effective?

[Daeyoung Kim]
There's a good chance. But we should pay attention to Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. It is impossible to impose sanctions at the UN level and at the Security Council level. And as relations between North Korea and Russia improved, people say that the current sanctions are water sanctions, but they became water sanctions. Then NATO members and other U.S. allies have no choice but to go to individual sanctions. In addition to this, I think Korea should consider more serious sanctions than now.

[Anchor]
Since Russia is a permanent member of the UN, all sanctions are impossible if Russia opposes it. The dispatch of the North Korean military could be a burden for some now, leading to pressure from Western countries on the country. And the way Ukraine supports Ukraine could change. How do you see it?

[Daeyoung Kim]
If it's expected to be as early as early as November. By then, North Korean soldiers who are now in Russia will probably appear on the front lines. Many foreign predict that North Korean troops will be deployed in large numbers toward Krusk, one of the battlegrounds. There are no videos or photos of combat yet, but if such videos start to appear around early November, it will be a very embarrassing situation for the Korean government. First, the international community, especially NATO members and Ukraine, is doing that, and South Korea has not provided weapons of destruction, hasn't it?

Then the pressure on supporting lethal weapons will increase. Second, if North Korean troops start showing up on the front lines of Ukraine, the Ukrainian government will probably make that request. For example, the South Korean government or the South Korean military should come and conduct psychological warfare and consumption activities against the North Korean military. Whether it's dispatch or dispatch, such requests are likely to flood. However, we cannot ignore this situation, so I think that depending on how the government manages this issue, there may be situations in which we are directly or indirectly involved in the war in Ukraine.

[Anchor]
President Xi Jinping is on the screen right now. There is a lot of talk about North Korea-China relations being neglected as North Korea-Russia relations are getting closer. Do you think that's actually how it's going right now?

[Daeyoung Kim]
In fact, when I went to Beijing in mid-August, I looked around the North Korean embassy, and the situation was very bad. For example, it was reported in the media, but the Chinese authorities are now telling the North Korean embassy to withdraw all personnel other than ambassador work. That's why there were a lot of North Koreans in Beijing. The North Korean embassy is one of the largest foreign embassies in Beijing. There's even an apartment complex inside the embassy. If you go to the back gate, there are some North Korean shops. Most of them are closed.

That's how bad the relationship between North Korea and China is now. Another thing is that if North Korea and Russia become close together, China is not a country that borders together. Of course, the relationship between China and Russia is very good on the surface and not bad on the inside, but it can be an Achilles heel in a way. Especially from China's perspective. That's why it's hard to evaluate this situation as such a good situation.

[Anchor]
As North Korea continues to make provocations and strengthen military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, China faces an embarrassing situation, some experts in China say. Then, do you expect China to continue to distance itself in accordance with military cooperation between North Korea and Russia in the future?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Therefore, I think we will seek more relations with Korea. Some say that President Xi Jinping may visit Korea at the APEC summit in Gyeongju next year. According to the recent parliamentary audit of the Korean Embassy in Beijing, President Yoon Suk Yeol should visit China first. In a way, from China's point of view, if relations with North Korea are neglected, it can be a situation in which relations with us have to be pulled, so in that regard, I think the Korea-China relationship will be better than it is now.

[Anchor]
Thank you very much. Let's also look at inter-Korean relations. North Korea has recently raised its threat to South Korea by claiming the infiltration of South Korean drones into Pyongyang, and recently released photos of the wreckage of the drone, saying it is decisive evidence of the infiltration of South Korean drones. Let's see the screen first. However, if you look at the photos released by North Korea, there are no photos such as leaflets. I don't know how far to believe this argument.

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's right. North Korea showed you several pictures claiming that our military sent them. Of course, it is difficult to deny the possibility itself, but when you look at the photos, there is a possibility that the unmanned aerial vehicles used by our military have already been disclosed in the media, so they may have been cloned.

And there are differences between the drones that appeared in Pyongyang earlier in the picture. So I don't know if that's what our military sent, and more importantly, we have to disclose the flight path inside, but we didn't disclose that. In the past, in the case of our military, when North Korea sent drones in 2014, we collected them, and the National Defense Research Institute and related agencies investigated them, and released the flight route and activity details. But strangely, North Korea is only showing pictures now, and they show them little by little in a salami way. That's why it seems difficult to conclude 100% that our military sent it.

[Anchor]
But recently, inter-Korean relations have been strained. North Korea also blew up the inter-Korean road. Chairman Kim Jong-un has made public remarks on threats against South Korea. Let's take a look at the report of Chosun Joongang TV. I'm appearing on the screen right now. It's directly pointing to the Seoul operation map.

[Daeyoung Kim]
If you look closely, there was the April 27 inter-Korean summit in 2018. Before that, Kim Jong-un threatened South Korea a lot in that way. He opened the map and showed me instructions as if he was going to hit something. However, given that they are now doing what they did in the past, they are very sensitive to the Pyongyang drone incident or the North Korean leaflets sent by our North Korean defector groups. And another thing is that it seems that the public sentiment in North Korea itself is not the same as before. In a way, it is assumed that it is a kind of propaganda-like activity to solidify the system.

[Anchor]
North Korea has recently started to revise the constitution. And it's confirmed, right? That's how you made the announcement, right? You define our country as an enemy?

[Daeyoung Kim]
In fact, Kim Jong-un is showing such a threat, but isn't it the two-state theory that Kim Jong-un put forward? However, the problem is that if such a military confrontation or tension between the two Koreas accelerates, at some point, it will eventually come to the inter-Korean dialogue table. If you look at past cases, there are often such cases. In the April 27 inter-Korean summit in 2018, North Korea came back to the international community and started inter-Korean dialogue with us because of such concerns that the U.S. could attack North Korea.

Therefore, I think that North Korea will have to think a lot about controlling the level of the situation because if excessive tension is created in the current situation, it will inevitably be forced to engage in inter-Korean dialogue.

[Anchor]
Thank you. Today, we looked at North Korea's participation in the Ukraine war and North Korea's recent moves toward the South. I pointed it out with Kim Dae-young, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy. Thank you.