U.S. presidential election D-9, 7 contending states are so close... "Winning or losing by 1 percentage point."

■ Host: Jo Su-hyun Anchor
■ Starring: Commentator Lee Jong-soo

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN24] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The U.S. presidential election, in which a super-contest is taking place, is just 9 days away. Former President Trump is on the rise, but the seven contending states that will determine the outcome are very close. Let's take a closer look with commentator Lee Jong-soo. The U.S. presidential election is really just around the corner, and the game is still in the fog, right?

[Reporter]
That's right. Since it's such a first-time battle, it's difficult to predict who will win. In terms of trends, former President Trump continues to rise. You can see it by looking at the national approval rating. Let's take a look at the graphic. If you look here, there are cases where Harris is ahead, and there is also a tie, and then former President Trump turns the tables and leads. This is a trend that is increasing right now.

It's not all in here. As you can see from the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections, in the case of Democratic candidates, they need to get ahead of the national approval rating because of Shy Trump, so they have expectations to do well in competing states, right? But if you look at a New York Times poll, it's a 48:48 tie. So the New York Times said Harris is at a disadvantage.

[Anchor]
Win or lose will be decided in the contested state, what are the current polls?

[Reporter]
Let's start with the Bloomberg survey. As you can see, Harris is ahead in four states, including Arizona, and Trump is ahead in three states, including Georgia. There are also these investigations. But there is RealClearPolitics, which provides the average value of the most recent polls.

I looked at the results this morning and you can see Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, all of these strong Democratic areas here in the Blue Wall. Rust Belt, three places here, and Sun Belt to the south, it's not coming out graphically yet.Ma is leading in four sunbelts, all seven states, Trump.

But as you can see, it's 2.2%, 0.1%, so it's a very small difference. In other words, it may vary from pollster to pollster and may be overturned at the last minute. That's what I'm saying.

[Anchor]
In the end, it will be difficult to predict the outcome until the end. If you look at one of the variables, who do you think will benefit from Israel's attack on Iran yesterday?

[Reporter]
Didn't Prime Minister Netanyahu precisely hit military facilities, not nuclear or oil facilities? He intervened in the U.S. presidential election. I think there was also an ulterior motive to avoid such criticism. However, the rise of the Middle East crisis is bad for Harris. It will be a burden.

So that's why yesterday, there was a war on the campaign trail involving former President Trump, a black superstar singer, Beyoncé, and they're having a dance party, didn't they attack Harris like this? Will such attacks continue to work in the future? And it seems unlikely to me, but is there a possibility that Netanyahu, who is close to Trump, will attack him or support him before the presidential election? I think we should keep an eye on this.

[Anchor]
So let's take a look at why Vice President Harris is struggling. Some believe that black voters are losing ground in the competition for key issues.

[Reporter]
You'll see the results of the University of Chicago poll graphically. Let's take a look at the bottom. In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, 92% of black voters were swept by Biden. But if you look at the top left, Harris' approval rating for black male voters is only 58%. And if you look at Hispanic voter support, Trump is rather 11 percentage points ahead of Harris in Hispanics.

As you said here, Harris is showing strength in the key issue of abortion rights, but isn't the first issue of interest among American voters right now the economy and the second issue of illegal immigrants? There's a strong candidate Trump here. I remember it's 23 days local time.

Didn't Chief of Staff John Kelly, a close aide to Trump, make the revelation? But didn't Harris attack Trump by comparing him to Hitler as if he had been waiting? I attacked it. Let's listen to it first.

[CAMALA HARRIS / VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES] Donald Trump's reference to Adolf Hitler, who was responsible for the deaths of six million Jews and hundreds of thousands of Americans, is very problematic and incredibly dangerous. ]

[Reporter]
While Harris focuses on the value of democracy, Trump's case is based on maga, American firstism and Christian conservatism, but in competing states, residents' complaints, in other words, high prices, and living difficulties. On top of that, complaints about illegal immigrants who commit crimes and then pressure to lower wages and take away jobs. I'm scratching these itchy spots right now. Let's listen to the related remarks.

[Donald Trump / Former U.S. President (on the 24th, Georgia): The interest rate was 2%. Now the interest rate is 10%, but I can't get money. We're going to drill, drill, drill and everything will go down. ]

[Anchor]
Former President Trump is on the rise in competing stocks like this, but in this situation, isn't there a Shy Trump or Shy conservative? Then, can it be seen as being more advantageous to former President Trump than the current situation?

[Reporter]
That's right. But I don't know how much it's going to be. In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Shy Trump is known to be 2.2% to 6.9%. But as I said, we don't know exactly how much Shy Trump has decreased right now.Ma said that among Trump supporters, white trunks in the U.S., manual labor workers outside the city center, these people are not interested in the polls at all, so they can't be reflected.

That's why the Trump poll's approval rating came out somewhat lower. There is an analysis like this. White trunks classified as Shy Trump, if these people actively participate in the presidential election, they can help Trump in ultra-close competition states.

[Anchor]
But then Hidden Harris, so does Harris have any hidden votes?

[Reporter]
It is said that there is some antipathy among voters to the birth of the first black female president in American history. So there are quite a few women, Hidden Harris, who don't even tell their husbands. There's a story like this. I think we will have to open the lid to know the scale. I remember on the 24th, Obama and Harris jointly campaigned in Georgia.

With this, First Lady Michelle Obama also participated in the war. And since Beyoncé joined from Texas yesterday, there is a possibility that black people will rally a few days before the presidential election and vote for Harris at the last minute.

[Anchor]
Shy Trump and Hidden Harris will be variables. Another variable is the pre-voting rate, as we saw in the last presidential election.

[Reporter]
In general, when talking about turnout, Republican supporters are more active in voting than Democratic supporters, so the higher the turnout, the better for Democratic candidate Harris. However, in the case of early voting, it is very high. This means that, under the encouragement of former President Trump, Republican supporters will participate more than Democratic supporters.

It's also a CNN report. Therefore, it is difficult to conclude that the advantages and disadvantages will be determined according to the pre-voting rate. So you can't even judge Harris to be advantageous. And the other thing is that there is a variable in Harris' favor. Arizona and Nevada are two competing states on the U.S. presidential election day.

Including this, there are votes for and against abortion rights in 10 competing states. However, it is a variable that pro-Harris voters who advocate abortion rights actively vote for the presidential election.

[Anchor]
Since it's such a first encounter this time, I think there will be people who are curious about this situation. The U.S. presidential election is an indirect election. If 538 electors are elected as representatives, and Trump and Harris split half and half, shouldn't they have a majority? What happens then?

[Reporter]
In that case, all procedures are set. The Federal Assembly will be held on January 3rd next year. But the president decides in the House and the vice president decides in the Senate. By state, there will be 50 representatives of the majority of political parties. Then 50 people will have a delegation and they will vote one by one.

Then if you get more than 26 votes, you're elected president. So, isn't there also a federal Senate election in this presidential election? Then the results of the House of Representatives election will come out. And depending on the results of that House of Representatives election, the president will be different if the number of 269 and 269 electors is equal.

[Anchor]
If such a situation unfolds, we can't rule out the presidential election objection.

[Reporter]
Since it is so close, the possibility of objecting to the presidential election has been mentioned since a long time ago. In the case of a really close game, there is a possibility that even 4 out of 10 Trump supporters, about 42% of them, are likely to disobey Trump if he loses. And this year, about 120 election-related lawsuits have been filed by Trump's camp by the beginning of this month.

Then, it's about four times more than in 2020. But most of the lawsuits are about illegal immigrants registering as voters when they are not qualified or mail-in voting is suspected of fraud. So there is an interpretation of whether this is to lay the foundation for the presidential election disobedience. It seems that the possibility of a long litigation cannot be ruled out if the presidential election objection is made.

[Anchor]
I see. The U.S. presidential election is just around the corner, so I'll watch it with interest. So far, we've been with commentator Lee Jong-soo. Thank you.