Trump Is Harder Than the First...."Unexpected Declaration to Korea, It's Enough" [Y Record]

■ Host: Anchor Lee Jung-seop, Anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Professor Heo Jun-young, Sogang University's Department of Economics

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

◇ Anchor> Although Korea's domestic demand is not good, the economy was supported by exports in these areas. Anyway, uncertainties are maintained in the Korean political situation and the business community, so there are concerns that such exports will also have an impact on foreign confidence or disadvantage in the future.

◆Huh Joon-young> Looking at the number of exports itself, export growth has been decreasing recently compared to the same month last year. In fact, it is not safe to say that exports almost supported our economic growth in the first and second quarters. The momentum of exports is falling out now. On top of that, when the second Trump administration comes in on January 20, new policies will begin to be introduced. One of the things we talk about in foreign countries is that the most vulnerable economy for the second Trump administration is the Korean economy, due to various structures. So it is also true that the future of exports seems dark in those areas. In fact, according to a recent study by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Korea's exports can be reduced from $22.2 billion to $44.8 billion when Trump's 20% universal tariff comes in. Korea's exports in 2023 will be about $630 billion. So, if it becomes the worst scenario and exports decrease by about $45 billion, exports could decrease by 7% as of 2023. This is what happens. I keep saying the same thing again and again today, but I need to respond, but to what extent I am responding. If you think carefully about Trump, he's a very powerful person. For countries with weak leadership, it is very likely that negotiations will be postponed to the next level. There is a high probability that they will tell you to recover your country's leadership and sit at the negotiating table. In that sense, I think there are parts where we are less responsive.

◇Anchor> What do you think of the Korea-U.S. FTA if the second Trump is launched?

◆Huh Joon-young> There's something very interesting. During the Moon Jae In administration, the Korea-U.S. summit was held in Washington, DC, USA in June 2017. At this time, President Trump suddenly said at a press conference that he would renegotiate the Korea-U.S. FTA, even though there was no consultation between working-level officials. So what was done at this time was that we started the steel quota system in these things, so that we wouldn't allow Korean steel to pass over more than a certain amount of a year. As some of you may remember, I said that I would impose high tariffs on washing machines in Korea. There is a possibility that it will come out unexpectedly like this. That's why it's like this. Even the negotiations he had in the past are in a position where he is reversing. For example, as I said earlier, the customs agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States was also called the USMC, which means that we will reconsider this as well. A situation in which he is reversing even his old promise. I can tell you why the Korea-US FTA would be an exception.

Excerpted: Lee Sun Digital News Team Editor

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