◆ [YTN Radio SHINYUL's news]
■ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (17:00-19:00)
■ Air date: November 11, 2024 (Monday)
■ Proceedings: Shin Yul, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University
■ Dialogue: Jang Sung-chul, Director of Public Opinion Center, Kim Min-ha, Current Affairs Critic
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.
Jang Sung-chul
-IF Appoints 'Chief of Staff Lee Sang-min'? Is it meaningful to reform
- The Yoon administration needs to decide to appoint a 'critical figure'
- How to recover its approval rating? 'Kim Gun-hee independent counsel' prospective review
- It won't be a matter of not taking Kim on an overseas trip
- Lee Jae-myung's ruling shows that 'the entire progressive camp'
- Progressive Party' may need a 'Plan B' after Lee Jae-myung's prison sentence
Kim Min-ha
- Decline in support of the 尹 Party, 'watching' rather than stopping
- Follow-up measures taken by the Lee 尹 administration, there is a long way to go for public sentiment
- From the standpoint of power, the arrest of Myung Tae-kyun is 'much easier'
- People's power, Lee Jae-myung's prison sentence
- Both ruling and opposition parties will continue to lean on 'faulty'
- Those who come out of their respective 'weaknesses' will be the 'winner'
◆ Sin Yul: The first part of Sin Yul's news head-to-head competition begins on Monday with majestic and solemn music. Monday is the first part of politics, Kim & Chang. We have no choice but to say something as serious as this majestic music. Let me introduce the two of you who came out today. First, Jang Sung-chul, director of the Public Opinion Center, is here.
◇ Kim Min-ha: Hello.
◆ Shin Yul: Kim Minha is a current affairs critic. Please come in.
◇ Kim Min-ha: Hello
◆ Shin Yul: Since this is politics Kim & Chang, our writer... Our writer and I are the same at the end. My writer is Yul too. Maybe it's the night, but I'm a lawyer.
◇ Kim Min-ha: It suddenly becomes very heavy. It can be a little light at night, but the law
◆ Sin-ryul: But what this is is, General Kwon-ryul uses Bam-ryul. The Chinese characters are the same. You can see that you have no choice but to meet them on TV.
◇ Kim Min-ha: We should go with the court atmosphere.
◆ Shin Yul: But now that I think about it, it's kind of weird. But I made a segment called "Today's Client". What this is is... You can pick a person issue and tell us what you really want to say. Do you know what parentheses say here? If you don't feel good after a while, you can suddenly disappear, so you have to do it with all your heart. First of all, Director Jang
■ Jang Seong-cheol: It's okay. Chief of Staff Jeong Jin-seok
◆ Sin Yul: Who is the president of Yoon Suk Yeol?
■ Jang Seong-cheol: That's what I'm saying. It's because I criticized a lot on the show last time when I came to the steering committee's parliamentary audit and said what's wrong with various issues in terms of legal, political, and common sense. So I thought why Chief of Staff Jeong Jin-seok talked about the current situation like that when he was serving five terms, vice chairman, and had a lot of political experience, but after watching the president's press conference, I understood. I think that's what the president thinks. That's why the president thought so, so the chief of staff couldn't talk about other thoughts and judgments. So I say that I'm very sorry and understand that I cursed.
◆ Shin Yul: So in the end, the president says there's a problem.
■ Jang Sung-chul: I didn't say that. That's the professor's interpretation.
◆ Sin Yul: I see. Our critic, Kim Minha.
◇ Kim Min-ha: That's how you do it. I don't know how to do it.
◆ Shin Yul: You have to do it because it could suddenly disappear.
◇ Kim Min-ha: So I was thinking about Jang Sung-chul, but why did I try to say Jang Sung-chul as a conservative critic? What should I do if I go like this? During the press conference, the president of Yoon Suk Yeol talked a lot about the special prosecutor. You've said a lot that this is unconstitutional and human rights violations, but I'll do it as an independent counsel. The special prosecutor is now the client to me. In fact, he criticized various things, but after combining the facts of the media and things like that, for example, the purpose that the system itself is inherently unconstitutional, and that it is unconstitutional if the opposition party exercises its right to recommend without agreement between the ruling and opposition parties, and that it is a human rights violation if the special prosecutor investigates what the prosecution has investigated again. After comprehensively checking the media's facts and things like that, the other thing is that even if there is a lot of room to consider whether the special prosecutor system could be abused or whether this is a special prosecutor's case, in the case of whether these parts are unconstitutional or not, I would like you to think twice about whether or not the special prosecutor's case is a special prosecutor's case. That's what I'm saying.
◆ Sin-ryul: There's a reason why I'm looking at the two of you here, especially in a very positive way. This is a review. Everyone needs to peel it. That's what I'm always like. There can definitely be an ideological orientation. Everyone has that. In my opinion, it is necessary to distinguish between ideological orientation and factionalism. However, in most cases, if you can't distinguish between ideological orientation and factionalism, there is something that just sides with a certain side unconditionally, but that doesn't seem so desirable. But I think these two are really great people in that respect.
■ Jang Seong-cheol: I'm going to make a sugar.
◆ Sin-ryul: What party is it?
■ Jang Sung-chul : Everything
◆ Shinryul: Ddakdang. That's important. Realmeter, stay still. The outline of this Realmeter poll is an ARS poll of 2,056 voters aged 18 or older nationwide at the request of the Energy Economy Newspaper from the 4th to the 8th. For more information, you can refer to the website of the National Election Public Opinion Review Committee, where the president's approval rating is similar to last week. Can I say that the 22% drop in approval rating has stopped?
■ Jang Sung-chul: I think it's going to stay in this state. I think it'll just go back and forth within the margin of error around 20%, but I don't think it's a positive sign that it's improved. For example, unlike other polls, it's over 20%, so I can't think that this is good. Nearly 80 percent of the people are making a negative assessment and that is quite difficult to run in state administration. It's hard and burdensome. There's no other way but to evaluate that there's no driving force for state administration, so I wonder if it means much that the downward trend has stopped a little.
◆ Shin Yul: Additionally, can I understand that the decline has stopped thanks to the president's statement press conference?
■ Jang Seong-cheol: I don't think so. Because if you look at the polls from the same real meter, 69.8% don't sympathize with the president's press conference. Nearly 70% of people think that why the president did this? Maybe he's worse than not doing press conferences. That's why it's hard to say that this stopped the downward trend. Now it's enough to fall out. Isn't it almost the end now? If the conservative right wing collapses, it could be even worse. Pity with pity Yes, if I don't make a positive evaluation of Yoon Suk Yeol's president, I don't want to side with Lee Jae-myung or be interpreted as being helpful to Lee Jae-myung, so I think those people are maintaining support to some extent.
◆ Sin Yul: What do you think?
◇ Kim Min-ha: As you said, some of the conservative voters are now, what should I say? It's a sense of crisis, and at the same time, it's a sense of disappointment about the press conference of President Yoon Suk Yeol. So, disappointment about the press conference is called
◆ Shin Yul: It's plus or minus zero.
◇ Kim Min-ha: Should I describe it as a conservative camp for about two weeks before? Opinion leaders in the conservative camp, conservative media, and now senior citizens, Yeouido senior citizens, kept talking. President Yoon Suk Yeol needs to do something at this point. In order to get out of this situation, in order to get out of these various crisis situations, we need to come up with something that can solve the problem related to Kim Gun-hee in a more public way. Regardless of whether it was an apology to the public or an attitude, he insisted on doing something, whether it was acceptable to what CEO Han Dong-hoon claimed, but there is a great disappointment about whether the result of hearing it is this or a press conference, but that's why I think that the sense of crisis was expressed at the same time worked together. Especially immediately after this press conference, for example, if the trends critical of Representative Han Dong-hoon and the so-called President of Yoon Suk Yeol within this conservative group had erupted into a bigger crack or some kind of conflict, then there might have been another drop. However, since President Yoon Suk Yeol and Yongsan are concentrated in the corner right now, representative Han Dong-hoon and some conservative media use the expression "strategic ceasefire" in some words. Rather than going into that mode, I think we should change our direction to ask for some quick action or something while sealing the conflict. So, for now, is it not that support has stopped falling? If so, the fact that support has stopped falling continues to rebound in the future. Rather than this, I think it reflects the stance of conservative voters to the extent that we will see how it goes in the future.
◆ Sinryul: In general, it has been rallied because of the crisis as we see it. But gathering also involves fatigue. We've gathered together, but if we keep on gathering and nothing changes, we'll fall into fatigue. How do you see it? If you say you're going to reshuffle your personnel next month, and you don't accompany Kim Gun-hee on an overseas trip, will this calm down?
■ Jang Sung-chul: So I think we need to look at whether it's a personnel reshuffle or just a change. When it comes to personnel reform, people who are not loyal to me, people who are critical and can speak bitterly to me, people who are a little distant from me, people who are trusted by the people, and people who the opposition party thinks are okay with that can be called personnel reform. For example, we know that it is very close to the President of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security Lee Sang-min. I've appointed him as chief of staff. Then it can't be seen as a personnel reform. So I wonder if this will help raise the public's approval rating, and for example, there has been only one former lawmaker Yoo Seung Min who has raised his voice of anti-Yoon Seok-yeol criticism. I'd like to see someone like that.
◆ Mr. Shin-yul: Member for Ahn Cheol Soo is also a bit critical.
■ Jang Seong-cheol: It's been quite a bit long. So, for example, if a former lawmaker like Yoo Seung Min is appointed to the Cabinet, the public will think that the president has really changed, but if former Minister Won Hee-ryong, former Minister of Public Administration and Security Lee Sang-min, and former Saenuri Party leader Lee Jung-hyun are appointed, will personnel reform be a scoring point?
◆ Shin Yul: It's a revolving door?
■ Jang Sung-chul: It's hard to say that it's a revolving door. I think it's getting worse. The problem with Mrs. Kim Gun-hee should never take you on a foreign trip. Just take him away and his approval rating will drop further. People aren't angry about this. Even if there are suspicions about why First Lady Kim Gun-hee is not properly investigated and investigated, why do you have public authority as president and why do you defend your wife's spouse? Isn't there a high level of anger over that? I can't see you going on a foreign trip, so I can be less angry. But it doesn't seem to be a fundamental solution. I think that in the end, showing a forward-looking attitude toward the special prosecutor is an important factor in further decline and rise in approval ratings.
◇ Kim Min-ha: I feel the same way. It is the same with the chief of staff, but when it was said that this cabinet reshuffle would be made, there was a saying that Lee Sang-min, the Minister of Public Administration and Security, would be subject to the cabinet reshuffle this time. Looking at the reports. Then, who will be in the vacancy? Today, the Dong-A Ilbo mentions former floor leader Yoon Jae-ok and others. Then, isn't Yoon Jae-ok the person who played the role of current floor leader Choo Kyung-ho when he was chairman of the emergency committee Han Dong-hoon? He is someone who should play a role that is close to President Yoon Suk Yeol. Moreover, if he was a former police officer and then the minister of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, to President Yoon Suk Yeol, people might say, "Is he also a police manager?" Hasn't this changed? Isn't it possible that some way of managing state affairs could not give this feeling? Rather than giving a feeling that it has changed in this area, some kind of leadership itself is still maintained in this way. It can give you this feeling, so if it goes in that direction, it will be difficult to say that something has been resolved. For example, there are questions about what kind of solution the people want to not go on an overseas trip, but if you say you don't go on an overseas trip, will you not go on an overseas trip until the end of your administration? You don't even know that, do you? First of all, they say yes within this year, but within this year, it's less than two months away from the end of this year, and they don't know what it is, and the media named it the so-called Kim Gun-hee Line, and now CEO Han Dong-hoon said it was the Hannam-dong Line, but what happens to those who asked Han Dong-hoon to clean up this part of their personnel appointments? For example, did you drive under the influence of alcohol? This person came back after this. When I ask what this person is going to do, he says that he will gradually organize it. So, I don't know why it takes so long to organize these people and why he is going to organize them or not. There is still a long way to go for the people to accept such changes that can be felt by the ruling party. Isn't this the only way to evaluate it?
◆ Shin Yul: I saw the breaking news on YTN about 10 minutes ago, and it seems that he issued a warrant to Myung Tae-kyun and former lawmaker Kim Young-sun. If the prosecution has requested a warrant, what do you think? Will Myung Tae-kyun's mouth be in the spotlight once again? What do you think?
■ Jang Sung-chul: I think so. If you say you've been picking on me so far, I'll reveal various things. You said that you could break the regime within a month. It's a defense that says, "Don't arrest me anymore. It could be such a threat, and if you arrest me, I'll really not stay still. You'll be in big trouble." But an arrest warrant was requested. Then, as for Myung Tae-kyun, I think he can take stronger actions to live his life. On the other hand, he might think that he will be arrested anyway, or that he should stay still without causing any controversy, but I thought at first that he wouldn't issue an arrest warrant. And even if the arrest warrant is issued, the warrant is very sloppy, so the judge said
◆ Sinryul : To reject
■ Jang Sung-chul: It's so hard to issue a warrant because there's a lot of recordings of the testimony that are being handed over to the Democratic Party and the media right now. Whether I reported Kang Hye-kyung or the drivers did it, when it was revealed and exposed, Myung Tae-kyun protested, "That's not what I meant. It's not that. It's the person's fault." It primarily served as a protective shield, but if Myung Tae-kyun enters prison, he will be almost defenseless. So I thought, even in that sense, and if something is revealed again, things could be very unfavorable to President Yoon Suk Yeol and First Lady Kim Gun-hee, so I thought, 'Wouldn't you just make a formal request for a warrant and just let me give it away or not give it away?'
◆ Sin Yul: Do you think you have something? Still
■ Jang Sung-chul: You keep saying that you have a lot. There are 400 and 4,000 of them, and they say that the government will collapse if it is released, so even if there is some bluster, it is a problem in itself if the president and the first lady are nurtured. So I'm still a little impure about the prosecution's intentions, so I think the judge will not be able to issue a warrant in the end, but you should have requested a warrant and arrested it and conducted various investigations properly. I feel a bit late.
◆ Sin Yul: Will it become the core of the nation in the future? How do you see it?
◇ Kim Min-ha: Actually, I have doubts like Director Jang Sung-chul, but I have doubts like that now, but isn't it not possible to follow those doubts? So, based on what Myung Tae-kyun actually did and what he claimed, the need for an arrest investigation that should be arrested becomes an explanation if there are concerns about escape and destruction of evidence. In that case, I don't know how to judge the fear of running away, but I've said a lot of things about the fear of destroying evidence so far. Didn't you tell the media that you would burn your cell phone or what you would do with what you buried in your father's grave? Of course, it has been confirmed that the father's grave does not exist, but that is actually a problem. Why do you say you buried your father's grave there when he doesn't have one? So all of this is an attempt to destroy evidence.
◆ Sin Yul: We don't know if there is a cemetery or not. But even if you wear makeup, there can be a cemetery.
◇ Kim Min-ha: But according to a report by No Cut News, No Cut News went to the village where Myung Tae-kyun was born and raised and asked now, and he said there was no graveyard anymore. The villagers are
◆ Sin-ryul: It could be in a permafrost.
◇ Kim Min-ha: That's right. If I tell you that much, anyway, but I don't know because I can't bury my cell phone in a corrugated hall. Whether there is a place to bury
◆ Shin Yul: When I saw the drama, they put something important in it.
◇ Kim Min-ha: So to burn it anyway, and that's actually the possibility of destroying the evidence for a long time. If so, I think the prosecution can argue the necessity of Lee Myung-tae-kyun's arrest investigation and such things, and I think this is a problem that can be persuaded by the judge. According to what we have done so far, but if the judge says, "Oh, this is not necessary for arrest," and it is dismissed, the situation becomes quite complicated, and as you said, as Director Jang said, we have no choice but to suspect various suspicions, and what Myung Tae-kyun expects so far, but whether or not the prosecution will arrest him seems to have that worldview, such as in what kind of relationship with the president of Yoon Suk Yeol, but there is a risk that it will be accepted as if there is a basis. So, I will tell you that the prosecution did its best and that the prosecution should do its best to investigate and do its best to work anyway.
■ Jang Sung-cheol: Didn't Myung Tae-kyun get some signs and impressions while being investigated by the prosecution? Don't worry. You're not going to be arrested yet. That's why they come out after being investigated by the prosecution and point fingers at journalists and shout loudly at the public. I'm really flabbergasted. It's my first time seeing it. Usually, when a suspect enters and comes out, the prosecution says,
◆ Synthesis: If you have been investigated
■ Jang Seong-cheol: I made a point of explanation. I'll be waiting for many things. It's right to do it like this, but you point your finger at it. Professor Shin Yul asks me a lot of questions. YTN always comes here. Do you know how much YTN is? How can you ask questions when you don't know? You change the situation with things that don't make sense to me and show your excitement. I also think that it shows some loyalty of the government or First Lady Kim Gun-hee. It's not my fault. It's all JTBC's fault. It's the reporters' fault. I thought it was a performance to show that I didn't say that.
◇ Kim Min-ha: In fact, his legal defense logic is all included in his remarks that are so angry. If you listen carefully to what you just said, at the end of what Myung Tae-kyun claims, Kang Hye-kyung got a hint of an argument because of media reports, and Kang Hye-kyung is reproducing the claim. That's what I'm talking about. In other words, he made the claim based on media reports when he said Kang Hye-kyung's claim was false, and he does not deny his relationship with President Yoon Suk Yeol or First Lady Kim Gun-hee itself, but Myung Tae-kyun said, "But rather than pushing through Kim Young-sun's nomination, I just recommended her." Don't you think so? So it's argued that this is an act that is not legally a problem, but strangely, President Yoon Suk Yeol said something similar at the press conference. I can recommend it. So, the fact that the president recommended several people to the talent recruitment committee during the last general election is related to that, so I think a little bit. In other words, the president of Yoon Suk Yeol also recommended it, so can't I recommend something? There's also a feeling that sounds like this defense. So I think he's just insisting on his own defense strategy. However, if I live in such a country as I briefly suspected Maj. Gen. Jang Sung-chul and I, it would be much easier for the power to arrest Myung Tae-kyun and deal with the case if we talk about it with a premise far from the reality that the president or the prosecution is living in a country where they just cut and play with the case. But this is an area of imagination and it shouldn't be like that in reality. That's why I keep emphasizing it.
◆ Shin Yul: It's a little different, but what is the big event this week? How do you expect the first trial ruling against CEO Lee Jae-myung? Director Jang
■ Jang Sung-cheol: When I asked the legal professionals, wouldn't there be a fine of about 1.5 million won to 2 million won?
◆ Sinryul: 200 is cut from the second trial. But isn't there a possibility that the nullification of the election will be maintained?
■ Jang Sung-chul: I know. Many people say that if the second trial goes to the second trial, it will be reduced to about 900,000 won, but Joo Jin-woo, a lawmaker of People's Power, will be sentenced to about a year in prison.
◆ Shinryul: Of course, on the premise of probation
■ Jang Sung-chul: He said that, but I wonder if he will be sentenced to prison or fined for that, but I don't remember anything about Kim Moon-ki. Even the president says he doesn't remember many things. I don't think I can say anything about it.
◆ Sin Yul: But now what people are paying attention to is the Ministry of Environment? That comment means that it's a dereliction of duty or something. I'm paying attention to this now.
■ Jang Sung-chul: I think that's the problem.
◆ So how do you watch it? Result
◇ Kim Min-ha: I'm a person with legal expertise
◆ Sin Yul: There's nothing here. a person with legal expertise
◇ Kim Min-ha: In particular, I don't know about the requirements because we have to discuss the details of Chairman Lee Jae-myung's perception together, but as you just said, I think the general expectation is that the ruling is likely to come out anyway in a very ambiguous line on the question of whether you can maintain your qualifications as a presidential candidate. With those expectations, I think that's what I'm going to be like now.
◆ Sin-ryul: One more thing that comes out like that. How will the political situation turn out in the future if we assume that this is the family?
■ Jang Seong-cheol: I don't think this is enough. If you are sentenced to prison on the 25th in connection with the perjury teacher charge, this will have a greater synergy effect. In the end, if it goes wrong, Lee Jae-myung, the only presidential candidate of the progressive Democratic Party, may not be able to run for president in 2027. It seems that the biggest risk for Lee Jae-myung is that such a plan B should be prepared within the progressive camp. Also, if you look at the last election of Gokseong-gun or Yeonggwang-gun, the Democratic Party of Korea won more votes than the Democratic Party won. If so, I think it's a big deal in Honam, the Democratic Party's stronghold, and let's find someone else with our spare. I think that's the biggest risk. When such a move takes place
◇ Kim Min-ha: It's a matter that can be judged only when we go there, but wouldn't the situation become clear if the result comes out that Lee Jae-myung has become more politically dangerous? However, as you said, even if such a result comes out, there is no room for representative Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party to make other choices now. We have no choice but to keep going. In that case, representative Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party of Korea, the power of the people and representative Han Dong-hoon, the way to survive is to continue to unite and gather the trust of the conservative voters. Don't we have no choice but to unite in the way we lean on this? Both sides will keep going like that. However, I think the process of creating a frustrating and difficult political situation on their own will continue as both sides wind up like that. Rather, it is a weakness, so who gets out of that weakness faster can be the way to become the winner. I'm telling you that again.
◆ Shin Yul: I see. Let's stop here today.
◇ Kim Min-ha, ■ Jang Sung-chul: Thank you.
◆ Shin Yul: So far, we have been with Jang Sung-chul, director of the Public Opinion Center, and Kim Min-ha, two current affairs critics.
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