[New Square 10] North Korea "Ready to fire forward"...What about the possibility of armed provocation?

■ Host: Anchor Na Kyung-chul and Anchor Um Ji-min
■ Starring: Lim Eul-chul, Professor of the Institute for Far East Studies at Kyungnam University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea has ordered troops near the border to be fully prepared to fire because of the appearance of a drone in the South over Pyongyang. Let's find out what North Korea's intention is to raise the level of threat every day. I am with Professor Eul-chul who is the Institute of Far East Studies at Kyungnam University. Welcome.

[Anchor]
North Korea has ordered troops near the border to be fully prepared for firing. What does this mean?

[Leave]
I think we need to move on from the issue of leaflet distribution by our private organization. North Korea has consistently warned our government or civilian organizations. North Korea has been closely watching various means such as leaflets and psychological warfare, and in the meantime, drones have penetrated into the sky over Pyongyang. Therefore, from the standpoint of North Korea, we are in a situation where we can no longer endure. So they've warned us in words so far, but if we send drones back, or if we send various balloons that North Korean defector groups have been sending to North Korea, we can send these foreign substances to North Korea. I will now respond firmly to that through artillery fire. It's like this.
So the message now will not stand still if North Korea sends a drone from the South once more. Then, I will make sure to hit them with the artillery fire they are preparing. I think we should interpret it as sending this message first.

[Anchor]
So, as you said, Vice Minister Kim Yo-jung and the spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense released a late-night statement last night, and they said that. If a drone appears once again, we will consider it a declaration of war and act according to our judgment, so what actions can we expect?

[Leave]
First of all, when our military broadcasted the loudspeaker in the front area in the past, it hit the loudspeaker. Don't test our patience even if the North keeps sending continuous messages now when it actually fired artillery shells. Even though we keep warning each other repeatedly, if we invade Pyongyang again through drones, they will respond to it by force now. However, what North Korea keeps saying and our side is concerned about is that it can be a catalyst that can lead to one bigger military conflict, not just exploding drones and balloons. That's very worrisome, but I think we're reading a lot of our intentions in North Korea. So, we must now show the Yoon Suk Yeol government, which continues to test its patience, through military action, not words. It seems that you have made this decision now.

So, in my view, considering the size of the North Korean artillery brigade deployed in the front and the equipment they have, we should not just dismiss it as bluff. There can be enough actual damage, there can be a gunfight. And one of the points we should not miss here is that North Korea should not consistently send fliers now, after all. But we have to pay attention to the contents of the flyer. In North Korea, Kim Jong-un is sometimes called the most dignified and in a way, the most sacred person, and a flyer that continues to damage the image of this person is distributed to North Korea, and this time, a flyer that can damage the image of the top North Korean leadership through drones is distributed over Pyongyang, so North Korea needs to prevent it even at the risk of war.

If we fail to prevent this, it could eventually deal a decisive blow to Kim Jong-un's prestige and dignity. It could be a more powerful blow to the North Korean system than to lose the war. So, if we understand the nature of the North Korean system at all, whether it is appropriate for our government to approach it in this way is a very skeptical position as a professional.

[Anchor]
The South Korean military's response to North Korea's claim that South Korean drones penetrated over Pyongyang is unclear. So, at first, it changed from the position that it had never been sent to the position that it could not be confirmed. How did you see this change in position?

[Leave]
First of all, the South Korean government seems to judge that maintaining strategic ambiguity is a strategy that does not get caught up in North Korea's intentions. But the Korean government's response is not a very consistent message, but there is a message that goes back and forth. I think our government may have already expected such a response from North Korea. And in a way, one of the South Korean government's North Korea policies could eventually remove Chairman Kim Jong-un. When talking about the end of the regime, the majority of North Koreans are not our enemies after all, but North Korea's supreme leadership, or Kim Jong-un, is our enemy. Our goal is to get rid of this person, and we're talking openly like this. What kind of response can North Korea take if it accepts it? We can only expect that. For North Korea, it is a concern that there is an atmosphere in which it has no choice but to respond very roughly with a life-or-death decision. So, I understand the position of our government to some extent, but in fact, at the root of the current security crisis is a flyer.

So, from the perspective of North Korea, the South Korean government should be more active in preventing private organizations from spraying flyers to North Korea. Until this morning, the message from Kim Jong-un and the North Korean Ministry of National Defense was very aggressive in attacking our government, but they are still sending messages to prevent a recurrence. How do we read these parts? I think it's an important time not to make even minor mistakes. So we need to respond effectively to this. I just want to raise the question of whether this kind of response is appropriate, saying, "If North Korea hurts the safety of our people and if we take military action again, we will make sure that the regime ends."

[Anchor]
Since the reality of the drone has not yet been confirmed, various interpretations come out. First of all, North Korea claims that it was sent by the South, but some say it is a self-made play within the North. Or maybe it's the work of a dissident group, there's also an analysis like this, so how do you analyze it?

[Leave]
For now, I think we should open up all possibilities and see them. We should open up all possibilities sent by our private organizations or third-party entities from the self-written drama. The reason is that if you look at the way various classes and organizations respond to North Korea now, there are many private organizations in North Korea who agree that information should be introduced into North Korea to induce change within North Korea in some way. The same goes for overseas. In that context, we may have an organization now that wants to bring information by any means. In that sense, the most effective strategy is to spray it anywhere you want through a drone.

So, I don't have any basis, but considering the current government's policy toward North Korea, the attitude of many organizations, including human rights groups, toward North Korea, and the way they work while longing for change in North Korea, we should open up all possibilities. For example, we can once again suspect a self-written play. We need to open up all possibilities, but collecting and analyzing drones that North Korea sent from the South now, evaluating them in their own way, and disclosing them can give us the justification or persuasion of their arguments. But now, we are only showing pictures taken in the middle of the night, but we are not showing the actual drone itself right now. So we'll have to wait and see for a little bit more of these things, so the reason I keep saying that I'm concerned is that there are things coming and going that could be a trigger that could lead to a bigger conflict between the two Koreas. So, such as unmanned aerial vehicles and garbage balloons that North Korea continues to send, GPS disturbances, and all these things are a little different from the past. It is different from the way North Korea used to make provocations. With this in mind, I'm arguing that we should be fully prepared.

[Anchor]
In addition, North Korea has also revealed its alleged invasion of drones to the people. It was released through the Rodong Sinmun, but in the past, we did not deliver garbage balloons or our propaganda leaflets to the residents. What do you think is the reason for disclosing this?

[Leave]
Now, the North Korean regime is seen as staging various protests that condemn South Korea's reckless actions, unite the people, and pressure the South in a more mass mobilization way. And as you know well, North Korea is now the most hostile warring relationship between the two Koreas, we are at war. I'm continuing to propagandize in this way, and I don't know whether I've revised the constitution or not, but I vowed to do it. So, there is definitely that aspect of justifying the logic that Chairman Kim Jong-un has continued to do only by promoting a sense of hostility toward the South as much as possible. But when I've been studying North Korea for a long time, ordinary North Koreans don't know whether it's an air defense system or what it means, honestly. From our point of view, we looked at it more analytically, saying, "The air defense network has been opened," and "The loophole in North Korea has really been revealed," and we evaluate it like this. By the way, would ordinary North Koreans and elites really evaluate our air defense network by looking at the front page of the Rodong Sinmun? I don't think so. So, these people say that the North Korean regime's first goal is to raise the sense of hostility toward the South to the highest level, and that they are using the atmosphere to revise the constitution and continue to cut off the South, but there is an aspect of securing legitimacy for that.

[Anchor]
Breaking news just came in. I'll give you a breaking news first. We just heard that the South Korean military has detected circumstantial evidence that the North Korean military is preparing to detonate on the East Sea and Gyeongui lines today. The Joint Chiefs of Staff is likely to carry out demonstrative explosions or small provocations on the Gyeongui and Donghae lines. And he said he was preparing for this. Accordingly, the military is preparing measures related to the safety of our soldiers. Earlier, since late last year, North Korea has been working to block landmines connecting the two Koreas, including landmines on the East Sea and Gyeongui lines, and on the 9th, it announced that it would completely cut off and fortify the two Koreas in the name of the General Staff. In addition, as we just talked about, our drone has recently penetrated the sky of Pyongyang and sprayed propaganda leaflets against North Korea, raising the level of tension every day. We just received a breaking news that our military has detected the situation in which the North Korean military is preparing to detonate on the East Sea and Gyeongui lines today. What do you think about this?

[Leave]
I think it's a move that North Korea has already announced. In that context, follow-up measures are rapidly progressing because they have already vowed to thoroughly separate and disconnect all railways and roads connecting the two Koreas. That's why I keep telling you that North Korea should keep the possibility open and prepare for any military action to maintain its supreme dignity and maintain the system, even though we are clearly seeing a situation that is fundamentally different from the past inter-Korean relations. And if you look at what these people are doing right now, they don't really stop talking. They will show us not only by words but by actions. I'm implementing it with my own principles. You have to look at it in that context. The question now is, how about continuing to sever inter-Korean relations, raising a sense of hostility toward the South, and what is the final outcome of such measures? You have to look at that, too. But in my view, North Korea is now preparing for war. We're preparing for war. Because there is no possibility that what they are asking for will be accepted at all, and our government will openly remove Kim Jong-un. It's coming out in this way, so this is beyond the level of the river and the river, and military provocation clashes can happen in a way that we haven't expected so far. I think we should do that and be fully prepared.

[Anchor]
Professor, you have repeatedly told me that North Korea is acting on its words, and we have caught the situation that we are preparing to detonate on the East Sea and Gyeongui lines with breaking news a little while ago, but the government said that Kim Jong-un, who has a lot to lose, will not be able to start a war.

[Leave]
This analysis is partially correct. Because in the past, there was nothing to lose in the Kim Jong-il era. We need to know what we have to lose, but if we don't maintain the system anyway, this is the part where they can lose the most. And so far, Chairman Kim Jong-un has been building a lot over the years and over the past decade to build the economy or improve people's livelihoods. So the truth is, we've made every effort to look good to all these people, or to show that we're a normal country in the international community. But if you go to war, you can lose all of this overnight. That's true. However, as I mentioned earlier, North Korea, for example, gave in to the pressure of South Korea. Then, it will deal a huge blow to the prestige and dignity of the supreme leader. So I think the things we press for are meaningful to a certain extent. However, North Korea may lose the war one day and lose the system, but first of all, we need to protect Kim Jong-un.

Everything is equipped with such a system. Considering the characteristics of this system, what should we prepare for now? How should we deal with North Korea? In that sense, a strategic approach is needed. North Korea will lose the war one day. Ultimately, we can't beat the ROK-U.S. forces. However, the immediate decline of Kim Jong Un's prestige is also a bigger threat to the North Korean regime. So I also see that the North Korean system is not a sustainable system. However, in reality, about North Korea coming out like this, do we really have the capacity to make North Korea give in while risking war? Whether there is such a national consensus or an agreement between the ruling and opposition parties. There are many things we need to think about in this area. That's how I want to talk.

[Anchor]
You said that North Korea can react very sensitively to the decline in the North Korean regime's prestige, but there are many analyses on the North Korean leaflets released by North Korea. About this content, it's going back right now. What did you think about this?

[Leave]
In the end, I think that's one measure to separate the North Korean leadership from the general population of North Korea. In the end, ordinary residents can't eat three meals a day like this, but the top leadership is dressed up splendidly, and they are wasting military expenses without paying attention to the lives of the residents. Money that will truly be used for North Koreans is also being diverted like that. I think it's a propaganda content to highlight it more. This is not recent, and we are continuously taking steps to separate the North Korean leadership from the people, and it has not been verified how much these actions can change the inside of North Korea and change the minds of North Koreans. It is not being verified, but as I tell you earlier, considering the current government's North Korea policy or unification policy stance, there is a very high possibility that such attempts will continue.

There will continue to be such attempts to separate the North Korean leadership from the North Koreans, but I do not oppose the influx of information into North Korea. But a more wise way, a more strategic way. I think it is also necessary to think about whether there is a way to bring information into North Korea in a safer way, not in this way that makes the two Koreas collide militarily. So, in my view, North Korea keeps asking us to come up with measures to prevent a recurrence if you really don't want a war. Give it to me. So the first step is to send a message to a private organization to stop sending flyers to North Korea or flying drones first. We need to comprehensively consider how we interpret this message and how to use diplomacy and deterrence to prevent war. I'm just going to give in to the riverside, this kind of approach is too risky, I think we should consider that aspect.

[Anchor]
I talked with Professor Lim Eul-chul about the relationship between the two Koreas and the trend in North Korea, where the situation of the Gangdaegang continues.
Thank you for talking today.