Hong Ik-pyo said, "Kim Dong-yeon seems to be willing to challenge for the next presidential election.It looks like we're preparing for a possible response."

◆ [YTN Radio SHINYUL's news]
■ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (17:00-19:00)

■ Air date: October 24, 2024 (Thursday)
■ Proceedings: Shin Yul, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University
■ Talk: Hong Ik-pyo, former floor leader of the Democratic Party of Korea

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

- Introduction of a Special Inspector in South Korea? Lee Jae-myung is unlikely to respond...It's not a reflection of the 野's demand.

- It's not easy to predict the departure vote of the 'Kim Gun-hee Special Prosecutor Act'..Changes in public opinion are likely to affect mid-November
- Low approval rating of the Democratic Party of Korea, alternative measures for people's lives should be prepared in parallel with political struggle
- The stage of demanding preemptive measures for Yongsan, such as the outside struggle of the 野, the acceptance of special prosecutors rather than the goal of impeachment
- 野, re-election is the most important thing.It's a plan for the Democratic Party to regain power, not a plan for Lee Jae-myung to regain power.
- Han Ki-ho-Shin Won-style text, something outside of common sense.No one-dimensional response to the North Korean troop dispatch issue.

◆ Shin Yul: Shin Yul's news head-to-head match begins part 4. Hong Ik-pyo, former floor leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, will meet in today's front-facing interview for the fourth part. I'm on the phone right now. Hello, CEO Hong.

◇ Hongik Pyo: Yes, hello.

◆ Shin Yul: Yes. Do you have time these days?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Yes. I have a little more time than when I was an active member of the National Assembly. I go to school and write a bit, so I don't have much time.

◆ Shin Yul: You're going to school. Also, if our listeners go to school, they may think that they are studying, but CEO Hong Ik-pyo was at the Institute for International Economic Policy. He's a doctor of policy. So, of course, there's no reason to go to school again. That's right.

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Yes.

◆ Shin Yul: First of all, the special inspector is not important in the Democratic Party right now, but the special inspector should receive an independent counsel. I think they're saying this. How do you see it?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: That's right. Isn't there a number of suspicions related to Mrs. Kim Gun-hee that the Special Inspector General is currently in question? Regarding the suspicion of Kim Gun-hee, the special inspection team is not an organization that can investigate the past or clarify the past, so it is an independent investigation now, and the special inspector may need it separately to prevent future events, but I don't think it reflects the current public's demands or the opposition's demands at all.

◆ Shin Yul: But what do you think is the reason why CEO Han Dong-hoon mentioned the special inspector?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Maybe it's a desperate measure. In my opinion. From Han Dong-hoon's point of view, as the party leader, he must have heard public sentiment while traveling to various sites, and he must have felt a lot of public criticism about the party's approval rating or the government, the ruling party, and the president. Of course, President Yoon Suk Yeol will not be able to receive any special prosecution requests, and he said he would find an intermediate solution in his own way, so I think he brought the card without being able to establish a special inspector system. But now, even that is rejected by President Yoon Suk Yeol, and representative Han Dong-hoon's actions are now twisted.

◆ Sin-ryul: But now the president of Yoon Suk Yeol is the presidential office. The Office of the President will listen to the voices of the people with a strict understanding of the situation, as the Gallup Korea poll I mentioned earlier has a 20% approval rating. Do you think it's going to change a little when you said that?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: I don't know. Didn't the president already make a firm statement to Han Dong-hoon, the last representative? I don't know because he said that the special inspector's issue is handled together with the North Korean Human Rights Foundation, and he made it clear that he has no intention of accepting it because there are unconstitutional factors related to the special prosecutor Kim Gun-hee. If public opinion continues to deteriorate, the presidential office, the president of Yoon Suk Yeol, and the government and the ruling party will have a lot of concerns, but I don't think there is a high possibility that any position will change right now.

◆ [Voiceover] Just in case. Isn't there a report that there will be a bilateral meeting between Lee Jae-myung and Han Dong-hoon early next week? I think we will meet anyway, but let's not combine the issue of recommending directors of the North Korean Human Rights Foundation with the issue of recommending special inspectors. Let's start with the special inspector, so how can the Democratic Party come out more forward-looking? How do you see it?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: I think it is necessary to finalize the composition of the board of directors on the issue of the North Korean Human Rights Foundation. It's not a big deal whether it's a special inspection team or a human rights foundation issue, but the opposition party's position is probably that there's no reason to receive the card if Lee Jae-myung comes out with the card in question of the special inspector without receiving an independent counsel.

◆ Shin Yul: So you think there's no reason to get it if you bring out the card special inspector.

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Whether it is linked to the human rights foundation issue or not

◆ Sin Yul: That is not the point.

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Because as I said earlier, what the current national demand or opposition party demands is not to appoint a special inspector for the special inspector system. Currently, it is not likely that Representative Lee Jae-myung will respond to it and agree on it because he brought a different answer instead of the key now, including Mrs. Kim Gun-hee's Deutsche Motors.

◆ Sin Yul: I see. On November 14th or 15th, it seems that Mrs. Kim Gun-hee's Special Prosecutor Act is being re-posted. Right?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: About 14 days. 13th or 14th

◆ Sin Yul: That's about it. I'm sorry, but there are many people who are not interested in the special prosecution law because it has been posted so many times. However, what the general public is interested in is that the president will now exercise his veto power, and if this is transferred again, whether there will be a leave vote when the re-decision is made at that time is now a concern. What do you think?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: I don't know. The problem doesn't seem easy for me to predict at the moment. If the plenary session passes on the 14th and the president vetoes it and returns, it will be possible at the earliest on November 28th and 30th. Re-decision. Then, don't you still have about a month left? Then, considering the trend of public opinion for about a month, the position of representative Han Dong-hoon, and various complicated situations within the ruling party, I think we can determine whether or not public opinion changes will pass between mid-November and 20 days after the 14th.

◆ Shin Yul: What are the issues that could affect public opinion change in the meantime?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: First of all, a political party is bound to be sensitive to changes in approval ratings. The first thing to do is how the president's approval rating and the ruling party's approval rating move, and secondly, isn't there a number of additional problems that are being revealed now, including Myung Tae-kyun? It's not directly related to Deutsche Motors, but if these additional suspicions continue to spread and the controversy grows, I think the internal voice of the ruling party will grow, saying that it has no choice but to do something about it. I think we should consider such situations comprehensively. In addition, although it is Han Dong-hoon's wish, I think Han Dong-hoon and the government's ruling party will probably think about various judicial issues surrounding the ruling party and the opposition party.

◆ Shin Yul: Speaking of the change in approval rating, I'm asking you a bit, but from October 22nd to 24th, Gallup Korea conducted its own telephone interview poll of 1,001 people aged 18 or older nationwide. For more information, if you look at the National Election Public Opinion Review Committee's website, the public's approval rating has risen now. The president's approval rating has fallen to 20 percent compared to last week, but the public's approval rating has risen. First of all, what do you think is the reason?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: I don't know. I think the 30% approval rating is some kind of support that any government or ruling party can do. In my opinion. However, if the president's approval rating continues to decline, the ruling camp already knows that it cannot win the election with that approval rating. Therefore, there will be various by-elections next year, and considering local elections in the next year, it will not be easy for the ruling party to win the election results with any opposition party if this situation continues. In that respect, of course, about 30% of the approval rating is okay. I don't know what kind of judgment there will be in it, but if it is okay, let's keep it to the rejection side. Let's reject the re-decision due to the exercise of the veto.

◆ Shin Yul: But now the opposition Democratic Party's approval rating is 30. But I'm curious about the same thing. If the president's approval rating has fallen to 20, shouldn't he take the benefit of 20%? Many people say that the Democratic Party of Korea should take advantage of that. How do you see that?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: There are a lot of comments like that. Gallup research, another interview interview, and then the phone ARS method is a little more active among supporters. Then the Gallup Survey moves quite slowly. In my opinion, if the ruling party's approval rating in the actual Gallup survey is reflected in suspicions related to First Lady Kim Gun-hee, it will take a month or two from now, so it is likely to be reflected in the polls a little more by the end of November or early December. Since we have to take that into account, the current approval rating situation is in a state of stagnation, and as the opposition party said, the Democratic Party of Korea also has some concerns because the public's public sentiment that has left the ruling party is not coming to the Democratic Party. So, the leadership of the Democratic Party and various active lawmakers should think about how to gather the hearts of the people together on this issue. In parallel with the political struggle, the lives of the people are very difficult, so I think it is necessary to make efforts to come up with more delicate and practical alternatives related to such issues of people's livelihood. I understand that representative Lee Jae-myung is also preparing and reorganizing the so-called muksanism or various internal organizations related to people's lives.

◆ Shin Yul: You said it's in parallel with the political struggle, but is CEO Hong also going to the streets in that long padded coat?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: I don't know. Do you want to go out every time? The party will probably do it every other week on Saturday, so I'll have to work and do that while doing that.

◆ Shin Yul: But the truth is, some people say that this is the beginning of the impeachment drive, what do you think?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: I think impeachment is basically the power of the opposition because of the structure of the seat, right? After all, impeachment is possible when some members of the ruling party, for example, decide separately, or later the president or various suspicions related to the president become more specific, so the opposition parties aim to impeach him just because they are engaged in an off-the-shelf struggle. Of course, some opposition parties argue, but Chairman Lee Jae-myung is not actually talking about impeachment from the official standpoint of any party, is he? I hope Representative Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party of Korea consider those things. I think the current situation is that the president listens to the public and calls for such proactive measures as accepting the special prosecution demanded by the opposition party and the public, or overhauling the Cabinet of personnel reform before such a president is impeached.

◆ Shin Yul: But now, in fact, some people will have a first trial ruling on CEO Lee Jae-myung on November 15th and 25th, right? The intensity of the current Democratic Party's off-the-shelf struggle will be determined in conjunction with the first trial ruling. There are a lot of comments like this, and there are a lot of people who are actually worried. What do you think?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Of course, our party's overall thinking is reasonably judged by the judiciary on that issue, and we judge that the issue will be revealed well. However, if such an unexpected conclusion is reached, it is predicted to some extent that it will be a considerable struggle against the regime or the intensity of any resistance within the party.

◆ Sin Yul: The strength of the resistance is increasing and on the other hand, am I today? Looking at the article, there was an article that Governor Kim Dong-hyun of Gyeonggi-do Province continues to recruit people from the side of friendship and screaming to Gyeonggi-do Province. This seems unusual in timing, how do you judge it?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Governor of Gyeonggi-do Province Kim Dong-yeon seems to have some intention to challenge the next presidential election. As a result, it seems that some people within the party are gathering to match Lee Jae-myung, but I don't think that's because Lee Jae-myung wants or expects something wrong. There are more than two years left for the presidential election, but I think they are preparing for various possibilities by looking a little further and preparing for the presidential race in two years.

◆ Shin Yul: But isn't Chairman Lee Jae-myung working on the ruling plan task force or something right now? That's right.

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Yes, there's a little misunderstanding about that. The most important thing for the opposition is to take back power.
◆ Shin Yul: That's right. Sure. Yes

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: In that respect, that is the Democratic Party's plan to regain power, not for a specific individual, representative Lee Jae-myung. So, of course, I think that the Democratic Party of Korea is preparing for the presidential election in advance because it has to have some power and policy ability as the ruling party responsible for the next two years as the party leader. Perhaps in my last presidential experience, I did not make full use of the party Democratic Party. As a candidate, it seems that the leader's judgment to lay the groundwork for early preparation for the party's presidential election was at play.

◆ Shin Yul: Regardless of the fact that Hong was the floor leader of the overwhelming majority of the first party in the floor, and he belongs to the party there, from an academic standpoint, what do you think is the probability that the Democratic Party will take power?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: That is difficult to judge now. As you know well, if you look at one barometer, for example, the United States. And hasn't Korea's presidential election two and a half years ago also been decided to be 0.7 percent?

◆ [Voiceover] Yeah, that's right. So

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: The characteristic of countries that have recently run the presidential system is that elections are held in a state of extreme social polarization and political polarization, so usually both camps unite. The characteristic of the presidential election is that the victory or defeat is decided by a slight difference, so for the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party won the last general election and the local elections are expected to be more favorable to the Democratic Party, but the presidential election in two and a half years is without the president of Yoon Suk Yeol. In that respect, I don't think it will be easy for the Democratic Party to be optimistic that the people will unconditionally give the Democratic Party a political power. I think the Democratic Party of Korea will nevertheless decide whether to bring power in a difficult game only if it prepares well and reads the public sentiment well.

◆ Shin Yul: I want to ask you one more question. You know the text that Han Ki-ho, a member of the People's Power, sent to Shin Won-sik, head of the National Security Office, yesterday? How do you see the strike of North Korean soldiers sent to Ukraine?

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: It's not feasible, and in my view, one former general is a member of the National Defense Commission and one is the head of the security office, and it's a little out of common sense for these people to talk about it like that. And they are in a position to seriously consider the tension on the Korean Peninsula or various crises that may arise, but I think they are taking this issue too lightly. Of course, this issue is clearly a serious security crisis in North Korea, and it is true that North Korea has caused a very serious international problem, but I think that the response to this issue should not be too one-dimensional.

◆ Sin Yul: Anyway, I think the situation on the Korean Peninsula is getting very serious right now. Yes, it is. This dispatch means that it's a mercenary, that the North Korean military is in Ukraine anyway. It's very important that the North Korean military is in Russia. I need to show some rational diplomacy to balance it well, but I'm also a little worried about that.

◇ Hong Ik-pyo: Aren't the people more reluctant to dispatch troops or provide weapons? If you look at the polls. So I think the government needs to understand the will of the people better.

◆ Shin Yul: Thank you for your words today. Thank you.

◇ Hong Ik Pyo: Yes. Thank you.

◆ Shin Yul: So far, I was Hong Ik-pyo, the former floor leader of the Democratic Party.