[Issue Plus] North Korea launches high-angle ICBM...Kim Jong-un said, "I will never change my nuclear capability."

■ Host: Lee Yeo-jin, anchor Jang Won-seok
■ Starring: Lim Eul-chul, professor at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far East Studies

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News PLUS] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Today, five days before the U.S. presidential election, North Korea launched intercontinental ballistic missiles and ICBMs into the East Sea.

[Anchor]
Immediately after the provocation, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un left an unusual message, emphasizing that he would never change the line of strengthening force. Let's take a look at the related contents with Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University's Far East Research Institute. Welcome.

[Anchor]
Although North Korea has been constantly provoking in recent years, isn't this the first intercontinental ballistic missile this year since December last year? Why did you launch it at this point, five days before the U.S. presidential election?

[Import]
First of all, North Korea's message to the U.S. is very clear. Regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, so no matter who becomes the next U.S. president, there will be no change in our nuclear armament policy. So, for example, even if former President Trump is re-elected, we basically stick to a strong nuclear force policy. You can negotiate or talk on that basis.

It was an event that clearly imprinted this message five days before the U.S. presidential election, and I think we should analyze it like this.

[Anchor]
The two U.S. candidates did not seem to be very interested in North Korea. So, should we say that North Korea intends to draw attention and thus increase its negotiating power?

[Import]
First of all, that stage has already passed. There has already been enough attention, and in a way, we have negotiated with former President Trump on North Korea's nuclear issue several times, haven't we? So, since we are fully aware of each other's intentions for each other, the goal is not to draw attention by developing and showing off these new ICBMs again, but as I said earlier, for example, North Korea seems to think that former President Trump is likely to be re-elected now.

So, even if President Trump becomes president again, he has to prepare for negotiations with North Korea, which is different from the past. Therefore, the policy of strengthening nuclear force, which has been maintained so far as a nuclear power, will never change. This message was clearly shown again through the launch of the new ICBM. That's how you look at it.

So, assuming that President Trump is re-elected, for example, he has no choice but to come out to solve the nuclear problem more actively than now. At that stage, the advancement of North Korea's nuclear armament could be an important basis for increasing the bargaining power. However, North Korea's position does not change its hostile policy toward itself no matter who becomes the next president now. The essence of the United States does not change.

So the best we can do right now is to continue to overwhelm the United States and strengthen deterrence while showing a stronger nuclear force. That's why North Korea says it's a strategic nuclear deterrent. strategic nuclear deterrent Strategic nuclear deterrence is a situation in which we continue to send messages like this, saying that we will have the overwhelming deterrence to respond sufficiently to any military or nuclear threat that threatens us, and that we are showing it by action and not by words.

[Anchor]
The professor said that North Korea seems to be highly likely to re-elect Trump, but some analysts say this. Since it is a very close race, some analysts say that the ICBM was launched to influence Trump in order to support him or to favor him.

[Import]
I don't agree with that analysis, but basically, as you know, American voters are not focused on North Korea's provocations, but more on the Israeli Middle East war. Of course, the Russia-Ukraine war and the dispatch of North Korean soldiers, all of which are complicatedly influenced by diplomatic issues, but they cannot have a decisive impact. Isn't the U.S. domestic issue much bigger?

So, for example, if North Korea conducts a provocation such as a nuclear test, I think it could be an event that American voters would be more interested in. However, the ICBM has been test-fired by North Korea, and this time, it has been test-fired an ICBM with a more powerful power, so I would like to question whether this can become an issue. However, former President Trump will say so.

After all, I am the only one who can solve this problem against such North Korea. I think there is a very high possibility that such a comment will come out. But I'm saying how much it will move the votes of American voters, and I'm a little skeptical about that.

[Anchor]
The international community is paying attention to the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia. The UN is also continuing to debate this issue. And now the South Korean defense minister is in the United States. The Joint Security Council statement has been released, but does it seem that you don't care at all about UN sanctions or anything like that?

[Import]
That's the situation right now. In fact, if you look at the circumstances of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, you can see that international sanctions on North Korea are almost not in mind. In fact, I think the new ICBM launched by North Korea today is a well-prepared and planned provocation. We already introduced a new mobile launch vehicle last September, called TEL. But many military experts already predicted it then.

Because it's a new launch vehicle that hasn't been seen before, and this is the so-called 12-axis wheel. So if you add left and right wheels together, there are 12 and 12 wheels together, there are 24 wheels. If you look at this, in the end, if it's a new launch vehicle like this, the missiles to be installed here will inevitably be different. So, I expected that a new ICBM would appear, but it was tested very quickly.

[Anchor]
What exactly does it mean that the number of wheels on the TEL has increased? Range or warhead weight. [Lim] At the 8th party congress held in 2021, Chairman Kim Jong-un presented a number of strategic defense goals, one of which is the development of super-large warheads. So, this super-large warhead will be carried that heavy to a faraway place to maximize explosive power.

For example, it contains the intention of flying this heavy warhead and firing it at the mainland of the United States to avoid the U.S. interception network. So the large launch vehicle means that the missile launch system and the heavier launch system can be operated. So the core of the new missile launch system is like a new engine.

And the weight of the warhead that I just mentioned, this becomes much heavier. The new launch pad will be the basis for launching this heavy object, and one more thing we should note is that it showed off its ability to fly this heavy warhead even further.

I showed it off, but then does this warhead have only one projectile or only one warhead? That's not it. So, as many experts say, it is very likely that it contains multiple warheads.
is not about one to three shots, but at least about 10 shots containing multiple warheads. So in the end, the goal is to re-enter, but if this happens, the United States cannot prevent this. Therefore, if this level of completion is shown, strategic deterrence is eventually completed. It means that you can evaluate it like this.

In that context, it is called a new launch vehicle, so-called TEL. This appeared and a new ICBM was launched here to show off some of its capabilities. What this means is that it has the technology and ability to fly a high-weight warhead that is completely different from before to the mainland of the United States. Therefore, from the perspective of the United States, we face much stronger ICBM capabilities than before. So this is the kind of thing that eventually shows the United States of strategic nuclear deterrence.

[Anchor]
Then, what do you think is the possibility that North Korea has accepted Russian technology while launching ICBMs this time?

[Import]
I think there are quite a few. Of course, North Korea's missile improvement level was very fast before. We continued to show new and improved missiles in a very short period of time. In fact, I expect more details of the new ICBM technology launched today will come out tomorrow morning. This is also a very high-tech technology.

Since it is a compressed new missile with technologies that ordinary countries dare not develop and test-fire, Chairman Kim Jong-un has already shown interest in these technologies when he launched the Vostocini Space Station in Russia in September last year, and in order to transfer these technologies, a large number of soldiers are now dispatched, and many counter-benefits must have been discussed in the process.

There have been considerable in-depth discussions since September last year, and it is possible that I have already been transferred to a large part of the high-tech military technology that North Korea wants, such as military reconnaissance satellites and new ICBM technologies. I think we should look at it from this perspective.

[Anchor]
The ICBM launched today was the longest ever, flying 86 minutes and the highest ever, with an altitude of more than 7,000 kilometers. It is analyzed that the range has increased that much. In fact, the existing Hwasong-18 alone has a range of more than 15,000 kilometers, so isn't the entire United States within range?

Because of this, it doesn't seem necessary to increase the range, so it's likely that the warhead weight has increased instead, can I look at it like this?

[Import]
Like that. That's why they're showing off their ability to fly heavier warheads as far away as possible. However, as the anchor just said, in the end, the point was to show off the power of the super-large warhead, I think we should look at it like this. Of course, it seems that engineers will probably conduct additional analysis and evaluation to see if it is correct to show off the multi-warhead re-entry technology or not.

Anyway, as you just said, we already have the range capability to hit the US mainland with the existing Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18 types. Can you fly heavier warheads further away? I think I'm in the process of continuing to develop this. That's why the Korean Central News Agency also said this today.

It is an essential attack in the road constantly upgrading the nation's strategic attack force. I used this expression. That's why it's still in the process. In the end, the ultimate goal is to have strategic nuclear deterrence against the United States to continue to advance the technology and continue to improve ICBM performance through it.

Then why do you keep making such irrational moves? As the anchor said earlier, didn't we have a military consultation with the U.S. in Washington, DC yesterday? Looking at the contents of the joint statement, in fact, there are contents that can be quite stimulated from the perspective of North Korea.

If you do something about it, North Korea continues to use it as a justification for ICBM provocations, which stipulates that the U.S. strategic assets are frequently threatening them and are constantly promoting the atmosphere of war. And these South Korea-U.S. military exercises and these characteristics are increasingly aggressive and aggressive.

We cannot help but prepare a strategic response to that. It keeps coming out like this. However, the contents of the joint statement of the Korea-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting are also inevitable to us. As North Korea continues to come out like this, it is necessary to further strengthen its extended deterrence power, and the core of the extended deterrence power is that U.S. strategic assets are deployed regularly and constantly on the Korean Peninsula to curb North Korea's nuclear threat.

So in a way, they're synergistic with each other. We say that we will stop North Korea's provocations through stronger deterrence, we will block it, and North Korea is also threatening us with the same logic, but we need a more advanced nuclear force than before, and we continue to have a vicious cycle with each other.

What's really unfortunate is that South Korea and the U.S. are clearly trying to prevent such reckless provocations from North Korea, but these should have the effect of further suppressing and blocking North Korea's provocations, but it's a pity that North Korea is turning into a monster in a way.

[Anchor]
Sanctions on North Korea are not easy because U.N. sanctions seem to be virtually nominal and there are China and Russia at the Security Council meeting. In the midst of this, the Korean government holds an NSC meeting and imposes independent sanctions on such things as solid fuels, so how can there be no effective measures?

[Import]
Unfortunately, similar sanctions have continued to this day and customized sanctions have been imposed to prevent North Korea's advancement of nuclear and missile capabilities. However, the reality is that it is difficult to guarantee the effectiveness of this sanction without cooperation between China and Russia. So in the end, the Korean government's desperate measures are to work with Western countries in some way to create a dense net to prevent North Korea from advancing its nuclear and missile programs, such as the supply of parts or the inflow of funds. I'm only making

, but I'll tell you again, if this sincere cooperation between China and Russia is not supported, I think the effect will be quite limited.

[Anchor]
There were reports that the North Korean military sent troops to Russia, but they were already deployed to the battlefield and were wiped out except for one. What do you think?

[Import]
I'm in a position to wait and see. There are various news coming out now, but in fact, the command and control system for the North Korean military is very strict. Therefore, there is a possibility that individual troops will be deployed to the battlefield in advance and fight, resulting in death already. I don't think that can happen considering the command and control system for the North Korean military that has been maintained so far.

In addition, circumstances in which the advance team has been dispatched are being detected, and this advance team is also at the level of a military commander in a way. So, you can go to the field in advance and see how you can adapt and demonstrate your survival and combat power in the field when a large-scale military personnel comes.

But you're put into battle in advance and you get killed? I think we need to wait and see for this part. Another point of view that I see is this. So Russia is now a federal state. It consists of various ethnic minorities, and most of the soldiers deployed to the battlefield now have quite a few volunteers from ethnic minorities.

Among them, Koreans may have been included. Because it's important to make money. They were sent to make money, so their way of speaking is very similar to that of North Korea. In that context, it can be misunderstood as a North Korean soldier and has a similar appearance to that of a North Korean soldier. For example, the residents of the Briat Republic, although many videos have already been released. It's quite likely that these people will mix.

Because the treatment of Russian soldiers and soldiers on the battlefield is very good, we believe that there will be quite a few soldiers from ethnic minorities who are dispatched to go as soldiers and make money anyway, so we need to observe this more.

[Anchor]
South Korea's ambassador to the U.N. and U.S. ambassador to the U.N. regarding the dispatch of North Korea at the U.N. Security Council North Korea continued to warn and North Korea responded, but North Korea was affected by this and made other provocations there, or reduced it. Do you think it will be affected?

[Import]
First of all, Chairman Kim Jong-un's strategic decision has already been made. In a way, there is a public opinion war on the international stage, and it seems that there is little possibility that such a public opinion war will affect Chairman Kim Jong-un's decision. A comprehensive strategic partnership treaty was signed between North Korea and Russia in June last year, and it has been ratified by Russia, and for the North Korean Kim Jong-un regime, the key is to get more benefits in return by continuing to show their will and practices related to the implementation of the treaty.

Therefore, although there are very many voices criticizing North Korea on the international stage, and we are of course condemning it regardless of ruling and opposition parties, it is very important to show as much performance as possible, show results on the battlefield, and receive as much as possible in return according to Chairman Kim Jong-un's strategic decision. There's only about 2 months left of this year, right? Next year is also a very important year for the Kim Jong-un regime.

So it's the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party. As you both know, it's the anniversary of the end of the year. It's the year that breaks. It's time to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Labor Party more grandly and maximize the internal and external achievements. I think that the most important task is to maximize performance in all aspects of politics, military and economy.

We are now taking a strategic approach by looking at various short-term tasks and mid- to long-term goals.

[Anchor]
We learned about North Korea's provocations and circumstances in which it fired an intercontinental ballistic missile in 10 months. Thank you for talking with me today.

[Import]
Thank you.