[Politics ON] The opposition party's proposal to reduce the amount was put on hold...Han Dong-hoon's "hostage play" vs Lee Jae-myung's "foolish"

■ Host: Youngsoo Kim anchor
■ Appearance: Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor at Bae Jae-dae, head of InSightK Research Center, Bae Jong-chan

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsON] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Let's start <Politics On> looking at the outside and inside of politics. Today, we will analyze it with Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor of Bae Jae-dae, and Bae Jong-chan, head of InSight K Research Institute. Please come in. Hello, let's look at the first keyword. This is the appearance of National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik. The first keyword is an emergency conference. National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik held an emergency press conference today.
The ruling and opposition parties asked for an agreement by the 10th, the last day of the regular parliamentary session on next year's budget. Let's hear what the leaders of the ruling and opposition parties said firsthand.

[Anchor]
December 2nd, today is the legal deadline for the passage of the budget bill.I don't think I've ever kept my hair. However, especially this year, the ruling and opposition parties seem to be in stronger conflict with each other. What do you think is different from the past?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
According to the original law, December 2nd is the last day to set a budget. However, December 10th is the end of the regular session of the National Assembly, and Chairman Woo Won-sik is sorry for not being able to meet the deadline. The budget should be finalized on December 2, but according to the law, there was an automatic proposal on December 2nd if the ruling and opposition parties could not do so due to such a conflict. Strictly speaking, it was created when the National Assembly Advancement Act was created. Because if we continue to have conflicts over the budget, sometimes we passed it even after December 31. It's a system created to prevent that. This can't be increased expediently, when the government budget comes out. So, since it is said that tax cuts can be made, the opposition party used it to submit a budget proposal that reduced it, but the problem is that it has never been. So, people keep saying that it's the first time in history. In a situation where the Democratic Party of Korea has a huge seat, it's the first time ever, the budget bill right now. I think the Board of Audit and Inspection reported today, impeachment. Then, I think the prosecutor who investigated CEO Lee Jae-myung and other prosecutors also reported today. So impeachment is only one conclusion because things that have never happened before keep happening. It's about what it's for. I think that the part about why the reduction was made is inevitably weak.

[Anchor]
Opposition parties claim that it is the normalization of the budget.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Then, in the past, why didn't you raise the question about the special activity costs of the auditor, the prosecution, and the police that we're talking about now? Why does this happen after CEO Lee Jae-myung is investigated for example and has his own judicial risk? If such a thing has happened enough in the past, the question I want to ask is: Then why can you persuade the people that the National Assembly's special expenses are not cut at all? Chairman Woo Won-sik is very skeptical about this. One thing we need to know is that Congress has the right to budget in the United States. We are not in the right to budget. It's the right to review the budget. So deliberation and organization are different. You'll probably remember. It was during the Clinton administration, and Congressman Ging Grich wouldn't pass the budget at all, so what happened was there was a lot of chaos. The government shuts down, and it's all about the budget. What happened in the end? Rep. Ging Grich, who shut down because of the budget, raised his hand. Because this is a phenomenon that came out because it is said that it has no choice but to damage the people, so I think this is the same.

[Anchor]
Director Bae Jong-chan said, "The ruling and opposition parties are in conflict, but the ruling and opposition parties are only arguing over you. Who do you think is more responsible?

[Bae Jong Chan]
I think there must be a decisive reason why National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik postponed the date. Because I just need to think about the budget.
But this is what happens when you put politics in the budget, political strife, and camp. The
Democratic Party can also provide an exact justification and basis if something needs to be reduced. I think there's a budget for that as well. So the important thing is that he was conscious of public opinion. The people will be unconvinced, why are they doing that?

[Anchor]
Please show me the graphic that passed the reduction budget budget preliminary committee.

[Bae Jong Chan]
Most of the reductions are not actually listed here, but in reality, the budget related to Honam development needs to be cut if it goes as it is. It is not clear why the interest repayment budget for treasury bonds will be cut by 500 billion won. So what's important here is to think about the budget. If the Democratic Party wants to have a justification, it can provide evidence on which budget should be reduced and why. That's the case in the United States, for example. These are content that we have no choice but to weigh with each other. For example, should we apply to Ukraine or not? Another is the Inflation Reduction Act, whether the IRA should be maintained or not. Then Obama Care, should I do this or not? There's no such issue. It's all political strife and there's a political high school. I want the Democratic Party to give an exact justification if there is anything that needs to be reduced. And even in the case of the government and the ruling party, it is necessary to talk about exactly which part of the conflict is immediately and only if you look at the budget for that part.

[Anchor]
One of the issues today was special activity costs. The opposition party says that the special activity expenses are being used without proper receipt processing, but there is no evidence. The ruling party is asking why the National Assembly's special activity expenses and the court's special activity expenses were not cut among the special activity expenses.

[Bae Jong Chan]
This should be clear and transparent. The first is that it takes time to submit evidence, so how long can you wait, when judging reasonably. What's the second one? Then why have so many courts when the police and prosecution are reduced? It is necessary to clearly explain that part and why the National Assembly remains the same. We need to cut the National Assembly more first. The National Assembly will completely eliminate the special activity cost itself. And if you take this opportunity to cut the salary because of financial problems.

[Anchor]
Sebi is never shaved.

[Bae Jong Chan]
I'm going to cut my salary, too. I'll cut it in half because the people are having a hard time now. If you say so, the public's consensus can be significantly increased. But without any preconditions, just think of the budget. I think all discussions, whether the DP claims it or the government and the ruling party, only consider the budget. Don't put politics, political strife, and camps in here.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
The most problematic part here is that the government has cut 2.4 trillion won in reserves.

[Anchor]
It was raised to 4 trillion won, but I think it was cut by 2 trillion won.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
When an emergency situation such as a disaster or an unexpected event occurs, it is a preliminary entry, but it is not common to cut government reserves until now. So, in the end, who will suffer damage in the future is that ordinary people are very likely to suffer damage, so there are some things to consider when it comes to government reserves, even if you touch other things. Furthermore, I also looked into the National Assembly budget a long time ago regarding the National Assembly issue. From the perspective of the public, including the special expenses of the National Assembly, this works properly. You can put it in the same place and talk. The National Assembly's special activity expenses are being operated so transparently, but for example, the special activity expenses of the prosecution and the police are not operating well, so we finally cut them, and furthermore, we should also see the special activity expenses of the prosecution during the Moon Jae In government. After looking at it like that, there's a problem with everything. Whether it's the Democratic or Yoon Suk Yeol government, you have to tell them that there is a problem in this part to persuade the people, but they didn't talk about it during the Moon Jae In government, but now they talk about it, so isn't this political retaliation? As you said earlier, I cut the prosecution's and not the court's. I have no choice but to say that this is inevitably against equity. [Anchor] I guess you don't handle receipts properly.

[Bae Jong Chan]
There are special expenses and special expenses, but in the case of special expenses, it may be difficult to reveal the purpose, and in the case of special expenses, there are unexpected expenses in advance. So what I'm telling you is that not all expenses are acceptable, the lack of receipts. However, the first thing that can be allowed is why you didn't bring the evidence quickly, but there are things that can be released quickly and things that take time.
You need to do a reasonable part of this.

[Anchor]
Thank you. Let's move on to the next keyword. Please show me. Choo Kyung-ho, floor leader of the People's Power Party. I used the expression runaway. Today's plenary session also reported the impeachment of three prosecutors, including Choi Hae-sa, chairman of the Board of Audit and Inspection, and Lee Chang-soo, chief of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office. Floor leader Choo Kyung-ho raised the level of criticism, saying that the majority party is running rampant. We will listen to the voices of floor leader Choo Kyung-ho and lawmaker Park Soo-hyun.

[Anchor]
The impeachment motion of the Board of Audit and Inspection is also unprecedented. I think there will be a vote in two days.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
This morning, the Secretary-General of the Board of Audit and Inspection talked about each item. So, if you look at the reasons for the impeachment of the auditor, isn't there a lot of things that are focused on the Moon Jae In government?

[Anchor]
The Democratic Party also claims that it violated political neutrality.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Do you think so? In a sense, there are many ways Congress can do it other than impeachment.
For example, through a parliamentary investigation, you can find out whether the Board of Audit and Inspection is really doing it properly. Then why do we do a parliamentary audit? The parliamentary audit is related to the overall government policy, isn't it? It can be done through a parliamentary audit and a parliamentary investigation, but impeachment means that it is done with political intentions. Furthermore, the reason for this impeachment is, for example, related to people's livelihoods, and the general public is harmed, so if you look at it in the past, isn't there something like this? I don't know that I'm going to punish this part because I did something wrong because I've been very damaged by the humidifier problem or other government policies, but isn't that what the bereaved families just applied for? And in the case of former Chairman Jeon Hyun-hee, if you talk about the wrong part and the fact that there are no charges, but you start to see all of this with a political frame, why then talk about the independence of the Board of Audit and Inspection and why has there never been an impeachment of the Board of Audit and Inspection? Isn't it because the auditor recognized the role and function of the auditor? In that sense, I think that continuing to impeach recklessly leads to a situation where the Democratic Party has no choice but to raise questions about what it is for.

[Anchor]
The ruling party pointed out that if the impeachment bill of the auditor Choi Hae-sa passes during the Moon Jae In administration, the auditor appointed by the Moon Jae In administration will take over as the acting president.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Regardless of the reason, if that happens, the ruling and opposition parties will go to a 3:3 structure, and in reality, there will be considerable difficulties in making decisions. That's not the point. The question is whether it is really justifiable to impeach the auditor for reasons that the public can understand, and how the auditor operates after that seems secondary.
Intrinsic question, has the auditor ever been impeached since democratization in 1987? To say that there is no, it should be the first in history in a good sense, but when it is said that it is the first in history in a bad sense, who is responsible for the impeachment if the Constitutional Court rejects it? Do you take responsibility for impeaching? You don't lose
. The Minister of Public Administration and Security has been impeached. But it was rejected by the Constitutional Court. Does the National Assembly take responsibility during the hiatus? You have to tell me about that, too. Just impeach him unconditionally and it doesn't matter what the outcome is? It can only be seen as a retaliatory impeachment, seeing it as a completely expedient and political impeachment.

[Anchor]
In the opposition party, despite the opposition from the Board of Audit and Inspection, an audit of the current government has not been conducted properly. In particular, it is argued that political neutrality has been lost because the audit of the presidential office of the current government is not being conducted properly.

[Bae Jong Chan]
I'm a data expert, so I think I need to look at it a little objectively. That is why they are evaluating the public opinion that the Democratic Party won the general election by a landslide. Then for the Democratic Party, political dissatisfaction and anger will build up. The president's approval rating is currently low, but there is no way to resolve the political situation through a meeting between the ruling and opposition parties, and such a response will lead to impeachment. And the cause was that the investigation into Kim Gun-hee was not carried out properly. And the current Board of Audit and Inspection has been briefed by the secretary-general of the Board of Audit and Inspection this morning, but overall, the audit committee members seem to be heavily influenced by the presidential office and the government.
Then there will be public opinion that recognizes that. Then let's respond strongly, but I think the level of response is important here. So, including the head of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office this time, two more people will be added. A total of 12 prosecutors will be subject to impeachment. But I'm asking if any of them will pass. What I'm saying is that it's a different dimension from raising the level of response and this impeachment being cited in the actual Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court's standard of judgment is that the president of Roh Moo Hyun is a violation of the law, but not enough to impeach him. Then, it is unlikely that impeachment will actually be cited, whether it is Choi Hae-jin, the head of the Board of Audit and Inspection, or Lee Chang-soo, the head of the District Prosecutors' Office. Then, if this happens, it could cause a backlash as a political offensive. What am I saying? Isn't the chairman of the Board of Audit and Inspection a little related to the risk of Lee Jae-myung's trial about impeaching the prosecution as an independent organization? You might be suspected. Then there are plenty of other features. It's possible to conduct a parliamentary investigation, Marine Chae did that. A parliamentary audit is also possible. You can also summon the standing committee. It means that you can do it as much as you want with this kind of means.

[Anchor]
It is said that it will be the 10th impeachment prosecution in the 22nd National Assembly. But isn't there a reason why the opposition party is pushing so hard? What kind of background do you think it is?

[Bae Jong Chan]
The first reason is to lead Jungkook. Since the president's low approval rating and Lee Jae-myung was acquitted by the perjury teacher, it can be judged that it is better to lead strong public opinion now in overcoming such risks that may come in the future.

[Anchor]
CEO Han Dong-hoon is also claiming that he is driving the entire Republic of Korea into anarchy by saving himself.

[Bae Jong Chan]
Politically, representative Han Dong-hoon would argue. So, the Democratic Party doesn't ostensibly talk about shortening the term of office, whether it's impeached by the president.There is a possibility that Ma will be recognized so carefully if it connects to the outdoor protest, but whether or not a large number of the people sympathize with it is another matter.

[Anchor]
The impeachment bill was reported by the Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea Choi Hae-soo, and three prosecutors, including Lee Chang-soo, the head of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office, reported the impeachment bill. Then, the chief of the district prosecutor's office will be suspended.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
I don't know what will happen for a long time, but anyway, the job will be suspended. I don't know if you're trying to use it as a kind of pressure card. A case in point is that the acquittal of Deutsche Motors' stock price manipulation in relation to Mrs. Kim Gun-hee was done for that reason.

[Anchor]
It's also a violation of political neutrality.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Shouldn't it be legal, not impeachment, to actually be able to judge that? Nevertheless, to put forward impeachment first, from the perspective of a researcher studying the parliamentary process, what was the most used word by the opposition party in the past when the ruling party was very powerful? It was about not wielding power at will. But now, if checks and balances are achieved in the presidential system, what is the most basic thing to criticize President Yoon Suk Yeol? I'm not saying I use my power as I please. Is it okay for Congress to wield power at will in that way? There is no choice but to have the first question. So what's really unfortunate is what French thinker Tocqueville said 180 years ago is the tyranny of the parliamentary majority. Soft poison can come out with power. I said that, but it was so terrible to see it happen in the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea 180 years later. As I always say, if these two norms of institutional restraint and mutual respect are not followed, parliamentary democracy will inevitably collapse. In that sense, is it really right to only talk about self-justification about using power at will? In the end, I have no choice but to say that it is a matter of philosophy, and furthermore, I think we should think deeply about what parliament is.

[Anchor]
If the prosecutor passes the impeachment bill this time, there will be more than 10 people?

[Bae Jong Chan]
That's right.

[Anchor]
I'll analyze how it affects public opinion in a little while through a poll. Let's look at the next keyword.
Kim Min-seok is the supreme council member of the Democratic Party of Korea. I mentioned six months. At the 5th OTC Rally to Condemn the Government held last Saturday, Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok said, "Let's make it within six months." I'll listen to it myself.

[Anchor]
Kim Min-seok, the supreme council member, said, "Let's play within six months." Some say that Lee Jae-myung's judicial risk in the case of the Public Official Election Act was in mind.

[Bae Jong Chan]
That's what I'm conscious of. Also, if you look at it now, Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok's voice is quite high at the outdoor condemnation rally. It's the so-called pick-point theory that former lawmaker Cho Eung-cheon talked about a while ago. Who is so-called more vocal? In such a competitive structure, Kim Min-seok, a senior member of the Supreme Council, has a higher tone of voice than Chung Chung-rae, a former senior member of the Supreme Council. That's something we should pay attention to. What is noteworthy here is that as anchor Kim said just now, the second trial of the Public Official Election Act must be within three months, but it will be difficult to come out so soon. Then at least 6 months...

[Anchor]
The Public Official Election Act is 6, 3, 3. 6 months, 3 months, 3 months.

[Bae Jong Chan]
It has many meanings. In six months, it's May next year, so we're talking about the so-called cherry blossom ending. It also links the impeachment phase and shortening the term of office. The ruling party emphasized the term of the National Assembly, saying, "Isn't the term of the 22nd National Assembly longer for lawmakers than the president?" It's kind of stimulating that I think I can leave. Anger always leads to stimulation. Finally, as you said, this part of the second trial of the Public Official Election Act is a factor that can become quite unstable, so six months later seems to have this implication.

[Anchor]
Let's compete within six months of the government's protest rally, how did you see this statement?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
As you said, six, three, three, so what I'm interested in is all the condemnation of the Democratic Party of Korea that we're talking about, and further criticism of the current government, and what can be a watershed is the second trial ruling. But in my view, the second trial ruling is not that complicated. There were two issues related to the election law. He finally ruled on whether there was a threat from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport related to Baekhyun-dong, saying that he played golf or not. This is no longer a matter that can drag on. There are parts that can come out within 3 months. Also, I'm not guilty of perjury, so there's no reason to delay the trial. I'm pretty sure these two cases will end in three or four months. However, if only one of the two trials is deprived of the right to run for election, the Democratic Party will be shaken. Let's not finish it in six months, but we can eventually face headwinds backwards. Lee Jae-myung is supposed to end within a year and within a year. When you do that, you struggle like this to prevent it. What I have about this story that it will be over in six months is that we should make a new decision and take the presidential election before the final ruling anyway. Another thing I want to emphasize is what does the opposition party say in the National Assembly right now that the legislature is dominated by the opposition party? They confirmed the public sentiment. Then you don't check the public sentiment of the president, right? So it's the same situation.
The effect that comes when you interpret everything in your favor and go to Ganggong in that way and condemn it will be as effective as expected. . Whether or not Lee Jae-myung's unipolar system can continue will end within a year. Rather, it can more accurately hit the inflection point of Korean politics, and I think it will be difficult to change with the simple six months, wind, and expectations that Kim Min-seok is talking about.

[Anchor]
I see. Thank you very much. Before today's poll, please show us the following keywords. Let's take a look at the reaction within the ruling party and go to the polls.

Please show us the next keyword. CEO Han Dong-hoon came out. Strategic Ambiguity. Representative Han Dong-hoon has not made a clear statement on the vote on the "Kim Gun-hee Special Prosecutor Act." The close circle has come up with an analysis that it is a warning to pro-yoon and <Strategic Ambiguity>, and we will listen to the remarks of Shin Ji-ho, the Vice-President of Strategic Planning.

[Anchor]
Vice-President Shin Ji-ho says it seems to be an expression of strategic ambiguity. But CEO Han Dong-hoon asked reporters again today. I'll replace it with my past remarks. But there are a lot of past remarks. There is a public eye level and there are many remarks, but they don't talk clearly. What kind of background is there?

[Bae Jong Chan]
Strategic ambiguity is when it's difficult to talk about. So at times like this, we get all clueless.
But now, it's inevitable that it's related to CEO Han Dong-hoon, but if this goes like this, it's another Yoon conflict, because it's a Yoon Han great conflict. Now CEO Han Dong-hoon became the party leader because he said he was changing. But has it changed? I couldn't go because of the change. So I can't decide whether to break up or not right now. It's very sensitive and we don't know what kind of future will unfold. Breaking up is breaking up with the president of Yoon Suk Yeol.

[Anchor]
According to recent reports, Han thinks Yongsan is systematically moving in relation to the controversy over the bulletin board of party members. It's not confirmed.

[Bae Jong Chan]
As I said, I can't do this or that, so the position where Han stands now is strategic ambiguity. But the problem is that analyzing the data does not solve this problem in a strategic ambiguity situation.
So what is that? Let's see the president's approval rating later.Ma's party competitiveness, the president's approval rating does not have an inflection point, there is no inflection point for the rise, and Han Dong-hoon's own approval rating does not have an inflection point when competing with Lee Jae-myung. Then, in the end, strategic ambiguity cannot be taken permanently. Moreover, if representative Han Dong-hoon runs for president, he can serve as the party leader until September next year. Looking at the cherry blossom ending theory that it's 6 months old.

[Anchor]
You said you would decide your position two or three days in advance. What decision do you think you'll make two or three days in advance?

[Bae Jong Chan]
Here, what representative Han Dong-hoon can now issue two to three days before the re-decision of the Special Prosecutor Act will be passed, before December 10. That judgment is a difficult one. In the end, it is expected to maintain such strategic ambiguity, which has no choice but to go to rejection.

[Anchor]
Strategic Ambiguity, what do you think of Professor Kim Hyung-joon?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
I don't think I would use that expression. We should go with strategic patience, not strategic ambiguity. It's about being strategically patient. You all know it now. Why is this a problem? If it's such a strategic ambiguity, it's like warning, and if it doesn't work, we'll vote for it on the 10th of the Special Prosecutor's Office Act. Such remarks themselves are bound to conflict with each other emotionally. So, isn't CEO Han Dong-hoon aware of the situation? You have to endure it. But who decides after all? Before the 10th, we should show strategic patience and think about what will happen next for the end of the year or the beginning of the year. If we talk about ambiguity after voting on December 10, I think we need to have a cooling system because there are parts that could be a conflict again.

[Anchor]
I see. I recently analyzed political issues from various angles. I'll see how it was reflected in the poll. According to the president's evaluation of state administration, the approval rating has increased from 25.7 to 25%. The negative rating went from 70.3 to 71%. It's a real meter survey. Let's look at party support as well. The power of the people is 32.3, the Democratic Party is 45.2, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party 6.1, and the Reform New Party 2.6. Let's analyze the president's job performance evaluation first. It's maintained in the 20% range.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
There is no inflection point for change. So, for example, the most important thing is that if you make a significant change in personnel, there are parts that can be tempting. Perhaps the reason why there is no big change is that there is a lot of talk about the economy rather than Kim Gun-hee, the independent counsel, or Chae, the independent counsel. What I'm taking as a shock right now is that next year's economic growth rate was announced by the Bank of Korea, not anywhere else. Low growth in the 1% range. And the Chosun Ilbo, which represents conservative media, is doing it as a series. Aren't we becoming Japanese? In the long run, aren't we falling into a low-growth swamp? I have a lot of anxiety about these things. The other thing is that the government says that prices are adjusting somewhat well, but if you look at the news these days, they keep reporting that prices are rising in many ways. These parts. And furthermore, if the Trump administration is finally launched, it will face a tariff bomb, but it is about whether Korea, which is focused on exports, will be able to overcome it well. Regarding this, it's not clear that it's Yoon No-mix by Yoon Seok-yeol and Yoon Seok-yeol-sik. The Chosun Ilbo also pointed out, but in the end, industry is the driving force behind growth. In relation to this industry, I think it would be a little difficult to expect any changes without the exact clarity of what the Yoon administration will do in the second half of its administration.

[Bae Jong Chan]
If I summarize it briefly, you can see it on the screen, but the reason for Gallup Korea's negative evaluation is not Kim Gun-hee, but now the highest is the economy, people's livelihood, and prices. So the problem is the economy, if it's like this, I'm going to integrate wave after wave in an unconventional and speedy way, and if you don't do this, your approval rating won't go up. As a result, this is the current Gyeongin office, just as the Lee Myung Bak administration reversed its approval rating due to the practical use of the Shinseom people. It's economy, people's livelihoods, and communication. In short, rather than talking to a large number of people, there is an answer to our problems. What are the concerns of our students who cannot get a job? Rather, traditional markets also go to supermarkets where there are many housewives in their 20s and 30s, what is the price problem of the mart right now, and these parts are examined by the president and ministers as they travel around the site and organically connect with vice ministers and director-general through mobile. This kind of approach would seem more efficient.

[Anchor]
I see. Today's political issue and politics will end here. So far, I've been with Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor of Bae Jae-dae, and Bae Jong-chan, head of Insight K Research Institute. Thank you.