Victor Cha "Long-term chaos in Korea, worst-case scenario for Trump's 2nd Korea-U.S. alliance"

A South Korean expert in the U.S. analyzed that the longer the political turmoil in South Korea due to the martial law crisis and impeachment, the more adversely it will affect the South Korea-U.S. alliance.

Victor Cha, the South Korean chair of the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an online conversation that the current situation is likely to be the worst-case scenario for the start of the second Trump administration and the Korea-U.S. alliance.

Cha said he met with Trump's former aides the day before, and they said there would be a lot of things that could affect South Korea in the first 100 hours, not Trump's first 100 days, and pointed out that it could also be related to the U.S. Forces Korea, tariffs and semiconductor laws.

Cha stressed that personal ties between leaders are very important, but there is no one in South Korea to do this, and the situation could continue beyond the summer, which is a very bad scenario.

In particular, the combination of Trump's universal tariff pledge and South Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. almost certainly means tariffs on South Korea more than 10 percent, he said, predicting tariffs will definitely be imposed before South Korea regains leadership.

At the same time, he pointed out that there is a problem that everyone in the world goes to Mar-a-Lago or the White House to try individual negotiations, but there is no one in Korea who can do that.