Trump's unbridled treatment of China's most favored countries is rather a negative effect on the Korean economy?

■ Broadcast: YTN Radio FM 94.5 (09:00-10:00)
■ Host: Reporter Cho Tae-hyun
■ Air date: December 27, 2024 (Thursday)
■ Talks: Min Jeong-hoon, Professor of American Research at the National Diplomatic Institute, Kang Joon-young, Professor of the Graduate School of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

◆ Reporter Cho Tae-hyun (hereinafter referred to as Cho Tae-hyun): Let's talk with Professor Min Jeong-hoon of the American Research Department of the National Diplomacy and Professor Kang Joon-young of the Graduate School of International Studies of Korea University of Foreign Studies. Speaking of exchange rates earlier, the won-dollar exchange rate is soaring above 1,470 won. The political turmoil in Korea may have affected it, but it seems that it is also affecting the strength of the dollar that the second Trump period will bring. As such, the impact of the second Trump and the U.S.-China war on the global economy and our economy is enormous. Let me ask Professor Kang first. If the second Trump is launched, pressure on China will increase, and as you said earlier, there will be room for one-on-one dialogue. This situation could be an opportunity for China. I think there's also this analysis. What do you think of the professor?

□ Kang Joon-young, professor of the Graduate School of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (hereinafter Kang Joon-young): That's right. In particular, it's a different international environment than before the 2nd Trump. There are many environments that did not exist in the first period, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, then Israel and Iran, and then North Korea and Russia get closer and dispatch troops. So you're professing yourself right now. I will end the war in Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours. But from China's point of view, I think that Trump 2.0 can have a gap when he uses a very coercive policy, whether it's an ally or not. For example, if you side with Russia, then EU countries will say, "Of course, Trump paid only 2.2% for your defense, but shouldn't he raise it to 3% or I'll leave." Then, if Russia really ends the Russian war as Putin intended, then the EU will be exposed to Russia. That means that there will be such a gap. In that case, if China gets stuck with the United States, it will try to strengthen it with the third world or with the EU or something like that. So, in that sense, I think I also think diplomatically that there is a space in China.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Looking at the foreign press now, China and Japan are expanding their contact. There's a report like this. Is it the same concept?

□ Kang Joon-young: That's right. During Trump's first term, then-Prime Minister Abe went to the U.S. and played golf together. We were so close. However, when U.S. Trump's pressure on Japan was strengthened, economic cooperation between the U.S., China, and Japan was strengthened. Ironically, and we had a similar experience. That's why there's such a gap. So in this situation, as you know well, China is really thinking about expanding its so-called influence through BRICS and expanding its influence through one-on-one. So, while talking one-on-one with the U.S. and Trump, China will continue to target areas that could be opened by the U.S. hard-line policy, so there was a National People's Party in March, and Wang Yi is the foreign minister and a member of the Politburo, and this guy had a press conference. It's supposed to be done by the prime minister, but what it says is that our diplomacy has changed a lot from the third world to the global South. The fact that I said this is an extension of that. It's not a diplomatic war, but it's because the U.S. is going to come out strong, so those studying in China think, "Oh, this is getting ready for Trump." In March of this year, so if that happens, there will inevitably be a wave, and China will dig into that gap, which is another very important axis of China's foreign strategy. So it's the same with Korea. If Korea and the U.S. put pressure on each other, that's what happens now. China keeps saying that cooperation between Korea, China, and Japan should be strengthened. That's all what happens in that extension. So opportunity and crisis come at the same time. The U.S. is the only ally in the U.S. that is agonizing over North Korea's nuclear issue, but now we need to appoint Colby as deputy defense minister and put the U.S. Forces Korea in check on China. It's a headache because I keep doing this, but the phenomenon of opportunity and crisis coming at the same time is coming to us right now. Then I think the key is how we will use this well.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: It's always very important to catch up on that opportunity in such a rapidly changing situation. As you said, China can take advantage of new opportunities, and recently, Trump will withdraw from the WHO. China will establish itself very much in that position. There's also this prospect. I don't think the U.S. doesn't know that there is such a benefit in return, but will it stay still?

■ Min Jeong-hoon, professor of American Studies at the National Diplomatic Institute (hereinafter referred to as Min Jeong-hoon): So the view of the current international environment is divided into the United States. So underneath that is awareness of the relative decline of American power. As you know, in the 21st century, the United States waged two wars in the Middle East and the financial crisis came domestically in 2008. After that, there was a growing voice in the United States that we should focus more and use our national power more efficiently than domestic issues. So, as Obama, Trump, and Biden went through the second Trump period, they must choose and focus on foreign policy and intervene around what is essential. It seems that the basis of this foreign policy is still continuing. There is a slight difference in the methodology, and as you said, in the case of Biden, he is trying to restore the U.S. global leadership by cooperating with the alliance and partner countries. That doesn't mean that the Biden administration was involved in everything around the world. The United States as a global police officer is now difficult to find. Nevertheless, the United States has lost power, so Biden will use his strategic assets, the Alliance, to join his allies and partners. This is why when we go to the United States at the end of the Biden administration, when we see the Chinese delegation come and talk, they tell the truth. So it hurts a lot. Since the U.S. joined forces with its allies and partners to hit China, China has never been so isolated. It's so lonely and hard. I talked about how uncomfortable I felt. So if Trump comes in, he can breathe a little bit in that part. But from Trump's point of view, it is another view that reflects the reality of the United States. Because this is a realistic view, the United States has never created a liberal international order, and it is not a blind state, but it is more necessary to pursue its own interests. It's just a powerful country. It is not reasonable to intervene in all matters because the United States has weakened its power differently than it used to be. It's not realistic. That's why you have to choose and focus on what you need. It's like this. Trump is just emphasizing that through more blatantly non-interventionist remarks like this. So why do you need Global South so much in the mouth of the United States? If not, we can just neglect it, and multilateral diplomacy by international organizations is not appropriate for the powerful United States. If so, we can focus on both sides and only focus on the necessary parts, and if international organizations do not meet the United States and incur too much costs, we can withdraw. So I think it's like two sides of a coin. In the face of a decline in U.S. power, Biden is trying to pursue the interests of the U.S. with allies and partners, and Trump will have to be together and not in accordance with the interests of the U.S., regardless of alliance or non-alignment. There are two sides that show this. So what Trump is saying would be very unreasonable from our point of view, but it's one of those views that is solidly supported in the United States.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: That's why he won the presidential election by a landslide. I don't understand well that day, and I've seen a lot of intellectuals being very embarrassed, but I think that could happen anyway. Now, let's critically point out the parts that are important to us. When two giants fight, the small people in the middle always get very sick. In your opinion, which country do you think will be the first to burst your back?

□ Kang Joon-young: Well, if you look at statistics in the economy and things like that, Korea is the most affected, Taiwan is always in the top three. Our country. But the reason for this is, first of all, from an economic point of view, our trade dependence on China is now about 19.7%, and the U.S. is now almost 18%. However, if there is a problem with trade between the U.S. and China, we have a problem with exports to the U.S., but about 80% of what we export to China is intermediate goods. Then, if there is a problem with the U.S. and China's exports to the U.S., there will be a problem with our exports to China, so first of all, there will be a problem with our exports themselves. And there are many people who say that tariffs are imposed equally, but our direct exports to the U.S. will inevitably have problems. Then, in the end, the biggest issue is that if the U.S.-China conflict is strengthened, especially by the tariff trade war, such a problem can arise, and we cannot help but talk about the North Korean nuclear issue. From the standpoint of the Republic of Korea, how to escape the threat of North Korea? Depending on the South Korean government, there are some excessive expectations of China's role, but it seems that China is no longer willing to do it or not capable. So there was a clear difference between the last government and the current government. Nevertheless, the North Korean nuclear issue is not just a problem between the two Koreas, so we have to go in a cooperative atmosphere in any form. For example, President Trump, who likes a one-on-one solution, meets with Kim Jong-un and passes South Korea, and for example, the flow of such things continuously seems to be uncomfortable for us. It's burdensome. As I said earlier, if the U.S. Forces Korea's role is readjusted as Colby became deputy defense minister, if it is to check China, China will have no choice but to put pressure on South Korea again in a diplomatic and security manner. So, in that sense, it's said that it's in the middle, but there was always a time when it wasn't like that. Since World War II between China and Japan, the U.S. and China have been struggling, but I think we should still be not like shrimp, but I think we should be like dolphins. Personally, there's something called dolphin diplomacy. What has changed a bit from the first period is that they made a lot of money in Korea and did it with American technology, but there are things that they admit. For example, there is a space like Joseon or a display. We also talk about how to use those things properly and continue to communicate with the U.S. side. The reason why I keep saying this is because there is something that we create to change the Korea-US FTA is wrong. If I keep going like this is because Korea seems to get along well with China to receive a kind of respect from the U.S. and even though I don't like it inside, it's recognized for their importance. Equally more importantly, Korea and the U.S. should be strong so that China cannot attack Korea. It's like our destiny, but I think we need to be confident in those things.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: You can understand that we need to speak out instead of just being dragged around, but I think all the people who listen have similar concerns. Listener 1 is worried about the country inside and outside. It's going to be okay in Korea. That's what he said. Listener 2 should prepare for Korea, but these days, the situation is only giving you sleepless nights. You seem to have a lot of worries. I think Professor Min will agree that Korea is one of the countries where our backs will burst. If so, diplomatic capabilities will be very important, but these days, behind-the-scenes contact is not working well. What's the actual situation like?

■ Min Jeong-hun: The efforts were consistently made by the diplomatic authorities. I was doing it and I'm continuing to do it, but as you said, the domestic political situation is very urgent, so there were times when I watched the situation for a while to keep an eye on it. However, it has been resumed and is being organized, and the key is how active Trump will contact our diplomatic authorities. Because we're also confused, so there's something that's not clear about who's the control tower, so President-elect Trump also wants to meet with the leaders and show some results. In that sense, Korea's politics is faltering, so I'm watching it from this point of view, and in that sense, there are concerns that it's more difficult to contact the higher level. It's a process like that.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I think Trump will be a little embarrassed by the impeachment of the Park Geun Hye in the first period and the impeachment of the Yoon Suk Yeol in the second period. Then, I'll ask you this part as the last question. Ahead of Trump's second term, the U.S.-China hegemony conflict will intensify. Then, what should we not miss in this situation? What will the professor emphasize the most?

□ Kang Joon-young: I kind of think that. It's also important to do something. I should do it like this. But I think I need to look at it carefully and think about what I shouldn't do. First of all, for example, we can't even lead the U.S.-China conflict, but rather than hitting it like this and doing it like this, we don't have leadership right now, so let's take a close look at the situation and say it's a very unrealistic attitude. So I think we need to make a program that takes a quiet and practical approach. Because if we have a normal national leadership system, the task force would have been activated, but we're doing it now.Ma isn't very comprehensive. In this case, we quickly put the whole United States and China in any form and organize them on a piece of paper. I think it's more important to check what you need and what you don't do first and pass by.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. I want you to listen carefully to this part. What advice would you give me?

■ Min Jung-hoon: You have the second Trump administration coming in. So during the Biden administration, we called it value diplomacy, so we emphasized alliance partnerships and blood allies, and in a way, if there was a problem with the economy and trade, we could communicate our position through diplomatic and security lines, so when it's compatible, what do you call this big thing? Since the policy came down from the Biden administration in a synchronic manner, there was a part where it was possible to contact in that regard. Since Trump's second term is an administration centered on practicality and profit, as in the first term, we are not saying that we should abandon the importance of value diplomacy or the Korea-U.S. alliance, but if Biden's value has risen a little when it has value and practicality, Trump should respond to it. Therefore, while emphasizing the importance of any Korea-U.S. alliance, I think it will be a win-win situation during the Trump crisis if we provide something to President Trump or the second administration, which will benefit the U.S. interest, and we can receive something from it. This relationship will highlight the relationship. If Trump continues to provide a part that can be used politically and achievements in Korea's relationship with Korea, and we also use it to lead it to our interests, then I think it will be a win-win situation during the Trump crisis. In other words, the Korea-U.S. alliance is important and the Korea-U.S. relations These strategic goals are the same, but I think that if we take a more different approach to some methodology, then we can secure our interests without much difficulty in the second Trump period.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: It's because there's no hope. A small man who confronts a giant must be wise. We should not repeat the same situation as the end of the Korean Empire. Listeners 3 explained well why Trump likes tariffs so much. You said it as if you've become knowledgeable, but it's a compliment. If you keep listening to our show, I think you'll be able to learn a lot. I made a comprehensive diagnosis of the U.S.-China conflict with Professor Min Jeong-hoon of the American Research Department of the National Diplomacy and Professor Kang Joon-young of the Graduate School of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Thank you for your words today.

■ Min Jeong-hoon, □ Kang Joon-young: Yes, thank you.


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