The Korean Peninsula's Top 10 Conflicts of Attention This Year..."There's a possibility of Kim Jong Un's misjudgment".

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think tank specializing in international disputes, has included the Korean Peninsula conflict in the "Top 10 Disputes to Watch in 2025."

The ICG cited the "Korean Peninsula" as the ninth of the top 10 conflicts in an article with the title posted on its website on the 1st local time, saying, "The Korean Peninsula will face a year of high tensions while many are in flux."

The ICG pointed out that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sent troops to Russia to support the war in Ukraine last year after formally abandoning his policy of peaceful reunification with South Korea and signing a mutual defense treaty with Russia.

He then analyzed that the two Koreas have effectively cut off mutual contact, so there are fewer ways to manage the situation if a situation occurs at a time when friction is growing.

Russia is unlikely to give nuclear weapons technology to North Korea for fear of China's opposition, but it seems to have promised fighter technology and has the potential to help with missile technology.

In addition, referring to the declaration of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol and the resulting impeachment by the National Assembly, he predicted that upheaval could continue.

The ICG believes that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's return to power is also a factor that adds to the uncertainty of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Although it is unlikely that Trump will scrap the Korea-U.S. mutual defense treaty or withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea, he could demand that South Korea increase its share of defense costs, which could raise voices among ordinary Koreans that South Korea should arm itself with nuclear weapons.

He also pointed out that if the U.S. side takes a vague attitude toward the South Korea-U.S. alliance, there is a concern that Kim Jong-un will act boldly.

Regarding the possibility of the second Trump administration's nuclear negotiation diplomacy with North Korea, the ICG evaluated, "It may be difficult, but it is worth trying."

However, given that North Korea's nuclear program has progressed further and that North Korea and Russia have signed a military agreement, it is expected that the difficulties will be greater than the negotiations in the first phase.

Although Kim Jong-un is unlikely to go to all-out war, he is likely to make some form of provocation with a misjudgment, and in that case, the U.S. and its allies will be under pressure to respond, the ICG said.

The ICG also cited ▲ Syria ▲ Sudan ▲ Ukraine and European security ▲ Israel-Palestine ▲ Iran versus the United States and Israel ▲ Haiti ▲ America-Mexico ▲ Myanmar ▲ China-U.S.