Iran sends massive missiles to Israel...the situation in the Middle East is in full swing.

■ Host: anchor Lee Hyun-woong, anchor Kim Jung-jin
■ Telephone connection: Park Hyun-do, professor at Sogang University's Euromena Research Center

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.


[Anchor]
It's dawn today (2nd) in our time. We are informing you that Iran has carried out a large-scale missile attack on Israel. This happened yesterday after Israel launched a ground war in Lebanon against the pro-Iranian militant group Hezbollah. There are growing concerns that armed conflict in the Middle East could escalate into an all-out war. Let's find out the situation with Professor Park Hyun-do of Sogang University's Euromena Research Institute. Professor, you're out, right?

[Park Hyun Do]
How are you?

[Anchor]
Thank you for the early morning connection. What I was worried about became a reality. Iran has launched a retaliatory attack, so please tell me the details.

[Park Hyun Do]
In fact, Iran has endured a lot. There was a lot of talk that they would continue to attack, but in fact, Iran has refrained from attacking in order to establish a flexible relationship with the West since the election of a new president. What President Pejeshikan said about the Lebanese airstrike is that when Haniyeh died in Iran, the United States and the West promised Iran. If we don't attack Israel, we're going to have a ceasefire agreement and a port agreement that Hamas wants, and that's what Israel is doing again targeting Nasrallah. And when President Fezeshikyan said that the United States and the West lied to us, there was an atmosphere that there could be some attack on Israel. No one expected to attack so suddenly.

[Anchor]
Professor, it was a missile attack in the name of retaliation, but what do you think about the possibility of Iran starting a ground war more or launching additional attacks?

[Park Hyun Do]
Iran is not in a situation where it can wage a ground war. If you attack, you have no choice but to continuously shoot air warfare and missiles. In fact, there is one of Iran's deadliest weaknesses. The weakness is that the anti-aircraft defense network is quite weak. Therefore, if Israel fires missiles with retaliatory attacks or attacks Iran with very high-powered fighter jets, such as F-35s, it is actually quite difficult for Iran. However, I personally think that the attack was carried out in consideration of that this time, and that there was a certain commitment to Russia's anti-aircraft defense network. Otherwise, in fact, if Iran hits one, Israel has the ability to hit ten. So that's the focus right now. It's very likely that Russia and Iran have been talking to each other about this attack as they obviously have a close relationship.

[Anchor]
From what the United States has been saying, if it attacks Israel, it will have serious consequences. I've been warning you like this. So the attack was carried out and what will happen to the U.S. response in the future?

[Park Hyun Do]
In fact, the U.S. doesn't want a war. The biggest weakness of the Biden administration this time is that it was only done with words. In fact, Israel should have been restrained from such an attack, but the U.S. talked about self-restraint, but it actually kept giving weapons, so it's a different story. So Presidential candidate Trump is not wrong. The U.S. should have stopped everything if it wanted to stop it, but it's the Biden administration that kept raising tensions. He said he would discuss closely with Israel again and see the situation later, but that doesn't mean Israel is in favor of hitting Iran, but the U.S. can't stop Israel from hitting Iran. That's the biggest dilemma the Biden administration has right now.

[Anchor]
Professor, although this Iranian attack was a limited or local operation by Israel yesterday, there is a ground war in Lebanon now. Do we have to interpret it as "the ground war has begun in earnest"?

[Park Hyun Do]
Israel won't stop. In fact, this is the picture that Israel wants the most. I think what Iran was able to win is that it had to endure to the end to win this fight. This is what Israel wants the most because Iran could have put pressure on Israel much more freely on the diplomatic stage, but now Iran has also pulled its sword. If you look at the big picture drawn by Israel, the Israel-Hamas War, which started in October 2023, Israel doesn't think it's the Israel-Hamas War. Because we think of Hamas as a war against Iran, which controls it from behind, we thought of it as an Iran-Israel war in the big picture, and ultimately the main purpose is to involve the U.S. to create a U.S.-Iran war and Israel to jump on it and neutralize Iran's strategic assets and nuclear facilities. In order to do that, Iran has to come up to the ring. However, Iran has endured it hard so far. But I couldn't overcome the last crisis. Hasan Nasrallah's death seems to have been quite a blow to Iran. In particular, it seems harder to see the collapse of Hezbollah's front line, which has been built since at least 85. That's why I intervened directly. In fact, from a strategic point of view, it was a better strategy for Iran to endure. In other words, however, if Iran does not intervene in this situation this time, many of the prepared forces that Iran has supported will be disappointed with Iran and there is a possibility that the proxy front that Iran has built will collapse, so Iran has to participate. In the end, it is changing its strategy to participate rather than endure, drawing a picture that Israel wanted to learn.

[Anchor]
It is the first time in 18 years that Israeli ground forces have crossed the Lebanese border, although some changes in the atmosphere have recently appeared. I think this period will be meaningful, too. Is the influence of the United States, which the United States has been dissuading, limited?

[Park Hyun Do]
You have to say that the U.S. has no influence. The U.S. doesn't have the ability to control Israel. Again, the United States actually has one ability to control. You don't have to give me a weapon. You can't give me a weapon, but I'm giving you a weapon and telling you not to do it, so it's actually the same thing as telling me to do it because I give it to you. How can the U.S. stop this? Israel said it was a limited war, but it is not very likely to be a limited war. Because Hezbollah won't stand still. I'll move a little bit, and furthermore, it's the New Year from October 1st for Israel. It's the new year, so Israelis have to gather and talk to their families, but they're continuing to lead to war. So the atmosphere in Israel is actually drawing attention, but at least the Israeli people are tired of the war against Hamas, but Israeli public opinion is likely to support the fight against Hezbollah and Iran.

[Anchor]
Why does Israel continue to carry out bold attacks despite American dissuasion, what do you want in the end?

[Park Hyun Do]
The so-called New Middle East, the new Middle East initiative. The Middle East that Israel thinks is a Middle East that is completely free from Iranian power and Iranian influence. I'm talking about the Middle East. The best-known speech comes from Netanyahu's speech at the United Nations a few days ago. I came out with two maps. One map is called a blessing map. On that map, Israel and Arab countries talk about a new Middle East while being truthful about the trade network. Another map is the map of the curse, which is that Iran's influence affects many parts of the Middle East, making the world situation unstable. So Israel's ultimate new Middle East strategy is to completely eliminate Iran's influence and bring it into that state that Netanyahu called the Blessing Map. We're now countering Iran to complete that strategy.

[Anchor]
Professor, the removal of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Israel's aggressive push this time has added confidence to this operation. Can I interpret it like this?

[Park Hyun Do]
That's right. Hassan Nasrallah, in fact, according to media reports, when the war started last year, they told the U.S. that they would get rid of Hassan Nasrallah, but they couldn't because the U.S. stopped them. So this time, I didn't tell the United States at all, but I told the United States that I started the removal operation first and then informed the United States. So now, Israel believes that Hezbollah's leadership, including Hasan Nasrallah, has been completely destroyed, so I don't think Hezbollah is an important issue anymore. I think they've neutralized Hezbollah. The next target is Iran. But Iran did not respond to what Israel wanted, which is a painting that Israel didn't want, but now that Iran has painted it, Israel is actually very happy inside. This situation is what Israel wants, and the United States is in a more difficult situation, and how much the U.S. can prevent is a matter of fact, and at the same time, how much Russia can intervene will be the most important factor to prevent tension from rising after the Hezbollah attack.

[Anchor]
You analyzed that the reason for Israel's attack is to create a new Middle East order, but how far will you advance if you cross the border?

[Park Hyeon-do]
For now, controlling Hezbollah is one of the most important purposes Israel has. Because in a situation where Korea is confronting North Korea, there is a demilitarized zone. There is a demilitarized zone, but there is no demilitarized zone between Israel and Lebanon. That's why we're on the border. If Hezbollah fires missiles from the border toward Israel, Israel is helpless. So even after the start of the war, at least 60,000 Israelis within 5 kilometers of the border are now leaving their hometowns for Tel Aviv or these cities. So for Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon has to go further north to end the war and resettle the people of the north. So what I'm asking Hezbollah to do now is retreat towards the Ritani River, which is about seven kilometers from the border. I'm saying I'll quit if I retreat. But Hezbollah says we can't, so if Hezbollah goes seven kilometers further north, Israel has no more cause for attack. So Israel is now operating under the name of limited operations, saying that they're going to get rid of the tunnels on the border side of Hezbollah.

[Anchor]
Professor, another axis of resistance to Israel, Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli attack. Hamas How do you think the ground war will affect you this time?

[Park Hyun Do]
Hamas is, in fact, destroyed. Hamas is no longer an important factor. Now all elements are Hezbollah, which has collapsed considerably more easily than expected. It's a situation where you're incapacitated. However, it is not completely neutralized, so if Israel's ground forces enter, Hamas members could fight against Israel. So Hamas is not an important factor right now, but an important factor right now is Hezbollah and Iran's participation in the war that you can't just watch Hezbollah collapse. So, the next response is actually more of an unprecedented concern to how much Iran will respond again. Obviously, Israel will retaliate. The point of view now is how Iran responds there after that retaliation.

[Anchor]
The need for the Korean government to actively prepare for such uncertainties in the Middle East seems to increase, such as protecting Korean residents, what measures do you think are necessary?

[Park Hyun Do]
The fact of the matter is that there's not so much we can do. It's very common sense for Korean residents to avoid it. Other than that, there's practically nothing we can do. So in the current situation, the area where fighting is taking place. The most important role for now is to protect the safety of Koreans in Israel as much as possible because it could affect Koreans in Iran and Israel and Koreans in Arab countries.

[Anchor]
Professor, since we import about 70% of crude oil from the Middle East, how do you think we should respond to the increase in crude oil prices?

[Park Hyun Do]
Let me tell you again.Ma is not that big of a thing that we can do economically. Because it's not just us, but the whole world can't do anything about it. If there's a war. So we have no choice but to think of a way to minimize the damage, but we're doing a good job of controlling the movements of our merchant ships, so I don't worry too much.However, the rapid rise in oil prices is not something our government can do, but it should be done on a global level, so we have no choice but to carefully examine and prepare in advance the way the government has been doing to avoid being involved in such a war.

[Anchor]
I see. That's all for today. Park Hyun also joined Professor Euromena Institute of Sogang University. Thank you.