[NewsNow] US "sending North Korean troops" vs Russia "false information"...Like a proxy war?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The U.S. government has made an official statement for the first time, saying there is evidence of North Korean troops sending troops to Russia. On the other hand, the Russian government denied sending troops and warned of South Korea's involvement. Let's take a look at this with Cho Han-beom, a chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Welcome.

[Cho Han-beom]
Hello,

[Anchor]
Russia said they didn't send it, and the U.S. said there was evidence of it. The positions of the two countries are very different right now.

[Cho Han-beom]
What is certain is that there is a North Korean People's Army in Russia. Because even before the Russo-Russian War, the People's Army and the Social Front Engineering Bureau were out at large construction sites such as St. Petersburg and Moscow. Construction crews. It's because they're soldiers. Then there are almost 8 to 9 million rounds of ammunition weapons, and there is no way that maintenance, repair, management, and warranty agents cannot go. According to intelligence obtained from Russian soldiers who participated in the Russia-U.S. war last year, they saw the People's Army at the scene. However, it was not a combat force at the time.

So it must have been an engineer in the back or a management agent. But the problem this time is not that it was a problem in October, but the additional large-scale troops are now 1500, 1500, 3,000 troops are now in eastern Russia. They're not on the front line yet. That's enough to identify. So it's okay to say that it's a fact that 3,000 people are already there.

[Anchor]
Even though there is a lot of evidence, it's because of the international repercussions that Russia hasn't sent it, right?

[Cho Han-beom]
Because for me, this is Putin and Kim Jong-un joining hands with the devil. Because it's a very dangerous team. From Russia's point of view, if this is confirmed, it will expand into an international war. Then NATO will also consider supporting its troops. NATO troops may participate in the war, or NATO may recruit large-scale mercenaries through private military companies and send them to Ukraine. And the other one is us. Because if the North Korean military participates in the front line of Ukraine, it becomes our war. Because if the North Korean military acquires military skills there and receives support from Russia in various forms, this poses a fatal threat to our security. So we have no choice but to respond. Then, one of the things Putin's regime fears most is that South Korea's weapons of destruction are provided to Ukraine.

Or if a large amount of ammunition goes. It's hard for Russia to handle. So Russia received troops in desperate situations, but the consequences of this, this is not easy. So, until now, both sides have continued to deny the rumor of supplying ammunition. This is a military force, so of course, we have to deny it. However, if they are sent to the front line soon, there will be 100% of the prisoners of war. But at that time, you can't take it out.

[Anchor]
Anyway, the U.S. government has maintained its position very carefully, but for the first time, it has come out to acknowledge the possibility of sending troops. That's how much evidence there is. Can the U.S. position proceed to NATO's position soon?

[Cho Han-beom]
Same. Because the United States is a NATO member and leads NATO. So, the NIS has 12,000 people on the 18th, storm troop. Four brigades, including the sniper corps of the 11th Army, and one is 3,000 people. It will be dispatched with this combat force. He was in this position, but he said that NATO and the United States could not confirm it, but now he confirmed the fact that he was dispatched. However, whether the troops will be combat troops, and whether they will be deployed to the front lines of the Kursk or Donbas regions in the future. Or we haven't decided what it's for yet, so far.

[Anchor]
However, if it is put in, there are various analyses, but the language is different and the topography is quite different from that of North Korea, so there is a view that this can be adapted.

[Cho Han-beom]
What's curious is that North Korea's Storm Corps and Light Infantry Brigade are the main pillars, but as you said, North Korea is a mountainous area. Then, what is the role of North Korea's Light Infantry Brigade is to arm themselves and be quickly deployed to the rear. The main focus is rear disturbance. I'm not armed enough to fight an all-out war. But on the Ukrainian side, it's a plain. In addition, the language is different now, but it's being put in the back of Ukraine? Then it's annihilation. And then let's say, for example, if we get troops from Uganda or Tanzania in Africa, how many weeks can these people train and play a role in the Korean War?

That's impossible. So, will those troops be put on the front line so far? It is questionable whether it will be able to fight even if it is deployed. The number of special operations forces in North Korea is estimated to be 100,000 to 200,000. But this is actually a similar concept to our regular army, and the rest are 1 million and 1.2 million, but the rest are not properly trained and farmed. That's why it's a special operation force, but it's just a regular military force in a general country.

[Anchor]
Anyway, there are about 10,000 people in the NIS right now, but what I'm curious about is that it stops at 10,000? Or can I send more?

[Cho Han-beom]
This is the beginning. The reason why I joined hands with the devil is because from the perspective of the Kim Jong-un regime, we sent troops from 1964 to 73 years in the Vietnam War. Then at first, the medical unit, the pigeon unit, and the air force unit went first. After that, Maengho, Cheongryong, Baekho, and the combat unit went. Then, up to 50,000 people were stationed, and the total number of employees was 300,000. And about 5,000 South Korean soldiers were killed in action. Then that battlefield is a war of attrition. It's different from the Vietnam War. It's a large-scale all-out war. Then, it will consume extreme military resources.

Then 10,000 people can't stay the same. It's shrinking. Then you have to supplement it. Then, if the war is prolonged, we have to change the shift. Then you fall into an endless quagmire. That's why he made such a dangerous choice. As the NIS announced, if it is really deployed to the battlefield, it will result in massive casualties. It is also unclear whether the dispatch of troops as an independent operation unit will be operated on the front line or a mixed military system mixed with Russia because the language does not work. These problems are not solved by a few weeks of military training.

[Anchor]
That's why it's the beginning. 10,000 people said it was the beginning, but inside North Korea, they say they have quarantined the families of dispatched soldiers. Was that worrying about internal agitation?

[Cho Han-beom]
You have to look at it differently. Because where do you move 10,000 families? The story seems a little distorted to me, so officers live together. So the officers are gone, so these people can move around naturally. But quarantine 10,000 families? Where's the house? So if you quarantine them, do they stay still? If it's a family of 10,000 people, it's already 300,000 people if you count a family of four. That seems to me a little misaligned. But in the case of the officers, the families were living, so it's possible that they moved because they left.

[Anchor]
However, if the dispatch period is prolonged, there will likely be agitation inside.

[Cho Han-beom]
Of course there's a children's song. When we dispatched the Vietnam War, our parents opposed it, so volunteers secretly went. But this is a compulsory conscription, and now the Russo-Western War broke out in February 2022, with 1 million casualties on both sides for two and a half years. Then, even if 10,000 people go to the front line, they will suffer from severe consumption of fighters. Then, if it spreads inside North Korea, they will go to war with others without justification, and now the two Koreas reject the issue of unification and hostilities in other countries. I'm going to go to Russia and go to war. Then there's no justification.

[Anchor]
Ukraine is also very sensitive to the dispatch of North Korean troops. It is said that they have opened a hotline. We will briefly tell you what is being delivered through the hotline. Let's listen to it for a moment. I'll give you a side dish of meat in Korean, so surrender. It's being sent to the hotline right now. Can this cause a stir in the North Korean military?

[Cho Han-beom]
There must be a children's song. Because a war without justification without any preparation at all. Now, people who were specialized only in the reunification of the two Koreas go to Russia and suddenly fight a war without justification. So it is a situation that is quite vulnerable to psychological warfare. During the Vietnam War, we were dispatched, but a small number of soldiers were dispatched to North Korea. Like an aviator. And about 100 North Korean People's Army psychological warfare agents settled toward us. So if the People's Army is active on the front line, we can support something like a Ukrainian psychological war. Because we're much more specialized. So, there has already been a case here where North Korea has begged for the suspension of psychological warfare broadcasts. If that goes to the front line, it can have a significant impact if a psychological war specialized in the People's Army develops in a state of large-scale desertion or war fatigue.

[Anchor]
We need to see what will be leaked through the hotline in the future, but anyway, North Korea, which is declaring a break in relations with the South, continues to send garbage balloons, and what came in this time is not filth, but a flyer against the South, which is quite political. He included a raw criticism of the president and his wife.

[Cho Han-beom]
It's a filth balloon, a garbage balloon. The filth was the first one. This is the 30th time. Only the first and second rounds of filth were contained. It's bad for humans to send water. So it was judged that it was a violation of the armistice agreement, because it was different from our private organization balloons.

[Anchor]
That's why they changed it to trash.

[Cho Han-beom]
That's right. I changed it to trash. The leaflets are not ready at this time. And this period was a response to our private organizations. But now, the wind doesn't blow south, that is, north. Now, that side is responding to the Korean military's psychological warfare broadcast with a psychological warfare. So this is a psychological battle between the authorities. So, I would have prepared leaflets and accumulated data in the meantime. So it's hard to drop the balloon exactly where you want it to be. However, if you know the wind direction and speed, you can drop it in similar areas if you install a timer. North Korea's trash balloons, leaflet balloons, in a way that costs a lot less, and in a way that's prepared and planned. The likelihood of a leaflet balloon coming has increased very high.

[Anchor]
Looking at the flyer, the intention to increase the intensity of the psychological warfare seems clear, but it fell right around the presidential office. Still, it may not be accurate, but there seems to be an analysis of whether it was sent for that place.

[Cho Han-beom]
Our private organization also uses timers. If you install a timer, the balloon bursts at the point where that time has passed after a certain period of time. The tied shear system. So we can't exactly drop it in Yongsan, but we're at a disadvantage for leaflet balloons. The wind blows almost every time from the north to the south, but the south doesn't. So if you accumulate that data, you can drop it in similar areas if you know the wind direction and speed. I can't be exact.

[Anchor]
The drop point can be more sophisticated, as the data builds up.

[Cho Han-beom]
But I'm not sure.

[Anchor]
Anyway, we always have to be vigilant about that part because we changed it to a South Korean squadron this time, but there is always anxiety that we don't know what to put inside.

[Cho Han-beom]
That's the grey area provocation. It causes confusion after fear. Then things that are unclear about the subject and difficult for us to respond to. So, what North Korea wants to maximize that part is to use that method to induce the South Korean military to stop psychological warfare broadcasting.

[Anchor]
Anyway, Chairman Kim Jong-un seems to be taking out various cards just before the U.S. presidential election, but there is a photo that has been released that has drawn attention, so it would be good if you could show it. Chairman Kim Jong-un has unveiled an ICBM strategic missile base. I visited there, and when I saw it, there were forest roads and tunnels.

[Cho Han-beom]
I think the production is a bit harsh. Because the giant missile mobile tel can't get to the forest road. So I think he showed that he was intentionally hidden.

[Anchor]
It felt like I was going to a secret place.

[Cho Han-beom]
That's right. I think the production is really bad. However, this is the first time that it has shown the inside of an ICBM base. That's a hypersonic missile. a glider type So hypersonic missiles directed at us. Then, we show both ICBMs toward the United States at the same time. So for the United States, it's a message that you'll have to negotiate with us after the presidential election. Next, it's a hypersonic missile about us, because it's our dragon. That's because we sent troops to Ukraine, but we have nuclear weapons and there is nothing wrong with our defense posture, so don't think about anything else. two effects It can be seen as an effect that has both South Korea and the U.S.

[Anchor]
In a way, it is aimed at expanding this message, but I saw the ICBM base this time, but what I paid more attention to is the emblem on the clothes Chairman Kim Jong-un is wearing. I think it would be nice if you could show me the graphic. The emblem and the mark of the chairman of the State Council became quite big.

[Cho Han-beom]
To put it simply, your authority is attached to everything. It's attached to bikes and cars.

[Anchor]
But has that ever been big?

[Cho Han-beom]
So far, there hasn't been one. There's no reason to put your emblem on your clothes like that. If you look at it that way, that's actually self-exaggeration. Various internal crises in the system, self-exercise in these situations. If you really say that authority is solid, you don't have to show it like that.

[Anchor]
The fact that the emblem got bigger is a sense of crisis.

[Cho Han-beom]
That's right. That's how you see it. Because the president of a general country also wears his emblem here? That's not true. In that way, it is also a kind of show-off act that shows that the system is strong and self-expletive.

[Anchor]
You said it was a symbol of anxiety about the system, but I think we should be wary of what kind of provocations we will make ahead of the U.S. presidential election due to anxiety. This has been Cho Han-beom, a chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Thank you.