Why Tesla-Apple Shares Should Look Together, Year-End Stock Investment Strategy

■ Broadcast: YTN Radio FM 94.5 (09:00-10:00)
■ Host: Reporter Cho Tae-hyun
■ Air date: December 12, 2024 (Thursday)
■ Talk: Cha Young-joo, Director of the Institute for i-Asset Economics

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

◆ Reporter Cho Tae-hyun (hereinafter referred to as Cho Tae-hyun): Reliable information for 14 million investors. Useful information. It's time for the Live Stock Institute to inform you of the information that makes money above all else. Today, we will be with Cha Young-joo, director of the Ai Asset Economic Research Institute. Welcome, director.

◇ Cha Young-joo, Director of the Ai Asset Economic Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as Cha Young-joo): Yes, hello.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: The KOSPI has been very unstable in the impeachment process, but recently, it has recovered a little and seems to be more than strong today. It's going up to around 0.6%, so how should I look at the current situation?

◇ Cha Young-joo: The most important thing is that the KOSDAQ hasn't broken its low point too much, and it's fortunate that the KOSDAQ is relatively strong today, and when we look at the stock now, there's an absolute line in its own way. When we trade 10,000 won and 5,000 won, you know the one that sells like 4,990 won even if it's 5,000 won. Just as there is resistance if it exceeds 5,000 won for no reason, when looking at this index, you should see such a large value, but the KOSPI standard is 2400. I recently broke the 2400 for a while, and it's asking if I'm staying here for a long time or if I'm going to break the 2400 for a while.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: You broke it for a day and came up right away.

◇ Cha Young-joo: It came up right away. I'm glad right now. So, I'm still nervous, but if the KOSPI settles at the 2,400-point level, there's no one who doesn't know the political schedule that we can easily talk about now. At times like this, the importance of the chart is relatively more prominent. Of course, I'm a person who focuses more on fundamentals and financial analysis, but in the short term, technicality is very important because when technical analysis is useful, I think it's useful when a lot of people are interested. Because all the information is melted into the chart, many people are buying below 2400 and the index is showing at 2400 now, and today it looks like foreigners are buying Hynix. We'll have to check it later, but Nvidia is missing recently, and foreigners are buying Hynix today. Of course, it will be linked to derivatives. But seeing that there are some perceptions that this is cheap, I think the following Monday will be important.If you don't break the 2400 by Monday, I can tell you that the stock has caught a signal that has caught the bottom in the short term, let alone gone up.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. Then, what's going up now can be seen as a technical rebound.

◇ Cha Young-joo: That's right. It's hard to be sure yet, but I can tell you that 70 out of 100 points of expression is blocked and entered to catch the upward momentum.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. To some extent, it can be said that there is room for a rebound, but he also mentioned political uncertainty a little while ago. To start with this, should we see that the market is reflecting this part of the impeachment vote on the 14th?

◇ Cha Young-joo: I think you should look at it like that. So now, we're going to propose and vote on the weekend, but anyway, more than 70% of the people want this case to end with impeachment.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: People were so surprised. Because something unimaginable happened

◇ Cha Young-joo: Then whether the ruling party takes power or the opposition party takes power is the next question, and there are people who are confused about the current situation, so what if you hand over the power now? It's not this question, but 70% of the people are thinking that let's take a legal way to solve this mess. I told you this based on the polls.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I came out in the morning.

◇ Cha Young-joo: That's why if those things aren't resolved now, it's uncertain, but if you look at the parts of the reflection like you just said, 70% of the people are expecting this, and it was last Saturday, but it didn't work anymore, and in the meantime, a lot of ruling party lawmakers are turning around, don't you see that? So, if this doesn't work, of course, the opposition party will continue to try it, but we're just like that. It's better to keep getting hit and finish. I don't know if this expression is appropriate for the elderly or those who have returned from the military, but it's better to prevent uncertainty and end it. If it's like this, whether it's right again tonight or tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, it's a little bit, but if you think about it the other way around, the market will be reflected in these areas, and if it passes, the market may rebound in a short period of time, but it's already reflected to some extent in terms of new momentum from then on. I think it would be right to interpret it like that.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I think I need to give you some notice on this part of the poll you mentioned a while ago. This is a poll conducted by Embrain Public. A poll was conducted on 1,5 men and women over the age of 18 across the country, and 78% of the respondents said they were in favor of impeaching President Yoon, 20% against it, but 2% did not respond. The sample error was 95% confidence level plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, and the response rate was 14.4%. For more information, please refer to the website of the Central Election Public Opinion Review Committee. Anyway, if this is the case, assuming that the impeachment will be rejected the day after tomorrow, doesn't this give great uncertainty to another stock market? What if it gets smashed?

◇ Cha Young-joo: So, as we see it now, 70% of the people want to impeach and that those things are reflected

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: It's already on the shelf. Stock prices also

◇ Cha Young-joo: But if it's rejected and it doesn't end with it, but how should the people solve this problem? If that's the case with the question of who is leading this country right now, the downward volatility may increase. That's why we're like this. For example, when you say that the company will perform well depending on the performance season, why is the stock price missing when the performance is good? That's because it's Shelf Young. Now it's the shelf-young stage, and the scary thing about shelf-young is when the direction comes out the other way than you think. Then the volatility of the stock price increases. But if it becomes Shelf Young and it comes out as it is, the stock price will stay rather than go up. It's going to be calm. It's calm. Of course. Because of that, the index's rise to 2400 now broke 2400, so there may be many reasons for the 2400 rise, such as the short-selling redemption of Chinese-related stocks due to China's economic stimulus, but if you look at the index alone, you'll probably say that a lot when you look around the atmosphere that's slowly being screened. Hey, don't you have to buy it then? Then if the political and political schedule becomes like this, shouldn't you go in beforehand at least now? There are some people who are acting. You can think of those people as "Shelf Young."

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Then let's look at the investment strategy in a little while. Let's take a look at the items a little more. The big opposition party has handled next year's budget plan alone. It was a reduced budget, but I think there were some stocks that were affected by this. What do you have?

◇ Cha Young-joo: First of all, Article 673 is now passed. Now, if I want to accurately use the terminology, this is inside the National Assembly. So anyway, it was within the opposition party. Now, I don't know when the cabinet meeting will be held after the resolution of the cabinet meeting, but now the president has to sign it to declare it, so this detailed budget has not been released yet. What is unusual is that it is one of the most important events for the National Assembly to pass the current budget. This is because after the government budget is set and the government budget is set, each ministry's budget is confirmed, and when each ministry's budget is confirmed, the local government's budget is also confirmed. Now, the blood is circulating. In any case, it's a positive thing about the political schedule and the schedule we're going back to this country.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: First of all, the uncertainty in this part has decreased a bit.

◇ Cha Young-joo: That's right. First of all, the budget bill has been passed, so the National Assembly is working anyway. Of course, there are now 119 pending bills, which have not passed. This is also a problem, but money has to run anyway. One of the characteristics of yesterday was that if the government changes now, the current government will suffer damage, and then the next government will be able to put forward policies. So, one of the common denominators is that the stocks related to the low birth rate issue and education issue showed a lot of signs of raising the market price yesterday.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I think those are the kind of events that anyone should see.

◇ Cha Young-joo: So investors find that common denominator, and on the contrary, the government has poured a lot of money into this. I think there was a single investor's cry about things like, "Please pay attention to this no matter what kind of government comes for my life, our future, and things like this."

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: But I think there are some places that were a little bad influence. For example, how was the atmosphere over here, such as the stocks related to the blue whale or the nuclear power plant?

◇ Cha Young-joo: Since martial law, the related stocks have already moved quite a lot, the first thing that you've been talking about is that the big nuclear power plant traders are out first, and on the first day and the second day, politicians are now moving on who is the next favorite. After a while, these things are moving. Since the budget plan has been finalized, most of the 50 billion won related to blue whales has now been cut, and there are new bills among the pending bills as I study for other broadcasts. So self-rescue modification takes a long time, but the semiconductor law, the renewable energy related law, the ESG related law, the nuclear power plant infrastructure related law.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: They're all important things.

◇ Cha Young-joo: It's all important. But because it is an important agenda that can change Korea's new ecosystem, there are parts about those things, and it's stopped now. Those are not just budget issues, but these are the areas that need to be supported by the new law, which now have to pass the standing committee and have not yet passed the standing committee. After that, the judiciary committee has to revise the wording, but it's a bit unfortunate that it's stopped.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: It's the part that the political community should pay most attention to, but now the political community's nerves have completely gone elsewhere.

◇ Cha Young-joo: It may be a little different from stocks, but the medical laws, the R&D laws, and the first new city laws are all stopped now.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: That's a shame. In this situation, I think we should also point out our investment strategy. You mentioned it earlier, but you said that there are people who are entering in this situation. What should we do?

◇ Cha Young-joo: People talk a lot about cases of impeachment in the past. I saw him during the Roh Moo Hyun presidency and then during the Park Geun Hye presidency, and both of them, in a way, I heard the word impeachment for the first time during the Roh Moo Hyun presidency. I didn't even know there was such a thing. It was volatile because I heard for the first time that I could impeach the president. And then, under President Park Geun Hye, the word impeachment was no longer a new word, and it was already beginning to wobble before that. However, since the impeachment was resolved, the stock market has risen twice, so many people say that the stock market will rise again this time. At first, all those things were dominated, but now there is a little criticism. If you look at a phenomenon, you have to look around it. But at that time, the global economy was alive and Korea's economy was on the rise. In terms of the upward trend, it was a phase where it fell on the stone roots for a while, shook, and then went back.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: So there was political uncertainty, but the overall economic conditions were alive.

◇ Cha Young-joo: And it was done early, and now that the economy itself is now in a difficult situation, and it's not a time when we leaned on China like we did in the past, so of course, there are positive factors to resolve uncertainty this time, but what are you going to get momentum after the uncertainty is resolved? There are some doubts in this area. That's what I'm saying.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: It means there are a lot of question marks.

◇ Cha Young-joo: I can tell you that you have to take that into account because we had the momentum for the global economy before that.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: In fact, this part of the Constitutional Court was the world's biggest hit in the 1987 system, but I didn't think that we would see the impeachment of the president like this three times. In this situation, if you tell investors to never do this, what would it be?

◇ Cha Young-joo: I think a lot of people are in a hurry right now, and in a way, it's an opportunity, but I think you should look at the thoughts of theme stocks like this. Theme stocks are also different from the past. So, in the case of yesterday, most people talked about "quantum" yesterday. Quantum computers were mentioned, and before the policy-related week I mentioned, for example, there were things about presidential candidates, but they couldn't go for two days. So what you have to see now is that if you want to move as a theme stock, 1, 2, 3, and 4 will be grouped into one theme, right? Then if number 1 hits the upper limit, number 2 hits the upper limit. Then, shouldn't you buy number 3 and 4 next time? They have to gather, but surprisingly, many people don't participate. It's because I followed it here and afterwards, they were all disciples. As for the current theme stocks and what kind of theme will move today, I think you should take a good look at the part that watching is an investment rather than trying to make money during a certain period of confusion. He will argue that conservative watching is a fundamental story and that you are doing it because you have nothing to say, but watching is also a very important investment. How much painstaking time and stuff do you guys do until Warren Buffett decides to make one investment when it comes to investing? That's why you can't just go up today. You have to follow that because it went up. Of course, it's possible in a bull market. In the bull market, even if you bite each other, it will be the next day, but in the bear market now, the sale of themed stocks can be more poisonous.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: So it's not a good strategy.

◇ Cha Young-joo: You have to think the other way around. That's what I'll say.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Industry themes can be like that. The policy theme is .

◇ Cha Young-joo: One thing I'm comforting about is that I've been in the stock market for a long time and investors are getting wiser. Yesterday, shipbuilders reported new prices. But now, regardless of that policy, of course, at first, I moved to a policy related to the United States and then fell out. But if you look at the background that went up, it's a performance. So even in this state, you're looking at the performance.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Because it's supercycle right now.

◇ Cha Young-joo: Since it's a cycle, you look at the performance and in the case of automobiles, the performance is unstable because the semiconductor can't move. So, I think investors have become very smart, and rather, a strategy of collecting things about performance stocks rather than doing that, but I'm not sure about that. Since there are a lot of ETF products right now, there are a lot of ETF products, so the strategy of collecting related ETFs right now is that if you say, "Yes, if the political situation stabilizes, the stock price will go up," ETF investment will be a great alternative rather than individual stocks.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. Investors have become wise, so look for other alternatives. Politics, especially the theme stocks of presidential candidates, is not an investment or speculation, but it's just a gamble, so I hope you don't look at this side. Let's take a quick look at the U.S. as well. With the New York stock market going well, the Nasdaq has exceeded 20,000. Why are you going so well?

◇ Cha Young-joo: At first, Nvidia led and then Tesla led and Apple led, so they're a little jealous of each other in a way. It's a stomachache. It's like that. If we talk about it, my cousin's stomach hurts because he bought the land, but it's all good, but to be honest, it's FOMO syndrome.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Nvidia's performance slowed slightly. But it's all good because it's going well, but why is Tesla going so well?

◇ Cha Young-joo: You have to watch Apple as well. You have to watch Tesla and Apple together. If you look at the Nvidia chart right now, Nvidia is resting. In a way, I can tell you that it's resting at its peak and it's a bit of a digest of Chinese supplies. But in the meantime, the two stocks that came out are Apple and Tesla. It's a little confusing just by looking at Tesla. Is this electric car working right now? No matter what Elon Musk does with the president, can I say? When you see Apple go up, there is a high interest in consumption and the use of IT. In the case of the United States, isn't there a talk of FOMC about interest rate cuts? With employment stable now, prices are rising slightly, so if you look at Apple, Tesla, and Apple together because of these parts about consumption, other consumption-related ETFs are also solid. So, why can't Tesla go to a secondary battery in Korea when only Tesla goes that well? That's because the connection is a little different. Now, it's a strategy that consumers in the U.S. are leading, so Nvidia is taking a break.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: But the thing that ignited Tesla is Elon Musk's close relationship with Trump. However, looking at Trump's talk now, the relationship seems to be getting a little worse little by little. Musk is running around too much. There's a review like this. If the two sides split, will this affect the stock price?

◇ Cha Young-joo: It's bound to have an impact. So the reason why the stock price is going up is whether it goes up to its intrinsic value or up to plus alpha, but Tesla has both now.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: There's also the essence.

◇ Cha Young-joo: There is. But in the second Trump period, sons will play a role, so there's something they're talking about right now. I think you should also look at the dynamics with Musk in the part that we are only taking loyalists, and you should always keep that in mind. Then you have to buy those things now. Many people ask me extremely. I have to buy it, so I'll bet one vote on it. Because the trend is alive, so when should you sell it? When the trend is down, you sell it. So other than this method, I'm now at

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: You said something like a textbook.

◇ Cha Young-joo: In a way, I can tell you that this textbook is the most necessary answer now.

◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. I'll end with what I've said so far with Cha's personal opinion. So far, I've looked at various issues surrounding the stock market with Cha Young-joo, director of the I Asset Economic Research Institute. Thank you for talking today.

◇ Cha Young-joo: Thank you.