North Korea launches intercontinental ballistic missile with 'Hwasong artillery-19' ICBM

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Lee Ho-ryeong, Director of the Security Strategy Center of the Korea Institute for Defense Development

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
This is a Korean Peninsula review time to analyze North Korean issues and diplomatic security news on the Korean Peninsula in depth. Today, Dr. Lee Ho-ryeong, the head of the Security Strategy Center of the National Defense Research Institute, came out. Welcome. As North Korea made ICBM provocations, he said, "This is the final final round." He expressed his confidence, saying, "Technically, it has improved considerably."


The moment I heard that it was the final final version, what came to mind was that in 2017, North Korea declared the completion of nuclear force after the first test launch of the Hwasong-15. I think it's in a very similar context to that situation. Looking at North Korea's development related to ICBM since 2017, it has been related to the Hwasong-15, followed by the Hwasong-17, the Hwasong-18, and the Hwasong-19 type, which is said to be the complete version this time, mainly explained in three aspects of the ICBM test every year. Next, how much has the flight distance increased? Then, the third one explained how much time was increased, but in the case of the Hwasong-15 type in 2017, it went up to 4,000km at first, and the Hwasong-15, 17, and 18 were launched again last year. So, from 2022 to 2023, when the nuclear force completion method was announced, to the Hwasong-19 type as of 2024, if you look at the height, distance, and time related to ICBM, it can be seen that the height and time of the height have increased.

The flight distance is almost 1000km, which is similar. Then we can think about why they had to announce this, but Mars-15, 17, is largely based on liquid, and Mars-18, 19, is based on solid fuel. In terms of the range, the Hwaseong-15 type has already come out to 5,000km through the high angle, so the range is usually two to three times the high angle. Then it's enough to fly to Washington, D.C., in the United States. Then I said that the Hwasong-19 type is also at its maximum, but this is also more than 15,000km, and I can't find anything so strategically unique when I did it with 15, 17, 18, 19.

[Anchor]
North Korea itself has named it the final final version, but from the Hwasong-15 type, there seems to be no significant technological difference, right?


So, it went from liquid ICBM to solid ICBM, and in the case of warhead shape in front of it, compared to type 18, it shows that it is taking the step of developing multi-warhead ICBMs by showing a more lumpy style.

[Anchor]
I think it would be good if you could show me the shape of a warhead. The most striking thing about Hwasung-19 is that the warhead shape in front of it has become stubbier than the type 18, what does that mean?


You can put several warheads in it. That's why it's usually called a daht warhead. I tried to put in 3 to 5 shots, so the top looks a little lumpy overall.

[Anchor]
You can attack multiple places at once, right?


That's right. But the overall trend is that North Korea eventually wants to go to a multi-warhead ICBM, given that the Hwasong-18 is also going a little bit more blunt than the 17th or 15th.

[Anchor]
The launch pad graphic is also coming out this time, so if we talk about it, we thought that the launch pad this time was also using a new launch pad and a more extended launch pad, but if you look at the release, you're using it as it was before, right?


That's right. Previously, North Korea showed a uranium enrichment facility in September and a new 12-axis TEL in October, so I thought it was a much bigger new type of ICBM for the next North, but this time, it used 11 axes for test-firing and 11 axes for the existing Hwasong-17. So it's almost the same as writing the 11th axis.

[Anchor]
There are 11 wheels.


That's right. If you do it on both sides, it's 22.

[Anchor]
I've revealed one more launch pad, one more line of wheels, but I don't think I've used it. So far, that's how it's being analyzed. Since it is currently being sent to Russia, I was wondering if Russia would be introducing re-entry technology by receiving technology from Russia, but has it been confirmed that it is not?


That's right. In order to re-enter, you don't actually have to fire at a high angle, but you have to fire at a normal angle. Therefore, it is necessary to test-fire such as going up to 100 kilometers through a normal angle of 30 to 40 degrees and then coming back inside. As mentioned earlier, if you look at the development of ICBMs since the declaration of the completion of nuclear force in 2017, the Hwasong-15 type, you can see that the ICBM capability has been increased, and that it has been developed is being announced now, focusing on continuing to increase the height of the elevation and the extension of time.

[Anchor]
The fact that it was shot at a high angle again means that the re-entry technology has not been tested yet. Then, in other words, from the perspective of North Korea sending troops to Russia, this technology is still in desperate need, so we can see it like this, right?


That's right. If you look at Kim Jong Un's remarks, Kim Yo Jong's remarks, and Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hee's remarks in Russia, don't you think North Korea continues to emphasize that it is an absolute line when it comes to nuclear force and that it can never be given up? In that respect, I think it proves in a way that North Korea is facing technical limitations despite its technological advances in strengthening nuclear force and that it is time for more advanced external technology to overcome this technology.

[Anchor]
Since North Korea is showing off its nuclear power, we have summarized the remarks of Vice Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hee and Vice Foreign Minister Kim Yo-jong in a graphic manner. Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hee visited Russia and talked about me again. Strengthening nuclear weapons and the Korean Peninsula could be an explosive situation at any time. He made such threatening remarks, and Vice Minister Kim Yo-jong also strengthened his nuclear armament and did not change his route. A few days ago, Chairman Kim Jong-un said the same thing. Is this a difference from the previous nuclear economic parallelism that North Korea has put forward?


As you can see, it was the nuclear force economy parallel in 2013 that began with North Korea's advancement of nuclear force. Since the Byeongjin Line, North Korea has continued to develop with a full focus on nuclear rather than economy, and since the 8th Party Congress in 2021, the term Byeongjin Line has rarely been used. Since then, he has emphasized the need to focus more on the nuclear force strengthening route and continue to speed up the strengthening of nuclear force.

[Anchor]
I'm a little worried because people keep saying that they're strengthening nuclear weapons. Some people might think that it's a sign of a nuclear test after the ICBM provocation.


The preparations for the seventh nuclear test have been ongoing since two years ago, and when North Korea shows this trend and ICBM characteristics related to multiple warheads, it is not an exaggeration to say that the possibility of a seventh nuclear test is always open to North Korea's small warhead for multiple warheads and the possibility of a seventh nuclear test presented at the 8th party congress.

[Anchor]
First of all, the ICBM provocation is just a few days before the U.S. presidential election, so the nuclear test card can be taken out after the U.S. presidential election. There are a lot of people who see it that way. What do you personally think?


First of all, I don't think it's going to have that much of an impact. No matter who the current U.S. presidential election is, North Korea has launched another Hwasong-19 in a close and unpredictable situation, and coincidentally, it can be seen as a form of gesture to change or change U.S. North Korea policy in a phase of dialogue, depending on who will become the next U.S. presidential election, as if it had entered the dialogue phase after declaring the completion of nuclear force in 2017.

[Anchor]
First of all, it's time for the military fire and we need to see if we will actually carry it out. Regarding the dispatch of North Korean troops, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in a media interview that the North Korean military could be engaged in combat within the next few days. It's imminent, can I express it like this?


First of all, I think the news from the U.S. and our intelligence authorities and Ukraine is almost the same as that the North Korean military has moved to the Kursk region and is practicing. Then, in the end, everyone is watching North Korea's current movement and changes in the war in Ukraine, and there is enough information sharing, so I think all the news related to it is reliable to some extent. In that sense, the fact that there is a countdown can be considered before and after the U.S. presidential election, depending on who the U.S. presidential election will be, if Russia or North Korea become a little more preferred candidate, we can also think about the input part to put pressure on the battlefield in the early stages. In that respect, I think it is more likely to be deployed after the U.S. presidential election.

[Anchor]
I'm still cautious because I have to see the results of the U.S. presidential election, but I keep expressing Putin as a friend anyway. Assuming the possibility of former President Trump becoming the next U.S. president and assuming a scenario, will Putin or Chairman Kim Jong-un be more free from the issue of sending troops? How do I look at it?


For Putin or Kim Jong-un, it is a little more America-first, so President Trump wants to focus more on the U.S. issue and end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. Then, in order to create a quick end to the war, North Korea wants to end the war in the early stages, but there is a high possibility of operating more military or troops.

[Anchor]
You thought there was a possibility that more spaces could be opened. If you look at President Zelensky's story now, I originally heard that he sent North Korean special forces, but he also talked about engineering units.


I think I mentioned all the different types. If you look at the media interviews. First of all, many North Korean workers will be dispatched to unmanned aerial vehicle factories in connection with unmanned aerial vehicles. And in the case of empty bottles, you need empty bottles for various situations. After that, the special forces were dispatched, so there is a high possibility that various types of soldiers entered the Russian region to train and were mobilized to make munitions products at factories.

[Anchor]
From the perspective of North Korea, if you look at the list released now, it means that up to three generals went with the military. The fact that even three generals who play key roles have been sent is that North Korea is actually making all-out efforts on the issue of sending troops. Can I see it like this?


Coincidentally, he's the deputy chief of staff. The head of the Special Operations Force went. Then there was Lee Chang-ho, the Reconnaissance General Bureau, which is the Reconnaissance General Bureau, and in the case of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, it is the best unit that works against South Korea. In the end, these teams were included in Russia's visit to Russia, including the situation of the war in Russia and the drones used in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the parts that can comprehensively judge, evaluate, and develop special forces operations.

[Anchor]
So the North Korean military has been dispatched there, so can we stay still? There are talks that we should also consider step-by-step measures. Ukraine is also asking for weapons aid. What kind of response do you think we're going to have?


First of all, isn't it saying that our choice will take very flexible step-by-step measures depending on how North Korea does it? The North Korean military has not yet been directly deployed to the battlefield, and I think that part of the flexible measures will come out in earnest after being deployed. As I mentioned earlier, one of the biggest concerns we have in case of an emergency is that the Reconnaissance General Bureau takes a lot of gray area strategies related to provocations, and in the case of special forces, we have a lot of tasks related to the gray area, such as rear attacks and disturbances, so I think the monitoring team or the evaluation team that evaluates their capabilities on the battlefield will go and analyze them.

[Anchor]
Minister Kim Yong-hyun insisted. I think this will be a point that a military that can grasp even information should be dispatched. Finally, anyway, North Korea sent the military that Russia wanted. Now, in a way, there seems to be a resourcefulness battle between Putin and Kim Jong-un to get more from each other, so who do you think will get what they want first?


First of all, the war is going on. Personally, I think Putin has no choice but to get a lot first. The fact that a country that is at war has already signed a new treaty with North Korea so that Article 4 can work is to use resources first. The next thing you get is to give it to the back, and no one knows what to do with the back after the war.

[Anchor]
The situation is different.


That's right.

[Anchor]
I can't be sure right now whether Chairman Kim Jong-un can get everything he wants, but anyway, there is a war now, so Putin's benefits are greater in the current situation. This was Dr. Lee Ho-ryeong, the head of the Security Strategy Center at the Korea Defense Institute. Thank you.